Latest Expert Opinions

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N/A
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June 17, 2019
Market. A lot of people are calling for an emergency rate cut, but we are at full employment. Rate cuts at this point are pushing on a string. They are not going to work. It creates a miss-allocation of capital and bubbles. The Fed is saying they are considering negative interest rates to stimulate. We don’t want this here. The academics need to really rethink policy. There is an 80% chance of a rate hike priced into the market for July.
Market. A lot of people are calling for an emergency rate cut, but we are at full employment. Rate cuts at this point are pushing on a string. They are not going to work. It creates a miss-allocation of capital and bubbles. The Fed is saying they are considering negative interest rates to stimulate. We don’t want this here. The academics need to really rethink policy. There is an 80% chance of a rate hike priced into the market for July.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
June 17, 2019
Lumber & US Home Builders. WOOD-N trades in the US for lumber manufacturing. It is in a downtrend. There can be a short up tick due to natural disasters. XHB-N plays the home-builders and suppliers. Both sectors have been beaten up significantly. It is not until the recession hits main street that these things bottom out. Anything positive since the last recession is a counter-cyclical really and should be sold into.
Lumber & US Home Builders. WOOD-N trades in the US for lumber manufacturing. It is in a downtrend. There can be a short up tick due to natural disasters. XHB-N plays the home-builders and suppliers. Both sectors have been beaten up significantly. It is not until the recession hits main street that these things bottom out. Anything positive since the last recession is a counter-cyclical really and should be sold into.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
June 17, 2019
Gold. He thinks the Fed is willing to let inflation run hot. He thinks we are ready for a breakout in Gold. It is one of his biggest positions in most of his portfolios. He likes the sector here.
Gold. He thinks the Fed is willing to let inflation run hot. He thinks we are ready for a breakout in Gold. It is one of his biggest positions in most of his portfolios. He likes the sector here.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
June 17, 2019
Canadian $. He thinks it will ping-pong from here. Ultimately it will head lower. This always hits the oil sector.
Canadian $. He thinks it will ping-pong from here. Ultimately it will head lower. This always hits the oil sector.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
June 17, 2019
Educational Segment. Market Technicals – Market Breadth Analysis. The tech sector is by far the largest part of the S&P 500 (21.2%). It was 16.8% in 2016. 80% of the S&P earnings growth is from the tech sector. In the S&P 100, 50% of the stocks doing the heavy lifting are tech. The percentage of stocks rising above their 200 day average is declining. The market is being held up by fewer and fewer stocks and this is not a good sign. Weakness below the surface is being masked. It is not a good sign.
Educational Segment. Market Technicals – Market Breadth Analysis. The tech sector is by far the largest part of the S&P 500 (21.2%). It was 16.8% in 2016. 80% of the S&P earnings growth is from the tech sector. In the S&P 100, 50% of the stocks doing the heavy lifting are tech. The percentage of stocks rising above their 200 day average is declining. The market is being held up by fewer and fewer stocks and this is not a good sign. Weakness below the surface is being masked. It is not a good sign.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
June 17, 2019
Market. Things are beginning to build up and it is time to watch what is happening with manufacturing, employment, and interest rates. Interest rates are not indicating good news down the road. He would not be surprised to see a significant market setback in the next 6 months to a year. Trade wars are having a profound effect on fundamental trade flows around the world. Businesses are beginning to leave China to some extent. This could cause a breakdown in supply chains.
Market. Things are beginning to build up and it is time to watch what is happening with manufacturing, employment, and interest rates. Interest rates are not indicating good news down the road. He would not be surprised to see a significant market setback in the next 6 months to a year. Trade wars are having a profound effect on fundamental trade flows around the world. Businesses are beginning to leave China to some extent. This could cause a breakdown in supply chains.
Michael Sprung
President, Sprung Investment Management
WAIT
WAIT
June 17, 2019
Canadian Railways. He does not have much of a position in either one right now. The multiples are not bad right now. He prefers CNR-T right now for its foot print and the yield. They are captive to what the general economy does to a great extent. He would wait and see with both of them. If either pulled back 15-20% he would take a more serious look at them.
Canadian Railways. He does not have much of a position in either one right now. The multiples are not bad right now. He prefers CNR-T right now for its foot print and the yield. They are captive to what the general economy does to a great extent. He would wait and see with both of them. If either pulled back 15-20% he would take a more serious look at them.
Michael Sprung
President, Sprung Investment Management