Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Bruce Tatters commented about whether MSFT-Q, VLO-N, JBLU-Q, BAC-N, CM-T, PFE-N, CBS-N, AMZN-Q, NPI-T, WFC-N, SWKS-Q, AGN-N, AAPL-Q, XPO-N, GS-N, MS-N, PRU-N, MET-N, MFC-T, HAZ-T, TOY-T, FIE-T, BAM.A-T, ZPW-T are stocks to buy or sell.
He loves this strategy as a low risk way to get exposure to the market. Write a put way below the market and take in the premium. 15-20% below market. It is diversified. It takes in about a 10% yield. They don’t want to own the stocks so if they end up buying them they sell and that costs 3%, making it a 7% return. You get that yield with half the risk of the market. Since recession is a real risk, this is a great way to hold the US market.
Good quality banks and insurance companies. It is not a good time to step in at this time. It is at all time highs. Its bonds are short term corporate bonds so you don’t have interest rate risk. The risks are far too high with these companies right now, however. He does not think Trump will cause interest rates to go up the way analysts predict.
Educational Segment. Momentum and value in smart beta ETFs. Vanguard has a couple of smart strategies. They think smart indexing is an active strategy. They debate Larry in disagreeing it is active in that it is a set of rules. The Momentum strategy is benefiting from a behavioral bias in the market place where investors are slow to react. The Liquidity strategy focuses on companies that are smaller and don’t trade as much, aren’t in the news as much and so may be undervalued. Investors overpay for liquidity in the market place. Less liquid names, also have more risk. A quarter of Vanguards assets under management are actively managed.
Markets. The US$ and the Markets have both been going up due to the Trump effect. They will need time to digest what has just happened. It is important to consider changing government regulation and how it effects each stock you might invest in. The market is starting to discount that we will see less regulation and lower taxes in the US. Trade policies changing are murkier and will have to play out.
It ran into trouble when the roll up stories got into trouble in 2015. They ended up with too much debt. They ended up with fantastic businesses. He got into it early this year. He thought they would stop doing that and let the entity do well without further acquisitions and they did. Its earnings and outlook have improved a lot over the last couple of quarters. He really likes it.
Markets. Ottawa wants an end to coal for 2030. If he was the CEO of a utility, then he would probably view Trump’s bringing back coal as a temporary thing in that kind of timeframe. The world is moving away from coal and the coal jobs are not coming back. OPEC is going to talk up a cutting back on production of oil, but they have always cheated. If OPEC cuts back then the US and Canada will just boost theirs. He thinks there might be a freeze on production levels. Oil stocks on the TSX are priced for $60-$65 oil. If oil goes up to $60, these stocks could go a little higher than they are today, but they are basically discounting this level. You could be a buyer on dips, but don’t chase it. Oil is lower for longer. Fixing roads and bridges is not going impact any US infrastructure ETFs as they are pipelines and utility stocks. There are no companies in these ETFs that would benefit. The exposure is zero to Trump’s infrastructure spending.