Opinions by William Chin | StockChase
196
William Chin

Portfolio manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2016

Caldwell Investment Management

196
William Chin

Portfolio manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2016

Caldwell Investment Management


Opinions by William Chin


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

December 29, 2017

Market. The TSX has gone through a bit of a hard time this year, but we’ve broken out from the short term downward trend line, and currently are making decent progress. Charts indicate we should be going upwards, so a bullish conclusion is reasonable. The S&P is a very good upward trend without a broken channel this year. We are now in the early stage of a new bull phase, which argues for the TSX to outperform S&P, but there is no sign the S&P is slowing down. Going into 2018, the Canadian economy has its work cut out for it, as well as having to deal with the NAFTA negotiations.

Market. The TSX has gone through a bit of a hard time this year, but we’ve broken out from the short term downward trend line, and currently are making decent progress. Charts indicate we should be going upwards, so a bullish conclusion is reasonable. The S&P is a very good upward trend without a broken channel this year. We are now in the early stage of a new bull phase, which argues for the TSX to outperform S&P, but there is no sign the S&P is slowing down. Going into 2018, the Canadian economy has its work cut out for it, as well as having to deal with the NAFTA negotiations.

Unknown
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

Must be logged in to use chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

December 29, 2017

Gold. The price broke through $1300 today. Would this be a real break out, or just some year-end adjustment? Would you use the commodity or a stock ETF to give the maximum torque? A 5-year chart shows a saucer formation. Most importantly 2016 was the year of the strong US$. When the US$ is strong, there should be downward pressure on the price of gold. For gold to be able to do well in that scenario, it means the Bear market is now done, and we are on a gentle rising bull market. However, you need to be patient. The best way to own gold is to own a good, Canadian, gold mining company.

Gold. The price broke through $1300 today. Would this be a real break out, or just some year-end adjustment? Would you use the commodity or a stock ETF to give the maximum torque? A 5-year chart shows a saucer formation. Most importantly 2016 was the year of the strong US$. When the US$ is strong, there should be downward pressure on the price of gold. For gold to be able to do well in that scenario, it means the Bear market is now done, and we are on a gentle rising bull market. However, you need to be patient. The best way to own gold is to own a good, Canadian, gold mining company.

Unknown
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 29, 2017

Cd$ VS US$? His forecast for 2018 is that the Cdn$ will be weaker than the US$. In the last few days, the Cdn$ has been rising, but into very thin year end trading. There may be some short-term strength, but the overall big, big picture is still a slower Canadian economy. We have NAFTA negotiations; the US Federal Reserve will raise rates and the Bank of Canada has to give more thought to raising rates.

Cd$ VS US$? His forecast for 2018 is that the Cdn$ will be weaker than the US$. In the last few days, the Cdn$ has been rising, but into very thin year end trading. There may be some short-term strength, but the overall big, big picture is still a slower Canadian economy. We have NAFTA negotiations; the US Federal Reserve will raise rates and the Bank of Canada has to give more thought to raising rates.

Unknown
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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TOP PICK

Grain handling and grain storage. Agriculture is a growing sector globally. Better storage and handling facilities lengthen the shelf life of grains, allowing farmers to get better prices. The chart shows a very nice continuation pattern, and the prevailing trend is up. The stock is driven more by volume than the price of grains. Dividend yield of 4.5%. (Analysts' price target is $63.50.)

machinery

Grain handling and grain storage. Agriculture is a growing sector globally. Better storage and handling facilities lengthen the shelf life of grains, allowing farmers to get better prices. The chart shows a very nice continuation pattern, and the prevailing trend is up. The stock is driven more by volume than the price of grains. Dividend yield of 4.5%. (Analysts' price target is $63.50.)

machinery
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$53.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

December 29, 2017

After a very nice uptrend for the last few years, it’s been consolidating sideways for 2 years. There hasn't been any significant price erosion in the last 2 years, which means that it is a continuation of the prevailing trend, which is up. A dividend yielding, low volatility stock, and the investors tend to be more patient. The key support level is somewhere around $57. As long as it stays above that, this is fine.

telephone utilities

After a very nice uptrend for the last few years, it’s been consolidating sideways for 2 years. There hasn't been any significant price erosion in the last 2 years, which means that it is a continuation of the prevailing trend, which is up. A dividend yielding, low volatility stock, and the investors tend to be more patient. The key support level is somewhere around $57. As long as it stays above that, this is fine.

telephone utilities
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$60.380
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

December 29, 2017

They have a capacity purchase agreement with Air Canada (AC-T). Through that agreement, this company operates Jazz Airline. They also perform in the maintenance and repair business. Recently got a $20 million credit from Fairfax Int., so are expanding into regional airlines on a global basis. As the world becomes smaller, travel increases and this company is in a very good spot. Dividend yield of 5%. (Analysts' price target is $10.50.)

Transportation & Environmental Services

They have a capacity purchase agreement with Air Canada (AC-T). Through that agreement, this company operates Jazz Airline. They also perform in the maintenance and repair business. Recently got a $20 million credit from Fairfax Int., so are expanding into regional airlines on a global basis. As the world becomes smaller, travel increases and this company is in a very good spot. Dividend yield of 5%. (Analysts' price target is $10.50.)

Transportation & Environmental Services
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$9.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY

The parent company Enbridge (ENB-T) has a lot of debt. They are in pipelines which is a tough business because of environmental concerns. This stock, the Enbridge Income Fund is a subordinate to the parent. The chart shows the stock, over the last 3 years, hasn't done much at all. It is a yield generating stock, but doesn't look like it has any momentum. If anything, there is some slight downside risk. He would avoid this.

oil/gas

The parent company Enbridge (ENB-T) has a lot of debt. They are in pipelines which is a tough business because of environmental concerns. This stock, the Enbridge Income Fund is a subordinate to the parent. The chart shows the stock, over the last 3 years, hasn't done much at all. It is a yield generating stock, but doesn't look like it has any momentum. If anything, there is some slight downside risk. He would avoid this.

oil/gas
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$29.810
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
CGI Group (A)(GIB.A-T) 

December 29, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 20/17. Up 2%.) He still likes this. This is IT consulting, and in today's technology heavy world, medium size or smaller businesses find it more challenging every day, to manage the IT side of things. The technology is so sophisticated and the costs are so high, they tend to farm it out, and this company is in the sweet spot in a very, very desirable space.

consulting

(A Top Pick Oct 20/17. Up 2%.) He still likes this. This is IT consulting, and in today's technology heavy world, medium size or smaller businesses find it more challenging every day, to manage the IT side of things. The technology is so sophisticated and the costs are so high, they tend to farm it out, and this company is in the sweet spot in a very, very desirable space.

consulting
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$68.300
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
CGI Group (A)(GIB.A-T) 

December 29, 2017

Chart shows this has been in an up channel since August. The key support is at around $66. Fundamentally, the productivity, security and being competitive is what all companies are looking for these days to stay in business and stay profitable. Outsourcing IT is very important for them to get the maximum for their IT bucks. The growth profile is very good. They’ve had some lower margin contracts expiring, and are replacing them with higher margin ones. Also, they are good acquirers of other businesses. (Analysts' price target is $74.)

consulting

Chart shows this has been in an up channel since August. The key support is at around $66. Fundamentally, the productivity, security and being competitive is what all companies are looking for these days to stay in business and stay profitable. Outsourcing IT is very important for them to get the maximum for their IT bucks. The growth profile is very good. They’ve had some lower margin contracts expiring, and are replacing them with higher margin ones. Also, they are good acquirers of other businesses. (Analysts' price target is $74.)

consulting
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$68.300
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Kelt Exploration(KEL-T) 

December 29, 2017

On a shorter-term chart, the stock is doing quite well, a gentle but up channel. There has been 2.5 years of overhead supply, and we have about 2 years of uptrend, so a good portion of overhead supply should have been digested, although the upside will be somewhat limited. It should still stay in a gentle up channel.

oil/gas

On a shorter-term chart, the stock is doing quite well, a gentle but up channel. There has been 2.5 years of overhead supply, and we have about 2 years of uptrend, so a good portion of overhead supply should have been digested, although the upside will be somewhat limited. It should still stay in a gentle up channel.

oil/gas
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$7.190
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

December 29, 2017

The stock hadn't done much for a long, long time. It’s finally broken out and making some progress. Chart shows a developing channel of higher highs and higher lows. If you own, you have to be patient. Quite likely, too many people were too bullish for too long. The market takes time to digest.

insurance

The stock hadn't done much for a long, long time. It’s finally broken out and making some progress. Chart shows a developing channel of higher highs and higher lows. If you own, you have to be patient. Quite likely, too many people were too bullish for too long. The market takes time to digest.

insurance
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$26.220
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

December 29, 2017

Chart shows a fairly decent up channel from early 2016. The question is, will we break above the old high. Because the up channel is so well-established, he thinks there is a decent chance of breaking out above the old highs. The last 2 days of price declines are still way above the middle of the up-channel. This is a buying opportunity.

Automotive

Chart shows a fairly decent up channel from early 2016. The question is, will we break above the old high. Because the up channel is so well-established, he thinks there is a decent chance of breaking out above the old highs. The last 2 days of price declines are still way above the middle of the up-channel. This is a buying opportunity.

Automotive
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$71.240
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
Martinrea(MRE-T) 

December 29, 2017

Chart shows there has been a bit of a downtrend over the years, but starting in March of this year, it had a very, very healthy breakout. It is currently at the highest point it has reached in 5 years, which means it will probably go even higher. If he had to pick an exit point, it would probably $20 or $21, but it is really too early to say. If you own, keep riding the uptrend, and use a 10% Trailing Stop.

metal fabricators

Chart shows there has been a bit of a downtrend over the years, but starting in March of this year, it had a very, very healthy breakout. It is currently at the highest point it has reached in 5 years, which means it will probably go even higher. If he had to pick an exit point, it would probably $20 or $21, but it is really too early to say. If you own, keep riding the uptrend, and use a 10% Trailing Stop.

metal fabricators
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$16.040
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
WATCH
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

December 29, 2017

Chart shows a very nice up channel. Look for slight yields on RSI readings to buy. Make sure the stock is at the lower end of the Up channel on a weekly chart, and at the same time have a look at the daily chart for any short-term signals, either confirming or refuting the conclusion.

computer software/processing

Chart shows a very nice up channel. Look for slight yields on RSI readings to buy. Make sure the stock is at the lower end of the Up channel on a weekly chart, and at the same time have a look at the daily chart for any short-term signals, either confirming or refuting the conclusion.

computer software/processing
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$85.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
SELL
New Gold Inc.(NGD-T) 

December 29, 2017

Chart shows a bunch of lower highs. The group of sellers are accepting lower and lower prices and are willing to sell. The buyers are sticking to a certain price (about $3.75 or $4) and are not willing to step up. Sellers are getting more aggressive and buyers are not. If he owned, he would be selling.

precious metals

Chart shows a bunch of lower highs. The group of sellers are accepting lower and lower prices and are willing to sell. The buyers are sticking to a certain price (about $3.75 or $4) and are not willing to step up. Sellers are getting more aggressive and buyers are not. If he owned, he would be selling.

precious metals
William Chin

Portfolio manager, Caldwell Investment ...

PricePrice
$4.130
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
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