Today, Stockchase Insights and Gordon Reid commented about whether CRWD-Q, FSLR-Q, AMGN-Q, DIS-N, RTX-N, LMT-N, T-N, ADBE-Q, MSFT-Q, GM-N, TOL-N, MRK-N, FCX-N, ELV-N, DY-N, BAC-N, BSX-N, TMO-N, BDX-N, V-N, GOOG-Q, DELL-N, INTC-Q, CSGP-Q, LFUS-Q, BMO-T are stocks to buy or sell.
LFUS is $6.1B market cap, trading at 29X earnings with a 1.04% yield. Net debt is about 1X cash flow, and EPS growth has been decent, though a decline is expected this year before about 30%+ growth in 2025. Versus a group of Bloomberg peers, it is cheaper on P/E but has a lower return on equity and much lower growth (at least this year, -6% vs +16%). Its yield is average versus peers. All-in, while we don't have a lot really against it, with some debt and less growth it just does not compare so favourably with peers.
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CSGP has struggled year-to-date down 12%, however we view the recent move to acquire MTTR positively. The balance sheet is in good shape with $3.85B in net cash. Revenue growth is expected to be strong and EPS is expected to double in 2025. The valuation is expensive on a forward earnings basis at 99x, and is above three year averages. On a forward sales basis, the valuation is at a low point on a three-year basis but is still expensive at 10.8x. We think it is a decent company and there is future potential as commercial real estate activity picks up. The valuation is expensive and recent declining profitability are deterrents.
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What are "net-net" investments?
In his early days, Warren Buffett was famous for compounding money at a high rate of return with low risk by seeking “net-net” situations. In effect, he was looking for a company that had more liquid assets on its balance sheet than its market capitalization indicated after conservatively subtracting all obligations. As a result, theoretically, his downside would be quite well-protected given the liquid assets acting as a floor valuation.
Investors are puzzled about why such a situation happens and persists, especially in the public market, where there are tons of highly educated investors, and professionals trying to seek above-average performance. Are investors too naïve to let such a situation happen?
The phenomenon typically happens with companies where they have one operating business and a portfolio of liquid assets in cash, short-term investments, or even private investments, etc. Those companies tend to trade at a discount compared to a situation where a portfolio of securities and the operating business are two separately traded entities. Investors can get into such situations with the mindset that they can purchase a fine operating business at a discount to peers given the cash cushion.
That being said, the market has become much more efficient nowadays than in Mr. Buffet’s era thanks to the transformation of technology. In addition, the presence of activist investors and private equity who are willing to be actively involved to realize this value much faster by pushing management to improve on capital allocation. Consequently, the popularity of such situations has been few and far between, however, occasionally, investors still can find such opportunities, especially in inefficient places where institutional investors are not too active.
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A recession is possible and a soft landing in the U.S. is not guaranteed. It wouldn't be the first time when the effects of fiscal tightening are felt long after. We're seeing weakening in some sectors; some retail numbers are troubling, some corporate reports are spotty, and poorer demographics are showing weakness. Be on guard in case we don't get a soft landing. The street started this year forecasting 4-6 rate cuts, and now there's even talk of raising rates. Markets have held up well, though, particularly tech, AI stocks and those with wide moats. He's selling consumer discretionary; some companies report poor customer traffic, while some have elevated valuations.
Has long owned this. Early on, it had a high PE, but now it's high growth and low PE. Its growth has outstripped its price movement. This is good for future buyers. Growth rate is 5-6x GDP and 2-3x the market average. Very good positioning; AI will be sweet for them. Some worry that their internet search will fall behind AI and not progress, but he feels this is negative thinking, that this is really an opportunity for Google.
After last year's regional bank meltdown, Washington will now backstop them to prevent contagion. But recently BAC's CEO said that bank net interest margins may be suspect going forward, because the consumer is weakening. That said, BAC is well priced and their dividend will grow. Happy to own this.
BMO is still reeling from its weak recent quarterly report. It is now 10.8X earnings, down 12.5% YTD. With some other banks below 10X earnings, we think it could go there too. This would imply about $111 or so.
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