Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Don Vialoux commented about whether WFG-T, CASH, SVR-T, CGL-T, CSCO-Q, BPY.UN-T, HBM-T, H-T, TECK.B-T, HXD-T, META-Q, SSRM-T, V-N, FTS-T, FXL-N, FDY-T, ARE-T, LNR-T, ECI-T, XMA-T, BBD.B-T, MRE-T, MFC-T, SU-T, XSU-T, CXR-T, ZJG-T, ZUT-T are stocks to buy or sell.
A few stocks are responsible for most of the movement in the valuation. This ETF offers diversification, unless you have some special talent for picking the best stocks of the sector. If you have only a few of the stocks, then you are more subject to volatility. This is an equal weighted ETF and he likes it for that reason.
Educational Segment. Earnings Season. Brexit and so on will get pushed to the back burner temporarily. The focus will be on earnings. Revenue is important. The S&P is expected to decline in earnings for the 5th quarter in a row. It is expected to be down 0.8%. Next year the expectation is that revenue growth comes back. Technology and financials are expected to be bad for Q2/16, but to grow a lot in 2017. Price to sales ratio. In ’98 to ’00, markets doubled. The price of the S&P vs. its revenue got to a little over 2. We don’t have that same economic tailwind now. The current ratio is 1.9. When the price to sales ratio is this extreme, companies miss all the time in earnings. There is a risk of a 10 to 15% correction.
Markets. The S&P went into an all time high today. It is not unusual this time of year to see the TSX go into a double dip. It usually bottoms around the end of October. We will probably reach a seasonal peak at the end of this week. In presidential years it is a little bit different. These reach the high in early June and then peak again at the end of July. This might be as good as it gets until the middle of the fall. The markets have already anticipated earnings numbers. The question is what they will do with future results. Stock prices should move lower into this fall due to declining earnings. There is always something that happens in the summer to drive markets lower.
Markets. They are having a referendum in Italy in October. If Italy goes, the whole thing falls apart. If France goes, the whole thing falls apart also. Gas prices are pointing to weakness in crude oil. Usually refiners build up inventories for the summer, but the demand has not been there. We are 10-15% below averages and this is negative for West Texas oil. He thinks we will see a dip below $40 this fall in the price of oil. Energy stocks should fall off 10% and this would be your next buying opportunity.