Today, David Baskin and Ryan Bushell commented about whether BNS-T, CVE-T, ALA-T, CPG-T, ACQ-T, SU-T, ATRL-T, TRP-T, IPL-T, PPL-T, NWC-T, VET-T, ALA-T, AGU-T, TAP-N, RIO-N, CWB-T, RUS-T, ENB-T, TRI-T, BKNG-Q, ITP-T, BAM.A-T, HSBC-N, SPB-T, FTN-T, NA-T, WJA-T, BA-N, ZEB-T, CTC.A-T, KAR-N, FSV-T, DIS-N, KPT-T, ECA-T, IBM-N, MG-T, CGX-T are stocks to buy or sell.
As he understands how these split corps work, one gets the dividend and one gets the growth. It depends on what you want out of life. If you want street yield, these manufactured products might be right for you. He doesn’t buy them because he doesn’t like his clients to be paying 2 layers of fees. He isn’t against the product. Dividend yield of 14%.
This was a pure propane business, and then went into building products, pulp chemicals, and none of those worked out very well. The history of expanding its product line is not a great one. However, this has been a strong dividend payer for a long time. Doesn’t think it has tremendous growth potential and that their propane business is always going to be a kind of “on the margin” type of business. You own this for the dividend yield of 5.7%, not the growth.
This does what everybody in the big institutional world wants to do. It owns real assets. Railways, highways, seaports, hydroelectric dams, and manages hundreds of billions of money that it gets paid a fee on and that it gets a “carried interest” on. A lot of people don’t understand the value of “carried interest”. If it buys a major project, which gets sold 10 years later, it gets a piece of the action which doesn’t show up on its balance sheet right now. Brookfield thinks its shares, that are currently in the $50 range, are going to be $100 a share in 5 years. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.)
Thinks online travel booking, which is only 25% of the market in Asia right now, is going to be huge, and this company is only one of 2 huge players in the industry right now. It is going to make a lot of money going forward. The stock is down about 10% from where it was and has a wonderful growth profile ahead of it. (Analysts’ price target is $2,100.)
Canadian Economy.The strength in the Canadian economy is one of the biggest surprises for financial markets. His outlook is fairly strong. It is on pretty solid footing. Oil prices are now back over $50, which is stabilizing things in Western Canada. There is continued infrastructure spending across the country. There are a lot more hiring signs around, so employment seems to be strong. Minimum wage increases in different provinces will affect things longer-term, putting pressure on businesses and earnings, which could be a problem for the stock market and some of the retail sectors. It probably also drives a fair amount of automation through some of those lower skilled jobs, and could sow the seeds of another employment downturn 3-5 years out. In the meantime, it is a good thing because they have got strong employment so those wage pressures will be pushed upwards through the whole system and should be good for the consumer economy, but eventually there is a limit to that.
Energy.With higher oil prices there is concern that US producers will tend to open the spigot. This week, the US added rigs for the 1st time in about 8 weeks, and prices became a bit soft. However, he is looking positively at the Brent price, which has moved up over $55 in backwardation, which typically means the stock market is getting tighter. Also, there are increased US exports, which is really needed to clear the inventory balance in the US, moving barrels from West to East. As long as the demand picture remains solid, he doesn’t think US shale can really do that much more at $50-$55, but if it gets much more above that, there could be some additional production come on.
Started purchasing this in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis at around $40. It went down to $26, and he averaged clients in. Has had a nice annualized return on this, but wonders how much further it can go. The space they operate in is reasonably mature. While there is always going to be growth in this industry, he isn’t sure it will continue at the rate it has. He is looking for a possible replacement on this. If it headed back up towards $60, he would take a harder look at selling. Dividend yield of 3%+.
Energy infrastructure is the largest over-weight in his portfolio, because production of both oil and natural gas in North America has doubled in the last 5-10 years. Not only has production doubled, but it is going completely in the opposite way that it used to. We built all these regasification terminals on the East and West Coasts to bring in LNG. We built all these oil offloading terminals on the Gulf Coast to take oil into the Midwest to refine it, and now oil is going the complete opposite way, as is natural gas for export. This creates a tremendous opportunity for these infrastructure companies. They are undertaking the largest capital project in their history with the line 3 replacement.
As a bulk commodities miner, this is looking more interesting. The space has really perked up over the last 6 months. He is starting to see some signs of inflation and the things that are related to inflation. 2018 will be a key year as to whether we get the kind of recovery and move that we saw in the late 2007-2008 and 2010. He would be watching these types of companies.