BUY

Excited about it, despite cord-cutting trends which Disney has survived. Their takeover of 20th Century Fox positions them very well to better broadcast their content (has a huge library now) to, say, India and Europe. Fantastic CEO. He's a long-term holder of Disney, despite the slump of recent years.

COMMENT

Why are there no trade worries about US-China? Why are were markets were up today? The Federal Reserve today said the economy is doing well. Trade barriers are raising prices in US and China. He thinks investors think this will all get resolved as will NAFTA. Corporate profits are pretty good. Banks and industry are unchanged or slightly down--there's some turmoil beneath the surface. Investors are immune to Trump's bluster and looking to invest--won't invest by headline. Canadian markets have been down the past few years, and the lack of pipelines have been discouraging. Canadian financials have done nothing for the past year, though their profits are rising--this sector looks interesting. Canadian investors should continue to explore America and abroad, though the weak CAD is an obstacle. Canadian capital markets have limited choice.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick, June 14, 2017, Down 17%) He made a mistake with this one. They bought California utility assets five years ago, which was a mistake. Now, they bought WGL in the U.S. Management has really blown it. It's deeply disappointing. Bad on him for sticking with a loser. He sold it. Spinning out the company is just ridiculous; it's a sign of desperation. The CEO-founder continues to flounder.

HOLD

Well-run. All banks are sensitive to interest rates. BAC has a big investment banking operation. Its CEO has done well to maintain cost discipline. Boasts decent international exposure. All US banks have been stuck for the past year. As long as the US market holds, BAC will do well. He expects more investment to flow into the US banks.

BUY

Safe 6.6% yield. They have lots of free cash flow. They'll likely raise that dividend. The company is doing great. Their European operations are doing very well and, because they're in Europe, are avoiding the differentials that Canadian energy companies suffer. Europe accounts for a big portion of their revenues. Merill-Lynch just upgraded VET.

BUY

He reduced his exposure to FB because it was getting too large in his portfolio and because of regulatory risks and costs. It's now down to a reasonable valuation. You can buy it here. There remains headline risk. But FB is doing the right thing to improve security, and this will get politicians off their back; it'll cost them money to do this. They're still growing rapidly, particularly in Instagram and Messenger. Well-run. The stock will be in the doghouse, but give them credit for using AI to weed out bad actors on their platform. Look long-term.

DON'T BUY

They were working on some drug trials which didn't work as expected. Acqusitions didnt work out either The balance sheet is weaker than before. Some of their drugs will soon lose their patent.

COMMENT

Why is the Canadian dollar so cheap against the USD? He shares the caller's frustrations. Canada needs its resources to be extracted in a safe way. He blames the current government, though these problems go a long way back. We don't have a strong industrial policy--we need to get our act together. Petty politics by provincial and city politicians doesn't help. We're not a country right now. That's what is driving investors away from Canada.

COMMENT

Market. We are in one of the greatest bull markets of his lifetime. GDP growth is at 4%, US employment continues to improve. He expects the quality of jobs to improve, with higher wages that feed increased consumer spending. His advice to investors, “Don’t fight the tape.” Western Europe is being dragged along by this positive American activity, as is China. Tariffs pose a short-term problem but this will resolve and they won’t affect the large growth stocks. The drug companies and the movement in technology and automation, for example, will not be affected by tariffs. There are reasons to be concerned about certain specific stocks or sectors, but in general, the best thing to do is “get on, and ride the flood.” He is less enthusiastic about Canada because of high household debt and because Canada’s economy is too reliant on commodities. The world has overbuilt its infrastructure for commodities in this century and is awash in them. Additionally, NIMBY (”not in my backyard”) activists prevent Canadians from exploiting resources. For example, US railways are making $10 to 15 US to move oil rather than pipeline companies making $5. The Canadian oil producers pay the difference and Canadians lose the jobs. The Canadian dollar will probably go down further to compensate.

WAIT

This was historically a printing company that bought up other companies and cut costs by consolidating the business. That game is over now because the newspaper industry has shrunk. They then entered the packaging industries, which was exciting because this put a company with cost-cutting expertise into an industry that still has growth opportunities. They did well for a couple of quarters and then got hit with bad results that have shaken confidence. He thinks it is normal for a few tough quarters after a large acquisition. The price has dropped quite a bit, and it might be a buying opportunity, but he suggests waiting a bit longer to see how well the business is progressing. It would be better to pay another buck or two if the company is doing well than buying now and watching it drop $4 or $5 more if the transition is troubled. He thinks the company is well run and will eventually turn around and be a good investment, but the stock might have to drop farther before that happens. He is looking at this stock to enter, himself. He wants to buy it, but not yet.

DON'T BUY

He is neutral on this. The company has transformed its business over the last 20 years from printing newspapers to making cardboard boxes. This is both, a great growth industry and a very mature industry. The company sells at 15x earnings, which is a relatively high multiple for a mature business. International Paper is the leader in the industry, so the company is safe, but it will probably just continue to plug along. He would look elsewhere for an opportunity.

BUY

This is one of the few Canadian companies he owns. He likes it. He likes the potential of the business, and the leverage to higher rates. The stock rose in expectation of higher rates and dropped off when the main increases were postponed. The company struggled with its US business, but now the company is stronger, the dividend is fine and will gradually increase. Eventually the Asian expansion will pay off and the stock will probably move to the low $30’s, which is where many people have set a target price. He would nibble away at it at this price. He would buy a lot more at $20 and would sell some at $32.

COMMENT

A questioner noted that the stock had dropped a lot but was now rising on a rumour of a possible buyout. Murray responded that he doesn’t know the company well enough to recommend buying, holding or selling. He noted that discount brokerage market in the US has become very competitive with heavy advertising of low prices, low fees and of interest rates on cash reserves. Their incomes are being squeezed. E*Trade is a good long-term business. As more people retire, they will manage their investments as a hobby. So he would not be afraid of this stock, but he doesn’t know whether the stock is overpriced at this level. If the PE is 15-20x, he thinks it is OK. (Analyst's price target 17.74.)

BUY

They published results today that surprised negatively on earnings but their growth is very strong and the company is well managed. E-commerce will continue to grow. He thinks FedEx and UPS will continue to benefit from that and their future is fine. The lower earnings come from paying their employees more, which is probably a good investment in the future of the company. He sees today’s drop as a buying opportunity.

COMMENT

This company grew by rolling up paint suppliers in the US in the auto-finishing business, much like Boyd Automotive except it is a bit upstream, actually supplying the paint in to the shops. The company did well for a while but after they had acquired a big chunk of the industry, their pricing got high. Since then, earnings have been disappointing, their Canadian exposure has been tough with the economy slowing down, and the stock sold off. In addition, the automated driving support features will lead to fewer collisions and hurt the repair business over the longer term. Over the short term, investors could nibble at the stock at this price and then sell it on a bounce. The stock dropped today after the CEO departed abruptly and the company cut its forecast.