COMMENT
Educational Segment. When US government is shut down, it is bearish for the economy. However, it depends on the start and ending points. Since markets are depressed right now, it could rally in the coming months. There is the debt ceiling, and the treasury general account running out of money, which could be in the next 3 weeks. There are two paths: either they reconcile and extend the debt ceiling or throw in at the last minute. It is all about the 2022 elections. The plan for dems is to spend all the money now so that the economy is strong next year. Positive on the energy outlook based on politics and trading perspective.
BUY
Bullish on uranium and nuclear must be part of the greening of the world. There are some new investment funds and there are squeezes that are pushing the market higher. It has some legs. There could be some supply shortages if the demand side picks up. Japan and Germany may be looking at turning back on nuclear production.
BUY
One of the ways to play global infrastructures is to buy the miner and steel companies that supply the building material. Still thinks it is still the case. ZMT is one of the better to play the infrastructure bill.
DON'T BUY
Covered call overlay strategy. Loves the strategy in general. Thinks we are close to a low point. You do not want covered call when you think we are near the bottom since with it, we give away some of the upside capture. Should look at pure exposure.
COMMENT
Gold and silver. Has been frustrated with the gold performance. Still in an environment where gold and silver should do well. Silver is more sensitive to the economy with the industrial component and it could be more attractive than gold.
PARTIAL BUY
Leverage play for natural gas. Clearly getting a breakout in the short term. Thinks oil is capped out and natural gas should trade relative to oil. Can see front month natural gas contracts going for $5. Forward pricing looks like there is room into next year to move further up. An okay way to do it if you can handle leverage. Not for a long term buy and hold.
COMMENT
Now they are buying put protection instead of fixed income. Fixed income with yield so low does not give the protection it used to, and it is now a risk. Needs to rethink the 60-40 model. The put protection serves the same purpose now.
WAIT
As interest rates go up, the Nasdaq underperforms. Would wait for the 200 day average to be tested. The technical support is close to 300. Could be 3 to 15% downside for a correction.
COMMENT
Equities are not looking attractive from a valuation perspective. Still very overpriced. Markets correcting is normal behaviour. Seeing it now with traditional seasonal weakness with lots of catalysts. There are US government drama, and over-valued prices.
COMMENT
The government and central banks are trying to portray inflation as transitory. With the debt in the world and aging demographic, they are disinflationary trends. However, the pockets of inflation may be transitory but it could be a year or two of inflation.
COMMENT
Their political lobby is powerful in Washington. Ultimately, it will probably not be different this time. One of their execs admitted they did not enough for misinformation. They are not doing enough.
N/A
Market. The problem in September was some of the warnings from companies. The problem is disrupted supply chains such as for semiconductors. We are overdue for a correction. He expects a 5% pull back. He put some money aside for it. A correction could be worse if valuations continue to go up. Interest rates might migrate slightly higher but there will be no significant increase any time soon. He is taking profits in the energy sector where he has been overweight. Industrials are depressed here. Gold is positioned well. You don't need significant increase in commodity prices.
WEAK BUY
He likes the sector but this is not his top pick in the sector because of the high valuation. RCI.B-T would have more growth ahead of it. Decent dividends, stable earnings are great for this sector, though. He thinks telecoms should be valued higher across the board.
BUY
He would stick with it. The auto sector is the epicentre of the semiconductor shortage. It's not a demand problem but a short term supply issue. He thinks they still have a couple of years of decent growth ahead of them. This is the best sector of the market.
DON'T BUY
Lithium. The impact of the use in batteries is causing it to grow substantially. There could be supply issues in the short term. He'd go to the battery supply rather than a pure play. These high growth industries with high valuations are the most at risk in a market that is worried about short term interest rates and rising inflation.