He's not bullish oil now (nat gas, yes), so he doesn't own CNQ, though it's run well. CNQ has a deep resource base. The value of the Oil Sands will rise because of its strategic value against the dwindling US shale producers. This is reaching the lows of this cycle. CNQ is more oil than nat gas. Pays a 5.5% dividend yield and strong balance sheet. Are paying down debt.
Unlike the TSX, oil comprises a small part of the US market, about 4%. So, nobody cares about a smaller-cap oil company. Rather, these stocks need a sentiment shift. The company itself is fine with over 10 years of stay-flat inventory. Drilling results are decent. Pays a 5.4% dividend yield. Sell this and buy WCP, which pays a higher dividend and gives you Canadian tax efficiency.
There are few US players in natural gas (he's very bullish nat gas), given data centre demand for energy. They have 20 years of stay-flat inventory in basins that are close to Canada's new west coast LNG facility. He expects nat gas to trade at $4-5, while others are more bullish.
(Analysts’ price target is $126.89)You get exposure to natural gas and condensates. NVA is growing production by 33% the next few years, then will plateau production which they can do for 28 years. Wait for their share buybacks to happen over time. At $4 nat gas and $60-70 oil, NVA can buy back 33-52% of their stock over the next 5 years while they grow production by 33%..
(Analysts’ price target is $16.69)Trades at a 10% free cash flow yield. Pays a 3.4% dividend yield. They can keep production flat down to $42 oil, among the lowest break-evens for a Canadian company. Are seeing great results. Share buybacks over time make this a sit and wait name. For Canadian oil names, the stay-afloat price of oil is $51 a barrel to maintain production and the dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $5.65)
Benefits from the rotation out of oil into nat gas, which is performing far better. They bought assets from Strathcona, which he sees as 6% accretive (other say 10%). ARX has decades of inventory and good management which have been buying back stock.