HOLD

It's fallen this year. It should do well on the back of robust demand for U.S. housing, and roofs don't last forever and need replacing. He continues to own it. BECN had a rough first quarter due to poor Q1 weather. They're the second-largest roofer in the U.S. Hang with it.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick, August 17, 2017, Up 22%) They literally lay the fibre for 1-Gig technology for telecom giants like AT&T and Comcast, so if one of those companies cuts back then it effects Dycom. A lumpy stream of revenue growth, but will run 15% in the long run. They're a major company in this industry.

TOP PICK

A large bio-pharma. They enjoyed a recent jump in the stock price had to do with seeing promising results from a phase 2 trial drug treating Alzheimer's. If this drug ultimately passes, it would be an multi-billion-dollar opportunity. Free cash flow is a high 7%. They'll likely make an acqusition with all this cash to deepend their portfolio. (Analysts' price target: $365.00)

TOP PICK

They make car exhaust and ride control systems. Recently bought Federal-Mogul that will merge at first, then split into two companies. It's a really cheap company at 6x forward earnings. Investors are abandoning sectors like this, so this is a serious opportunity. (Analysts' price target: $57.67)

TOP PICK

A quarter-trillion market cap. Grew revenues at 13% YOY and earnings 24% YOY. It continues to grow, the grandaddy of payment companies. It trades in the high-$20's, so not cheap, but this company walks the walk. (Analysts' price target: $148.24)

COMMENT

Overview. He thinks the fair value of the S&P 500 is about 3800, which is 30% higher than today’s level. He thinks fundamentals are great, especially in the US, which is where most of his focus is. He thinks US government policy (and the associated parts of the Twitterverse) is holding the market down. The S&P hit a high in early February, went through a long consolidation, and has risen back to almost the level it held at its high. He thinks S&P will easily reach that this summer. Beyond that, though, the S&P is running out of time. China is slowing down, world growth is slowing down, and commodities stocks in Canada ex oil are not doing well. Many are down 50%, which also suggests weakness in global growth. He expects a recession in the next year or 18 months. In the recent past, the FAANG stocks have pushed the S&P higher. Netflix stumbled but it looks as though Amazon, Google and Facebook are hitting new highs. The financials are acting well. For S&P to rise 30%, the lead will have to come from the financials not the FAANGs.

PARTIAL BUY

The stock has been going down. It is approaching a critical level according to Model Price theory: EBB-1 level is $17.80. His Model Price is $26.64, which is almost a 50% upside. However, if the stock drops below EBB-1, it could drop to EBB-2, which is $15. He would take a half-position at this level, but if it goes lower, he would sell and buy closer to $14.82. The market is concerned about recent news, such as the unionizing of its staff. However, a positive catalyst in the news could boost the stock an easy 25%. Making money on this stock might require trading around the levels rather than buying and holding.

BUY

His model price is $44.72, which is a 300% upside. This stock is very high risk but it has been rising recently as he predicted it would. This stock, like Teva and Bausch Health, were part of the most undervalued sector of the market 9 months ago, have been rising, and probably have more to go.

DON'T BUY

He calls this an interest-sensitive stock. The dividend of $1.68 is not covered by earnings. Earnings estimates for this year and next are $1.46 and $1.41. Interest-sensitives have had a bounce recently, perhaps because people sense a slowdown coming. He is bearish on the group. He would buy this stock at about $19.60.

DON'T BUY

Under his model, this stock is overpriced by 15%. Also it is paying out over $2 in dividends but is expected to earn only about $1 this year and $1.35 next year. This is similar to Crescent Point. The stock is getting a bump from oil prices but he would not buy it until it comes down to $21.

DON'T BUY

His model price is $13.66, so he seeks the stock as almost 6% overvalued. They pay out as much as analysts expect them to earn. There is better value in American stocks.

WAIT

This is another interest-sensitive stock that is at risk from rising interest rates. It is overvalued by 10% compared to his model. The company is doing a whole lot of financial engineering. He would like to see the balance sheet after all the shenanigans are finished. He think that ultimately the stock will go to about $35.

HOLD

The stock has a 61% upside before reaching the model price. It is acquiring another company which creates some volatility. If it breaks below $7, he thinks the stock will go lower and he would set a stop loss for $7.

DON'T BUY

This stock is way too expensive. It has a negative book value, which pulls the stock out of his Model Pricing approach.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Up 33%). He continues to love Apple. He sees a 17.5% upside.