Bryden Teich Boston Beer SAM-N DON'T BUY Nov 17, 2021

They report Wednesday. They sell a red-hot hard seltzer. If another competitor comes out with their own seltzer, it may be too much for SAM to handle, but they have enough momentum against their peers. He expects them to report another good quarter, though the field is getting crowded.

They report Thursday. The shorts, as they always do, will lean against SAM, because of their competition. SAM should do just fine, he thinks.

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks SAM stock has also run up a lot this year so far, soaring 31% YTD by mid-April, but since plunging to to 6% YTD last week. Based on this metric, I would rule out SAM, but just last week, the company announced a Canadian pilot program to eventually launch non-alcoholic cannabis drinks. Details are few, but this program is one to watch. Despite its manic run, Boston Beer still outperforms Constellation YTD at 12% to 7%, and the stocks are starting to diverge again. Wall Street likes (but doesn’t love) SAM by awarding it six buys but also five holds and projects 26% upside to $1,396.30. Read 2 Top American Beer Stocks for our full analysis.

Hard seltzer's growth isn't sustainable, though the street believes it. The stock has pulled back, but still isn't cheap. He sees low-single-digit growth in the sector for a while. He'd wait for this to pull back even more.

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks Unfortunately, SAM has missed all of its last four quarters, and they were wide misses. Its EPS is $-4.31 and worse, has declined 123.17% over the past year. SAM’s PE is -85.1x and profit margin is a woeful -2.73%. In Q1, shipment volumes fell 25% YOY as demand decreased. Revenue fell 21% in the quarter and its gross margin slipped from 45.8% to 40.2% YOY. The company has weak pricing power in a highly competitive business. Lots of negatives among its fundamentals. No surprise that Sam pays no dividend. The street feels lukewarm towards SAM stocks with five buys and six holds with a $442.90 price target or 23% higher. But will it get there? Read Summer stocks fun or summertime blues? 3 stocks to consider this summer for our full analysis.

It reports Thursday. He expects declining numbers, especially their hard seltzer sales. He prefers STZ for its strong beer brands (which he owns).

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

SAM produces and sells a number of popular beer and seltzer brands including Samuel Adams and Twisted Tea. The stock has taken a hit recently after missing on revenue and EPS forecasts for Q2. Analyst estimates forecast significant EPS expansion over the next three-years and modest revenue growth. EPS margin expansion has been displayed over the last few quarters but revenue has been flat/declining since the beginning of 2023. The balance sheet looks solid with a nice net cash position at $178.8M. We do not see any history of the company ever paying a dividend. SAM has been working to expand its margins and so far this looks to have been effective with gross margins expanding 2.5% year-to-date. However, the company and industry are faced with a tough consumer environment which has seen sales being flat/declining. SAM trades at 27.1x forward earnings but only 1.6x forward sales. With the hope of earnings expansion, we are not overly interested here and think that investors can find more attractive growth opportunities at similar or better valuation levels. 
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