N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market. A lot of people are calling for an emergency rate cut, but we are at full employment. Rate cuts at this point are pushing on a string. They are not going to work. It creates a miss-allocation of capital and bubbles. The Fed is saying they are considering negative interest rates to stimulate. We don’t want this here. The academics need to really rethink policy. There is an 80% chance of a rate hike priced into the market for July.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
During extremely volatile periods it can rally massively, however in the long run you are going to lose significant amounts of value. It works great when you buy it and then the markets go down. He does not recommend it except for the most extreme professional market timers.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
When you get a return of capital you are getting some of your own money back. In the next downturn, this will probably lose in the range of 30%. It's a fine ETF and the distributions are bigger than the underlying holdings. He does not like it from a couple of perspectives but there is nothing else wrong with it.
E.T.F.'s
SELL ON STRENGTH
Lumber & US Home Builders. WOOD-N trades in the US for lumber manufacturing. It is in a downtrend. There can be a short up tick due to natural disasters. XHB-N plays the home-builders and suppliers. Both sectors have been beaten up significantly. It is not until the recession hits main street that these things bottom out. Anything positive since the last recession is a counter-cyclical really and should be sold into.
Unknown
SELL ON STRENGTH
Apple Inc
It is the most overvalued sector but AAPL-Q does not fall into that. It still has massive amounts of cash and from that prospective is quite cheap. The issue is the Chinese trade deal because a lot of their growth (1/3rd) is from international. He would be thinking about lightening up, selling rallies. It is unlikely that this bull in it will continue.
electrical / electronic
BUY

[Is there something better?] He likes international: ZWE-T or ZWP-T depending on currency exposure preference. They are taxed higher than in Canada. He likes European dividends.

E.T.F.'s
BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Gold. He thinks the Fed is willing to let inflation run hot. He thinks we are ready for a breakout in Gold. It is one of his biggest positions in most of his portfolios. He likes the sector here.
Unknown
N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Canadian $. He thinks it will ping-pong from here. Ultimately it will head lower. This always hits the oil sector.
Unknown
N/A
Educational Segment. Market Technicals – Market Breadth Analysis. The tech sector is by far the largest part of the S&P 500 (21.2%). It was 16.8% in 2016. 80% of the S&P earnings growth is from the tech sector. In the S&P 100, 50% of the stocks doing the heavy lifting are tech. The percentage of stocks rising above their 200 day average is declining. The market is being held up by fewer and fewer stocks and this is not a good sign. Weakness below the surface is being masked. It is not a good sign.
Unknown
N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market. Things are beginning to build up and it is time to watch what is happening with manufacturing, employment, and interest rates. Interest rates are not indicating good news down the road. He would not be surprised to see a significant market setback in the next 6 months to a year. Trade wars are having a profound effect on fundamental trade flows around the world. Businesses are beginning to leave China to some extent. This could cause a breakdown in supply chains.
Unknown
DON'T BUY

We are beginning to see a little bit of a war in the telecommunication industry. We may be into a little bit of a price war. They have not competed to date as well with BCE's fiber to the home. When these guys fight for market share that is the time to look at cash flow. He'd be hesitant to invest in this one if going into the group.

Cable
BUY
It is a good buy at these levels. It is under pressure with world oil prices. It is an extremely well run company and internationally diversified. Their payout ratio is on the high side. Debt to cash flow is a little above industry norms but not significant. The dividend is secure, at least for the time being.
oil / gas
BUY
BCE Inc.
There is a bit of friction between the various providers. We are seeing the introduction of new and bigger data plans with more reasonable pricing. It is one of the ones he would look at within the industry.
telephone utilities
PARTIAL SELL
CAE Inc
It has been one of his favourite Quebec companies for some time. It has run to the extent where he is considering taking some profits. We are going to see much more turn-over and replacement for aircraft and that means demand for CAE. Increased pilot retirement will also create more demand for CAE products. (Analysts’ price target is $36.00)
transportation equip & components
BUY
He likes them as a company. He likes how management has organized the company and all of its arms. The dividend is not great but overall if you are a long term believer in the development of infrastructure, it is a good overall macro entity to hold.
management / diversified