This is a tricky area. He is not in the forest products side at all, but watching it closely. The real problem is that the demand for various parts of their business, both lumber and logs, tends to fluctuate. For a while Asians were big buyers of logs, but that has fallen off because the Russians are cutting prices. Also, US housing starts have been on-again off-again. He is reasonably convinced that the US housing starts are going to start to show the kind of growth that he expected a few years ago.
Gas. A few years ago, prices were in the $6 range, and everybody was predicting it would go to $8. Then, along came the Montney and big gas discoveries. The cost of wells dropped and people didn’t think they could survive at $3 gas. We are now at $2+ and they are still producing almost excess amounts. We are in the process of building export facilities, but in the meantime gas is going to be very cheap in North America for the foreseeable future.
Holding on to his holdings because of the dividend. Also, they have long-term contracts with a number of very large producers. Some of these oil sands projects are still coming on and haven’t even started producing. This company is closely linked to these. The next 2-3 years still looks like there is good growth and good cash flow. By that time, the price of oil will be back into a more reasonable level.
(A Top Pick April 8/14. Down 18.99%.) He still likes this and has added to his position at lower prices. It has been working its way back up. In the Bakken, one of the better areas. Expects they will make some acquisitions that will be very advantageous to them. Feels the dividend is relatively safe.
His philosophy on airlines is “don’t invest”. He has seen too many airlines over the years go under for various reasons. It is in a good environment. The cost of fuel has gone down. Travel is definitely up. They should do quite well, but these stocks tend to be pretty darn volatile at times. It may be that an increase in the price of oil and jet fuel would be enough to knock these stocks right down again.
Markets. We are at a crucial point here. If there is a settlement with Iran, and it looks like there will be additional supplies come out, there could be some more weakness. There is some concern about the amount of oil in storage. If it gets full there could be problems. Feels that is a little overdone as the guys out there are smart enough to know where to put oil when they buy it. We are in a transition. He is projecting a lower price, with a $60-$70 range, but not until late this year or early next year. There is a lot of tight oil globally and technology is in place, and they will use it. Lower energy costs are a worldwide bonus, particularly in North America because we are the biggest per capita energy users. The Canadian economy is going to face some drag from Alberta, but he still thinks we can manage between 1%-2% growth. Being next door to the US and with a lower dollar, that is going to help us.