Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and Darren Sissons commented about whether JNJ-N, CNQ-T, BTI-N, AQN-T, NSC-N, UNP-N, CNR-T, CP-T, BEP.UN-T, TSM-N, WEED-T, BCE-T, BB-T, TECK.B-T, SU-T, NSRGY-OTC, BHP-N, MA-N, V-N, PYPL-Q, OTEX-T, CURA-CSE, PFE-N, ALB-N, LAC-T, TRP-T, BOS-T, ADBE-Q, TSLA-Q, NEE-N, O-N are stocks to buy or sell.
The market ran up into Q2, was soft in the summer, with some fairly significant give back in September. If you trimmed winners, you're sitting on cash. That was the right thing to do.
We're starting to see a real plethora of opportunities whether it's income, growth, value, or geography.
Within the sector, he'd favour the insurers because they definitely benefit from rising rates. Be wary of the banks, even though we haven't seen a lot of carnage in terms of loans and bankruptcies. Banks will benefit from rising interest rates. We have world-class banks in Canada, and he owns RY and TD.
Because of the structural differences in Canadian and US banks, in this environment he'd actually favour banks that have balance sheet risk. Once interest rates go up, you get slowing transactional volume, and that's not good for US banks. Equally so, when you get a recession, and the floor's in, US banks offer significant upside relative to Canadian banks.
There are other parts of the world you can look at as well.
He spoke to a large European multinational this week about the state of the global economy. The response was that Europe's in recession and not coming out anytime soon. US chemicals are in a recession, and possibly energy. Wait to see if the US is going to go through a recession. China is the closest to coming out.
If China comes back online meaningfully, base metals will move. Copper is giving you an indication that the economy's going to be weak.
Thinking about the global economy, you have to figure out where the opportunities lie and where you want to stay away from. If you're thinking about a 3-5 year investment the way he is, you want to buy names when they're weak in anticipation of big cyclical moves. For example, last year BHP moved from $48 to $70 in the space of 5 weeks, and that's the kind of move you can get in commodities.
Buy cheaply, trim them at the top, add at the bottom.
For example, take a company that's historically traded at a 4% dividend yield, and it's trading at 8%. Longer term, unless there's something fundamentally, structurally amiss, dividends have to go back to 4%. And so that's an opportunity. A dividend compression from 8% to 4% would drive 100% capital gain.
Definitely something investors should be paying a lot of attention to right now.
Companies get split off for 2 reasons: 1) it's non-core; or 2) it's better off being run on its own. Long-term, core business of TRP has an elevated dividend that will revert to the mean. You should see a special dividend, dividend compression over time.
At current levels, you'll see more downside. Well run, great company. Major opportunity once pipeline to the West is done.
If you're having trouble selling your shares, you should look at the nature of the shares you own. Typically when a company's stock falls significantly, it enters a halt period when you can't sell the shares. When a share price is falling dramatically, it's probably time to sell. If you can't sell shares directly, you might try selling via the options market.
You might need to investigate further as to why your order won't go through. In the case of LAC earlier this week, trading was temporarily halted while the company restructured and its share structure was adjusted.
From the sub-5% era, everyone's now facing significant interest rate increases in terms of cost of capital. The surety of locking up your capital for longer periods of time is going to diminish the impact of higher interest rate spikes. Any government bonds are guaranteed, so that's fine if that's what you want to do.
But locking up your money for a long time is going to limit your ability to participate in any of the inflation trades. A portion of your portfolio makes sense. Be aware of putting your money into money markets, because if the recession happens and interest rates fall, we're going to see bond returns lower and that will impact you as well.