Today, Cameron Hurst and David Driscoll commented about whether TRP-T, LNN-N, JMHLY-OTC, FTS-T, TEVA-N, REI.UN-T, BCE-T, CLX-N, CHL-N, SAN-N, POW-T, PAYX-Q, DSY-FP, DHR-N, AC-T, NTR-T, ATRI-Q, LYG-N, MS-N, IBN-N, UL-N, GILD-Q, CVX-N, COP-N, MCD-N, WYNN-Q, CSU-N, SLB-N, MDT-N, VZ-N, KELYA-Q, KMI-N, PYPL-Q, DWDP-N, XTN-N, ETFC-Q, FDX-N, ETFC-Q, IHI-N are stocks to buy or sell.
Market. S&P 500 is trading around 24X. Historically it is usually 16X. We are getting overvalued. Now we have tax cuts, consumer spending, expectation for GDP growth, hence the expectation that if earnings are growing at a faster rate, then the stock market should grow faster. Peaks have occurred in 1929 before the market crash, up and down until 1938, and then the tech bubble in 1997 and 1999 was a melt up before everything came crashing back to earth. In this phase, we could get a melt up. If it happens, be prepared to manage your portfolio appropriately, so you will be able to counter if we get any kind of a selloff after.
You should pay attention to a stock's beta. For example, you have some high-flying tech stocks which are trading at high betas, which is simply the price volatility relative to the underlying index. If the market index is 1, and the stock is trading at 1.75, that means for every $1 the market goes up or down, the price of the stock is going to go up or down by 1.75. If the stock market were to fall 40% like it did in 2008, then the stock's share price is going to go down 65%-75%.
He believes in the stock. You are getting earnings growth of roughly 10% a year, and revenue growth anywhere from 2% to 4%. They are a little on the low side now, but just sold off their spreads business, so they have $6 billion in cash. Their strategy going forward is to have subsidiaries which are high margin/high growth. They want to reduce costs and overhead, and get margins higher so that they can a) pay down some debt and b) continue the dividend growth and c) capture more e-commerce markets. 43% of revenues are in Asia, and nobody else is close.
There are 2 really good banks in India, this and HDFC. India has a lot of government fiscal policy change right now, and GST has been added so they can get their revenues up and be able to start to spend on infrastructure. Unlike this bank, HDFC Bank is more of a development bank, and have been able to grow their dividends at a much faster rate. He chose HDFC for his holdings for the future.
If you look at all the US banks' total returns, they are almost identical. The reason is because of ETF's. It’s pretty much a 26%-27% total return over the last 12 months for almost all the big money centred banks. Interest rates are rising, so it’s a good place to be. For access to American banking, he owns Toronto Dominion (TD-T) instead. On the dividend per share being paid out by US banks, they are just getting started. This bank would be deemed more as a money centred bank. A little slower growth than some of the others, because they have more of a global positioning with greater capital markets exposure.
This was up 10% last year, which wasn't as great as a lot of the European banks. The biggest problem in Europe is that they have ultra low rates and are just starting to think about getting rid quantitative easing. Until interest rates and inflation start to rise in Europe, you are going to get stickiness out of European banks and their growth rates. This bank just started to initiate a dividend again, which they haven't paid for 6 years.
Small caps tend to be less liquid and therefore may have higher betas, although this one is low at 6.1, because it doesn't trade a lot. It makes all kinds of medical devices that none of the big guys want to manufacture. A good entry point would be around $50. This is one you want to hold for the long run.
This is the merger of Agrium and Potash. If the population is continually growing, someone has to feed them. The industry has been hurt recently, because China, Ukraine and Russia are cutting prices just to get rid of supply. When that supply disappears and demand catches up, they then have pricing power. In the meantime, it is just a matter of sitting back. $50 would be a good entry point. Earnings are going to be choppy over the next little while.
It’s interesting that this stock is falling while US airlines are rising. His guess is that this airline is impacted by rising oil prices. Their largest cost, after labour, is fuel. He would never own the stock, because they have such high capital expenditures that they never generate real growing free cash flow. If he owned this, he would have entry points and exit points. If one of your targets gets hit, you can sell half, or start to find the next the point based on the high multiples in the category.
(A Top Pick March 13/17. Up 13%.) This is in 5 businesses, life sciences, diagnostics, water quality, product idea and dental. These are all industries that have burgeoning growth going forward. Danaher makes acquisitions of companies in those industries, and then turns them around. The dividend has been growing at roughly a 12%-15% clip, so a 13% return on the stock price is no surprise.
(A Top Pick March 13/17. Up 10%.) Basically does HR and payroll services. Every 2 weeks, when all these little companies have to remit their IRS payroll taxes, this company gets to grab $4 billion and park it over the weekend at rising interest rates. For every .25% interest rates rise in the US, this company makes free money of $3 million. They are catering to small-medium-sized businesses of 15 employees or less, so their business is picking up, revenues are growing and with tax cuts from 35% to 21%, it is going to release a lot of cash flow with an increasing dividend that could be as high as 50%.
He likes it a lot. He is cautious on the space and is underweight right now. Restaurants and especially this one have been stellar. They have really turned around and are a hero.