Opinions by Geoff Scott | StockChase
26
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Dec 2017

Cambridge Global Asset Management

26
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Dec 2017

Cambridge Global Asset Management


Opinions by Geoff Scott


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 27, 2017

Model Portfolio for 2018 Look at individual companies, specific fundamentals, and individual drivers and build a portfolio that’s diversified across industries, sectors and around the world when appropropriate. On the margin, they are generally seeing better opportunities in Europe and Asia. Opportunities like the UK who are undergoing their negotiations for Brexit is where a macro event is creating some specific opportunities. Tax packages in the US are definitely going to be a tailwind for earnings in 2018.

Model Portfolio for 2018 Look at individual companies, specific fundamentals, and individual drivers and build a portfolio that’s diversified across industries, sectors and around the world when appropropriate. On the margin, they are generally seeing better opportunities in Europe and Asia. Opportunities like the UK who are undergoing their negotiations for Brexit is where a macro event is creating some specific opportunities. Tax packages in the US are definitely going to be a tailwind for earnings in 2018.

Unknown
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 27, 2017

Industrials Impact of the Technological Revolution Industrials are one of those areas that the benefits of technology hasn’t been fully felt yet. He’d rather see a diversified portfolio across a number of different industries and sectors. Financial Technology is also influencing the banking sector.

Industrials Impact of the Technological Revolution Industrials are one of those areas that the benefits of technology hasn’t been fully felt yet. He’d rather see a diversified portfolio across a number of different industries and sectors. Financial Technology is also influencing the banking sector.

Unknown
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 27, 2017

U.S. Dollar The Canadian dollar is probably getting closer to fully valuated and it's hard to see sustained upside. He favours U.S dollar at this time. Sees upside interests rates in the U.S. and sees the economy moving in the right direction. Leaning toward seeing 3 interest rate hikes in the U.S. in 2018.

U.S. Dollar The Canadian dollar is probably getting closer to fully valuated and it's hard to see sustained upside. He favours U.S dollar at this time. Sees upside interests rates in the U.S. and sees the economy moving in the right direction. Leaning toward seeing 3 interest rate hikes in the U.S. in 2018.

Unknown
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
SELL
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

December 27, 2017

Great company obviously. Given where we are in the iPhone cycle, thinks now it’s time to take some profit and look for a better entry point in 2018 or beyond.  From here, it’s hard to see what will backfill that growth in 2018. Thinks it’s better to take some profits now. Sees better opportunities in the supply chain and in names like Broadcom (AVGO-Q).

electrical/electronic

Great company obviously. Given where we are in the iPhone cycle, thinks now it’s time to take some profit and look for a better entry point in 2018 or beyond.  From here, it’s hard to see what will backfill that growth in 2018. Thinks it’s better to take some profits now. Sees better opportunities in the supply chain and in names like Broadcom (AVGO-Q).

electrical/electronic
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$170.600
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

A good time to buy? Likes it. One of those Canadian companies that are a global champion. They operate convenience stores better than anyone else in the world almost. Very good at allocating capital. They executed on their growth through acquisition strategies very efficiently. Just received regulatory approval on their acquisition of Holiday. They should be able to generate additional synergies that should translate into more cash flow and earnings. Margin on oil price is a driver for their profitability. Very good merchandiser, being able to upsell and driving incremental same store sales growth. Sees possibility to continue to grow earnings and potential margin expansion. Trading around 16.5X earnings today versus the low 20s they peaked out in the past. Not expensive relative to its own history. Very good historical business in Canada and a global champion. (Analysts’ price target is $79.)

food stores

A good time to buy? Likes it. One of those Canadian companies that are a global champion. They operate convenience stores better than anyone else in the world almost. Very good at allocating capital. They executed on their growth through acquisition strategies very efficiently. Just received regulatory approval on their acquisition of Holiday. They should be able to generate additional synergies that should translate into more cash flow and earnings. Margin on oil price is a driver for their profitability. Very good merchandiser, being able to upsell and driving incremental same store sales growth. Sees possibility to continue to grow earnings and potential margin expansion. Trading around 16.5X earnings today versus the low 20s they peaked out in the past. Not expensive relative to its own history. Very good historical business in Canada and a global champion. (Analysts’ price target is $79.)

food stores
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$65.720
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Boeing(BA-N) 

December 27, 2017

Has had a fantastic year, mostly driven by strong free cash flow growth coming off of their 787 program.  Doesn’t think now is a good time to buy in. Stocks has doubled over the last year which is really unusual for a mega cap like this one. Better to look elsewhere. Aerospace isn’t an area where they are invested heavily in at this time.

Transportation

Has had a fantastic year, mostly driven by strong free cash flow growth coming off of their 787 program.  Doesn’t think now is a good time to buy in. Stocks has doubled over the last year which is really unusual for a mega cap like this one. Better to look elsewhere. Aerospace isn’t an area where they are invested heavily in at this time.

Transportation
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$295.620
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

December 27, 2017

Doesn’t think this is a time to buy in.  They owned it and sold out of it toward the end of 2016 and 2017. The good news are already priced in. Cyclical. When they bought in 2016 it was trading around 8-9X earnings, today it’s around 13.5X earnings. The multiple expanded along with the fundamentals.Thinks the upside and fundamentals are already priced in. (Analysts’ price target is $30.25.)

banks

Doesn’t think this is a time to buy in.  They owned it and sold out of it toward the end of 2016 and 2017. The good news are already priced in. Cyclical. When they bought in 2016 it was trading around 8-9X earnings, today it’s around 13.5X earnings. The multiple expanded along with the fundamentals.Thinks the upside and fundamentals are already priced in. (Analysts’ price target is $30.25.)

banks
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$29.730
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

Really appreciate the way they go about their business. They own great returns and have been great capital allocators. They typically find great opportunities when they find distressed sellers or unique assets to buy. Sold out their holding in the last month or so given the valuation they’ve seen.  As had a great run and doubled in the last number of years. (Analysts’ price target $46.64.)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

Really appreciate the way they go about their business. They own great returns and have been great capital allocators. They typically find great opportunities when they find distressed sellers or unique assets to buy. Sold out their holding in the last month or so given the valuation they’ve seen.  As had a great run and doubled in the last number of years. (Analysts’ price target $46.64.)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$57.850
Owned Owned
No

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PARTIAL BUY
CCL Industries (B)(CCL.B-T) 

December 27, 2017

This is a company they liked for a long time and they continue to like it. Had their executives in their offices 2 weeks ago to give an update. They are continuing to execute, has been a great compounder for shareholders over the long term. 2017 hasn’t been their best year in their history, but it’s positioned well for 2018. Certainly not a cheap stock, valuation reflects the solid fundamentals ahead, and he thinks it’s a good one to stick with in the long term. Feels comfortable buying at $58, maybe don’t initiate a full position, give yourself room to add more if we do get a broader market sell-off or something specific to CCL Industries.

packaging/containers

This is a company they liked for a long time and they continue to like it. Had their executives in their offices 2 weeks ago to give an update. They are continuing to execute, has been a great compounder for shareholders over the long term. 2017 hasn’t been their best year in their history, but it’s positioned well for 2018. Certainly not a cheap stock, valuation reflects the solid fundamentals ahead, and he thinks it’s a good one to stick with in the long term. Feels comfortable buying at $58, maybe don’t initiate a full position, give yourself room to add more if we do get a broader market sell-off or something specific to CCL Industries.

packaging/containers
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$58.820
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Canadian National R.R.(CNR-T) 

December 27, 2017

Has been a great performer for many years. They have one of the best networks in North America. They benefited from having the best operations in North America. Has been a great compound of value in the long term. Owns Canadian Pacific (CP-T) instead. They both offer similar exposure. Good stock to own for the long term, but probably not the best opportunity to buy at this point given the rebound in economic growth and rail volumes.

Transportation

Has been a great performer for many years. They have one of the best networks in North America. They benefited from having the best operations in North America. Has been a great compound of value in the long term. Owns Canadian Pacific (CP-T) instead. They both offer similar exposure. Good stock to own for the long term, but probably not the best opportunity to buy at this point given the rebound in economic growth and rail volumes.

Transportation
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$104.090
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
CSX Corp(CSX-Q) 

December 27, 2017

Likes it very much. Had been under some pressure. CEO Hunter Harrison passed away a few weeks ago. Bought in and agreed with the transformation Hunter brought to CSX. The remaining executive team led by James Foote now are going to carry on the transformational plan.

Transportation

Likes it very much. Had been under some pressure. CEO Hunter Harrison passed away a few weeks ago. Bought in and agreed with the transformation Hunter brought to CSX. The remaining executive team led by James Foote now are going to carry on the transformational plan.

Transportation
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$55.140
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
Canadian Western Bank(CWB-T) 

December 27, 2017

Doesn’t like. They don’t own any of the banks in Canada. It’s one he would avoid he doesn’t see good upside.  Had a nice rebounce coming back from the energy issues that plagued the sector in 2015 and early 2016. If he owned, he would look at trimming and wouldn’t be picking up here. The oil environment has improved and gotten a lot better and thinks Canadian Western Bank is fully valued at this point. It’s a valuation issue, and also a broader issue around the banking sector with valuations, you are paying for the fundamentals, and thinks fundamentals are rather toppy in terms of the credit cycle.

banks

Doesn’t like. They don’t own any of the banks in Canada. It’s one he would avoid he doesn’t see good upside.  Had a nice rebounce coming back from the energy issues that plagued the sector in 2015 and early 2016. If he owned, he would look at trimming and wouldn’t be picking up here. The oil environment has improved and gotten a lot better and thinks Canadian Western Bank is fully valued at this point. It’s a valuation issue, and also a broader issue around the banking sector with valuations, you are paying for the fundamentals, and thinks fundamentals are rather toppy in terms of the credit cycle.

banks
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$38.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

December 27, 2017

The big news around Disney today is their acquisition of Fox. It’s a huge deal. As the integration unfolds into 2018, you may get a better opportunity to buy in. This whole space and the way people consume media is changing. Disney certainly owns a lot of content that people know and love and watch on a regular basis but the monetization of that will change, and understanding where their potential pinch points are could evolve also.

entertainment services

The big news around Disney today is their acquisition of Fox. It’s a huge deal. As the integration unfolds into 2018, you may get a better opportunity to buy in. This whole space and the way people consume media is changing. Disney certainly owns a lot of content that people know and love and watch on a regular basis but the monetization of that will change, and understanding where their potential pinch points are could evolve also.

entertainment services
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$107.640
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Alphabet Inc. (A)(GOOGL-Q) 

December 27, 2017

It’s a business he really likes. One of their favorites in the FAANG stocks. They’ve been very consistent growers and you’re still not paying up considerably to own that growth. They have a lot of different growth drivers. They are a leader in artificial intelligence. He likes their handset business which he thinks hasn’t had much attention and thinks it could eat some of Apple’s share. (Analysts’ price target $1178.)

Business Services

It’s a business he really likes. One of their favorites in the FAANG stocks. They’ve been very consistent growers and you’re still not paying up considerably to own that growth. They have a lot of different growth drivers. They are a leader in artificial intelligence. He likes their handset business which he thinks hasn’t had much attention and thinks it could eat some of Apple’s share. (Analysts’ price target $1178.)

Business Services
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$1060.200
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
SELL ON STRENGTH
Linamar Corp(LNR-T) 

December 27, 2017

Linamar (LNR-T)  vs Magna (MG-T) vs Martinrea (MRE-T) Has a small position in Magna (MG-T) which is the largest of the three. At this point in the auto cycle in North America, would be very hesitant about adding more. Thinks the bump up in number of vehicles in North America is plateauing. Very cyclical. You can see earnings and cash flow really degrade quickly rapidly. It’s one he would be careful and look for opportunities to sell on strong.

transportation equip & components

Linamar (LNR-T)  vs Magna (MG-T) vs Martinrea (MRE-T) Has a small position in Magna (MG-T) which is the largest of the three. At this point in the auto cycle in North America, would be very hesitant about adding more. Thinks the bump up in number of vehicles in North America is plateauing. Very cyclical. You can see earnings and cash flow really degrade quickly rapidly. It’s one he would be careful and look for opportunities to sell on strong.

transportation equip & components
Geoff Scott

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Cambridge Global Ass...

PricePrice
$73.800
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
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