Brendan Caldwell Alphabet Inc GOOG-Q PARTIAL BUY Apr 03, 2025

Shares jumped over 8% today on a court ruling; GOOG skirts an anti-trust, anti-monopolistic ruling involving Apple. He regrets selling it before after a huge gain. 

Some regulatory risks have now lifted. Still a decent valuation of 23x forward PE, discount to mega-cap peers. Continues to dominate digital ad space. Applying generative AI across the board. Cloud's a bit behind MSFT and AWS, but the entire space is growing so revenues are too. $100B in cash reserves gives lots of options.

Great week, partially because US government announced no breakup. Cheapest of the Mag 7 at 22x PE, growing 20% a year. Negative is that ChatGPT will encroach on Search. Waymo is, by far, the leader in self-driving. Great business.

How will AI impact their search engine? So far, so good, though. Will be fine.

It has been allowed to keep Chrome so that decision is good for the company. The legal system in the U.S. can't keep up with the fast pace in the market place, especially tech. The anti-trust laws were created over 100 years ago. Google hasn't raised or lowered prices and lots of it is free.

Is up 33% this year, 4.49% today alone. He made the mistake of selling it, because he feared the government would come down on them for anti-trust. Didn't happen. This and the Mag 7 have much more room to run. 

A 2 to 3 year timeline is the sweet spot for a long term investor. It is generally easier to form a thesis over three years. Acceleration is remarkable and no case has been made for a monopoly. Google can compete on the AI front and there is not as much focus on the search component. The value of the sum of its parts is greater than people realize.

Things change quickly in the space. Was viewed as AI runner-up, and now seen as a leader. Search was seen to be in jeopardy, but now that view has changed as well. He looks at valuation and steepness of revisions on earnings estimates. He's buying for new clients.

The question was on his opinion of these two companies. They're different sizes and in different spaces. What will the business models look like. Both should continue to do well. He owns Amazon which is among the AI leaders. Interest rates will continue to drive the markets.