Stockchase Opinions

Barry Schwartz Whistler Blackcomb Holdings WB-T BUY Apr 20, 2015

Whistler didn’t get a lot of snow this year, which can be a problem when running a ski lift operation. This is 2 years in a row. These are world class operators with a terrific asset. No one can predict what is going to happen with weather. Thinks earnings this year are going to be a little bit better than last year, so there is no cause for concern. The dividend is not in peril whatsoever. At anywhere under $19, he has been buying and adding. Not cheap at 27X forward earnings. 5.4% dividend yield.

$18.150

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

A ski resort with some real estate potential. Most of the real estate potential has been milked in the past. You are really betting on the weather and the US$. Pays a pretty hefty dividend, so that tends to support the valuation. He finds it very expensive for what it is. Not a lot of growth potential.

BUY

It has been doing extremely well. It is good weather that is responsible. It is one of the few that has survived the ‘shaving’ of the best. They don’t seem to want to expand, but they have massive resource.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 14/15. Up 32.5%.) The Whistler Blackcomb ski resort and they own the real estate. He saw solid fundamentals for ski resorts, one of the few that was world class. Also, had an 8.5% yield which was sustainable. Still trading at a bit of a discount to US resorts, so there is still some upside, but is no longer cheap.

WATCH

It has been in a great trend. Higher highs and higher lows. The stock deserves the movement it got. Right now it is off its trend line. It is starting to get rather overbought. He would not be surprised if it pulled back a bit, but if you are a long term buyer it looks pretty good.

TOP PICK

They have been expanding in making what they call a 4 season investment plan. They need first nations approval, but claim they can make so much cash flow that they don’t have to dilute shareholders with share issue. They had a great ski season and are selling out for 2017.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 14/15. Up 37.03%.) A premier ski resort and destination, and benefits from the low Cdn$. A really well-managed company. They have cut costs and reinvested.

COMMENT

Their asset previously was mainly a ski operation and real estate, but more recently have gotten a very large capital program underway, to try and make it into a more all year round destination with spring, summer and fall activities. Long-term this will probably help them deal with the volatility of cash flow and dependence on weather. Dividend yield of 3.8%.

WATCH

(Market Call Minute) Ranks well, but deteriorated in the summer. Look at it again depending on what winter will bring.

HOLD

Being acquired. You can take your cash and shares or you could move on to something else. The acquirer is a much bigger company with more diversity.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 6/16. Up 43.11%.) Now owned by Vail Resorts, and he has held onto the Vail shares.