Today, Christine Poole and Stockchase Insights commented about whether DKS-N, BA-N, NVDA-Q, CSU-T, ATZ-T, BCE-T, TA-T, T-T, DIS-N, LB-T, UNH-N, PLC-T, PKI-T, JPM-N, TD-T, CSH.UN-T, MA-N, MFC-T, CCL-N, RTX-N, JNJ-N, BEP.UN-T, WSP-T, RY-T, FTS-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Growth is certainly impressive, but valuation is very high as well. The main risk we see is that customers are 'double ordering' as they are worried about supply issues (similar to what happened in many industries during the pandemic). Thus, if this is occurring now, growth could slow, perhaps sharply, in 18 months or so. But, with 70% of the global AI-chip market, business is good and growth is quite secure for the next 12 months at least. All the companies spending money on AI will have to see a return on their investments one day, but even so the high spend rate could still last several years. So we have a global leader, with excellent momentum, and accelerating (for now) growth. Other than valuation, it still looks very impressive. We have probably made more money buying 'expensive' stocks than we have ever made buying 'cheap' stocks, and we would continue to endorse NVDA as one of the best high-growth stocks globally. But..it is not risk-free! So we would position size accordingly.
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BA is still down from its high pre-2019. BA of course experienced a significant headwind in the last few years caused by airline crashes and review of the MAX. BA’s sales recently just reached back to 2019 levels, but BA is still experiencing negative operating losses. The balance sheet has $39B in net debt. Total debt is around 4.2x times the trailing twelve-month cash flow of $9.2B. The company is still on its way to recovery, sales and bookings have accelerated into double-digit growth in recent quarters. The company expects to generate $3.0-$5.0B in free cash flow in 2023. Based on consensus estimates, EBIT is not expected to come back to 2018’s level until 2024. We are generally not a huge fan of turnaround stories, however, we think BA could have potential here. The stock is showing good momentum, and could benefit from lower interest rates (if and when) as well as a lower US dollar. We would be OK with a slow accumulation, keeping a position size small while it further builds on its operational recovery.
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DKS is very cheap now at 9X earnings. The dividend of 3.6% has shown good growth. While many retailers are experiencing consumer slowdowns, DKS has a 'theft' issue. Theft is the driving force behind Dick's Sporting Goods' 23% EPS drop in 2Q and lowered guidance for the full year, as sales trends were only slightly below expectations in the quarter. Management's revised outlook for fiscal 2023 non-GAAP EPS suggests growth of about 2.5% in 2H vs. 1H's 4% decline as the retailer remains focused on maintaining elevated gross margin, implements a cost-cutting plan and expands its store footprint. Gains in 2H may be more heavily weighted toward seasonally strong 4Q vs. 3Q. The company's unchanged projection for same-store sales to be flat to 2% higher this fiscal year suggests further deceleration in 2H from 2Q's 1.8%, which marked a four-quarter low, as year-over-year comparisons get tougher. Short sellers do often 'pick on' weakness, and it is likely also a short target just for its consumer exposure, as many short sellers expect a recession. Short interest is 12% now. The balance sheet is fine, and we do not think recent issues are fatal. It is priced well, but a recovery is going to take some patience. We would consider it a HOLD.
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Investment Valuation Model: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is a popular valuation model that forecasts a company’s future cash flows and discounts (builds in a return) them back to the present. With this model, we use the company’s income statement, and using a variety of growth and profit margin assumptions, we derive a model price based on its historicals and growth prospects.
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Very well manged company - best in sector.
Does not own shares.
Investing in other areas in healthcare sector.
Share price falling on concerns for pricing power.
Good long term investment.