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US$. Where there are free-flowing currencies, and countries have to repay interest and the notional value of the bond in US dollars, it is going to be a lot more expensive for them. This will likely cause some credit stress over the next year or so. He is pretty sure the dollar is going to remain strong over the next year or so versus most currencies, specifically the euro and the yen. For the first time ever, Chinese estate values are going down. Money has been coming out of there to feed the stock market. Chinese mainland stocks have doubled over the last year or so, more importantly the last 6 months. Margin requirements were raised on Friday, but to combat that a shift in the reserve ratios to kind of neutralize things, the market seem to be a little positive this morning that there is no worsening in the Greek situation. Year-on-year earnings are declining, most of it, not all, is coming from the energy sector. He expects this for the next number of quarters.

This is a smart Index where they take the Russell 1000, top 100 quality US stocks on a dividend basis equal weighted. A dividend payer of around 3% in the US. It is going to trade very similar to what the S&P 500 does to the Dow. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end of the year at 2100, right about where we are now. If it is sideways, and maybe a little lower, you want to have more focus on dividends in your portfolio, because it is a bit more defensive way of playing the market. A complement to that could be the Dow with a covered call, which would hedge your currency.

Fixed Income Suggestions. There are a couple of things to consider. You have credit risks. Corporate bonds, with the worse quality of these being high-yield or junk bonds. You will get a much higher yield, but those correlate a lot more with equity returns than they do with bond returns in general. If you don’t want a lot of interest rate risks, then a short term, 1 to 5 year laddered bond portfolio. All of the providers have them. If you fear that credit might be a problem at some point, then you want something with a bit longer duration on the government side. If stocks fall, government bonds will tend to do well. Longer maturities tend to do better than shorter ones when you have a flight to safety.

Gold. At $1150, he kind of likes some exposure to gold. If you are going to hold gold for a long period of time, you are probably better holding gold equities, as gold bullion yields nothing. If you are thinking about trading, ETF’s are fine for that. He would suggest 5% or 10% in your portfolio.

These reset preferreds are linked to the 5 year bond. So when the reset provisions come into play, if the bond yield is much lower, then the new coupon payment is going to be a lot less on the preferreds. They are more linked to fixed income than they are to equities. So if equity markets fall 10% on a correction, preferreds might fall 1%-2%, or sometimes they might go up depending on what is happening to interest rates at the time. They are a good diversifier because of this to get yield. He uses it by increasing his preferred exposure versus common. For example ZDV-T is the way to play high dividends in the Canadian market, which is 50 of the best dividend payers. When he fears the risk on the common shares, he wants a little more exposure to ZPR and when he feels the outlook is more for growth, he wants more ZDV. Meanwhile they both yield him more than 4% and it is a nice way to get Canadian tax efficient dividends in your taxable portfolio.

Natural gas ETF, based on an outlook prices will increase in 3-5 years. There are 2 ways to play this. In the US FCG-N is the large cap natural gas weighted ETF of the companies. You get a dividend on this. In Canada ZJN-T is the Junior natural gas weighted ETF. If you have a 3 to 5 year view, do not even remotely consider any ETF’s linked to the underlying commodity. The underlying NAV erosion, over a long period of time, could be toxic.

Greece. We are now in Act III of the Greek tragedy. No one knows for sure how this is going to play out. For a German taxpayer, who has just had his retirement age raised to 67, to use his tax dollars for his government to fund Greece, where a guy there retires at 55, it doesn’t add up. Feels it ultimately comes apart, but the pride in Europe is really strong and they are going to try to keep it together. A chart showing capital outflows as a percentage of GDP in Greece shows the intensity in the last 6 months is far greater than in previous ones. People with money in the banks in Cyprus actually lost money on their deposits. This is why money is fleeing Greece. About a year ago, Greece was able to come back to the bond market and issue bonds. They issued a 3 year bond at 3.38 which is currently yielding 27%. That is pricing in over a 50% chance of default. The European bank Index is still 60% below its peak before the crisis of 2008-2009. We are back up to the levels where we had seen problems. The vast majority of European banks failed the stress tests. He doesn’t think a QE is going to help and fix this.

Energy. Has sold all his energy producers and is out of energy completely, except for Pembina Pipeline (PPL-T) and Keyera (KEY-T). Hasn’t made a lot of money on energy, even in good times. Prefers owning companies that have strong pricing power, have the ability to raise their prices, and the ability to raise and compound capital over time, in a more certain business environment.

The only pure play pharmaceutical manager that is publicly traded. This is an industry that is an oligopoly and has pricing power.

Markets. 25% of the Canadian Index is tied to energy or energy related companies, as well as other related plays in the index. Not easy to get diversified, so he has gone outside of Canada to get exposure. The great companies have PEs priced at excessive levels, because there is nothing else to buy. When you gravitate to looking for non-commodity related companies, everybody else is looking for them too, so valuations are too high. Because of this, he is looking outside of Canada and has found a lot of good ideas in the US. US and Canadian financials look extremely cheap. Also, healthcare and US technology also look attractive.

Whistler didn’t get a lot of snow this year, which can be a problem when running a ski lift operation. This is 2 years in a row. These are world class operators with a terrific asset. No one can predict what is going to happen with weather. Thinks earnings this year are going to be a little bit better than last year, so there is no cause for concern. The dividend is not in peril whatsoever. At anywhere under $19, he has been buying and adding. Not cheap at 27X forward earnings. 5.4% dividend yield.

Has been no oomph in the stock and has been disappointing to investors. Launched a new manufacturing facility to try and get more private label toilet paper and tissues into the US via Wal-Mart (WMT-N). They are slowly, but surely, filling the pipeline, and earnings are going to grow. Respectable dividend of 4.45%. Valuation is very attractive. He is hoping that 2016 is going to be the break out year for this. You are getting paid to wait.

This has been an all-star performer and has been very successfully making lots of acquisitions. The valuation seems a little too rich. This is a company that you could probably buy on a pullback and hold in your portfolio for years and years to come.

A good entry point and he would be a buyer. Warren Buffett is the greatest capital allocator and one of the greatest investors. Looking at this for his clients. A wonderful company, and at some point are probably going to have to start a dividend.

A great company. Has owned this in the past, but he is an active manager and his clients pay him to pick the best companies, so he has stuck with Empire (EMP.A-T). The 3 grocery chains, including Loblaw’s (L-T) have all been great performers over the past couple of years. 1.2% dividend yield.