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TOP PICK

UBS Group AG is a multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. Co-headquartered in the cities of Zürich and Basel, it maintains a presence in all major financial centres as the largest Swiss banking institution and the largest private bank in the world. Social media mentions are up 8% in the past 24h.

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🔒 Premium Content Alert – This buzzing stock opinion is accessible only to Premium members

Discover an exclusive list and analysis of the stocks that are trending on social medias—accessible only to our Premium subscribers. With a keen focus on the stocks that are setting social media ablaze, this weekly feature offers an invaluable lens through which to evaluate market movers. Say goodbye to the endless scroll through social media timelines; we curate the buzz so you can invest your time as wisely as your money. Unlock Premium Now.

TOP PICK

With more than $30 billion in assets, Western Alliance Bancorporation is one of the country's top-performing banking companies. The company has ranked in the top 10 on the Forbes 'Best Banks in America' list for five consecutive years, 2016-2020, and was named #1 best-performing of the 50 largest public U.S. banks for 2019 by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Its primary subsidiary, Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC, helps business clients realize their ambitions with local teams of experienced bankers who deliver superior service and a full spectrum of customized loan, deposit and treasury management capabilities. Business clients also benefit from a powerful array of specialized financial services that provide strong expertise and tailored solutions for a wide variety of industries and sectors. A national presence with a regional footprint, Western Alliance Bank operates individually branded, full-service banking divisions and has offices in key markets nationwide. Social media mentions are up 9% in the past 24h.

COMMENT
Banks.

We have to have confidence in our institutions, our banks. If you don't, you can leave. Something's changed over the last 100 years. We've all seen photos of long lines at the banks during the Great Depression, as people lined up to withdraw their money. Today, in the digital age, we can do it with our phones. That's what we saw last week with SVB, billions of dollars of deposits were withdrawn because of a lack of confidence. Regulators have to address that. The problem of 2023 in banking is liquidity.

COMMENT
Have other banks also bought long bonds as SVB did?

Perhaps some. There are 5,000 banks in the US, while there are 34 in Canada. It was not a mistake to buy the bonds, it was a thought-out decision. One side of their business had started to lapse, and the managers decided to take risk. Instead of acting like a bank, they acted like a very large hedge fund. Banks have a function in society, and SVB went beyond the role of a bank. The mismatch of going long on mortgages and short on deposits didn't work their way. Deposits overwhelmed the bonds they could get rid of, they had to take losses on their bond portfolio, which led to a capital raise, leading to an issue of confidence, possible credit rating issue, and then a run on deposits. Where were the regulators while SVB was acting as it did? See his blog at goodreid.com.

DON'T BUY

Bit of a trap. Good valuation, 8x earnings. High dividend, close to 7%, which is alluring. Growth has stalled. Highly competitive space. Over time, dividend's safety has edged lower.

DON'T BUY

Lots of exciting areas, but a 21-22x PE, which is too rich in a very cyclical business.

HOLD

Still likes it. Volatile, higher beta. Copper use in everyday lives is increasing, from automotive to green energy. Heavily dependent on health of economy. Copper goes as the economy goes. Cheap right now, very attractive. Be patient.

STRONG BUY

Traded off on recession worries, where projects on the books would be deferred, but this is temporary. Solid investment, less than 9x earnings, inexpensive. Consistent grower. Initiated first-ever dividend, shows confidence in future cashflow.

DON'T BUY

Gets credit as an innovator. Production levels are getting into the big leagues. Very expensive, though with a very profitable 11% net profit margin. Leader in battery tech. Bottom quartile on quality for the last 2 years.

HOLD

Got nicked in the SVB banking crisis. Down, but not as much as many banks. Diverse deposit base, unlike SVB and Signature. 

WATCH

His highest exposure to US regional banks, though total exposure is only about 2.5%. Believes it will come through OK, but it depends on crowd mentality, as that's what's driving things at the moment.

DON'T BUY

Stock price has come on, though perhaps not in the larger context. Gets credit for performance in 2023. Purging of really good assets to bolster cashflow. Trying to resurrect assets from the trash bin or close to it. Doing OK, but still a cashflow problem. Better choices elsewhere.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 10/22, Up 20%)

Not the value it was, but still good value. Growing rapidly. Asset light model was beneficial during pandemic. Estimated to earn $125 EPS in 2023. Notes that revenge travel won't go on forever. Well managed.