DON'T BUY

He would not buy as a value investor since the valuation is reasonably full, unless AI gives them a big edge. It has executed very well and is a cash flow machine. The main source of income is advertising and ad spending tends to go down in an economic slowdown.

Unspecified

There has been concern over paying nursing homes to not send patients to hospitals. He is not sure if this true but it raises caution. There is also concern over the U.S. trying to not pay claims. The U.S. administration is going after costs in health care and profits in PDM. There is likely more bad news coming out. After three years it should probably be OK.

Unspecified

It is well run and the business should do well. Given tariffs, shipping costs, and the potential decline of the U.S. dollar, profitability may go down. It is buying back stock but he is not waiting for a disconnect. At 30X earnings it is quite expensive.

BUY

Now is probably the time to buy if you want to take a position. At $30 it is reasonably cheap. He likes the dividend cut which gives it financial flexibility and the opportunity to pay down debt. The dividend is still quite high at 6% and is stable. Market fears are somewhat overblown. The three year view should be better. He owns Rogers.

WAIT

Although it is a great operation, wait for a pullback. There is a potential slowdown and job losses. Also we're getting to the season where banks typically don't do well and many mortgages will be maturing.

WAIT

They have their eye on it and you could buy with a very long term time horizon. However he would wait for a pullback. It has several different businesses, some with very high margins and some with low margins. It is more in the fulfillment business than product selling business by charging a fee for sellers. It shouldn't be hit by tariffs but sellers might. It is not cheap but has an excellent management team along with growth and innovation.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 8%)

He sold it in March since the earnings estimates were coning down and the fair market value dropped a bit. There are better places to go for free cash flow. The whole health care space is being attacked by the government.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Down 27%)

He still likes it and would buy more. High immigration is a tailwind since there are more customers for telecom. Cost cutting is going on and new technology is being implemented. There is lots of free cash flow and along with lower interest rates this will help to pay down debt. It has a decent and sustainable dividend.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Down 13%)

He sold in November but still likes it a lot and has put it on their potential buy list if it gets to their price. There is concern over a drop-off in demand.

Unspecified

He hopes their troubles are behind them but as an equity investor is not sure if he sees the light at the end of the tunnel yet. There are only three companies in the world that make planes and global travel is growing. It has some logistics issues and has received some significant slaps on the wrist by the transportation board. There is a lot of debt but the order book is pretty filled up. He thinks there has been some change in management.

DON'T BUY

He owned it but sold. Free cash flow is not abundant and it has a lot of debt. It will take time to turn around but pays a good dividend.

BUY

It is very well managed and has solid properties. He is bullish on oil and even more on natural gas. Although it is entering a period of seasonal weakness it is a long term buy.

COMMENT

Waymo shouldn't be adding to earnings anytime soon. Much capital has been poured into it and potentially much more is needed. He doesn't know the adoption rate of self-driving vehicles or the profitability potential. Look at Waymo as part of the whole Google play.

Unspecified

It is a great brand but does not have enough of a margin of safety for him since it trades near 30X forward earnings. Most earnings come from the sale of hardware and there is not a lot of margin in this. Also tariffs could have a big effect. It has other parts as well.

WAIT

It is a storied asset manger and owns many baby Brookfields. He really likes the management and company but the stock is expensive. As a value investor he wants a decent sized correction before buying. He has concerns re the private equity space, in particular defaults or lower valuations, which would affect asset management fees.