Stock Opinions by Michael Decter - Stockchase Experts
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Michael Decter @

On Stockchase since : Nov 2006

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Stock Opinions by Michael Decter - Stockchase Experts


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 9, 2018

What are markets reacting to? Tug of war. US economy very strong plus some amount of coordinated global growth. So, intact growth and employment story. On other hand, Trump-inspired jitters. Market can’t decide if real trade war or just noisy public bargaining. Most people see deals being reached. Also reacting to rising interest rates.

What are markets reacting to? Tug of war. US economy very strong plus some amount of coordinated global growth. So, intact growth and employment story. On other hand, Trump-inspired jitters. Market can’t decide if real trade war or just noisy public bargaining. Most people see deals being reached. Also reacting to rising interest rates.

Unknown
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 9, 2018

NAFTA being shrugged off by markets? Yes, because markets get conditioned to the headlines. NAFTA looks clearly like it will get a deal with Mexico on car parts, and then maybe Canada will follow. US plays the supply management card 75% because they want “something else.” One thing US really wants is to lower tariffs on packages going across the border, such as those coming from Amazon.

NAFTA being shrugged off by markets? Yes, because markets get conditioned to the headlines. NAFTA looks clearly like it will get a deal with Mexico on car parts, and then maybe Canada will follow. US plays the supply management card 75% because they want “something else.” One thing US really wants is to lower tariffs on packages going across the border, such as those coming from Amazon.

Unknown
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Parkland Fuel Corp(PKI-T) 

August 9, 2018

It’s been on a tear. Really likes it. Terrifically well run. Argument for paying $40 is the multiple’s less than Couche-Tard. Argument for not paying $40 is it’s close to its all-time high. If gets back to mid-30s, they’ll be heavy buyers. Long-term hold, not a trade.

merchandising/lodging

It’s been on a tear. Really likes it. Terrifically well run. Argument for paying $40 is the multiple’s less than Couche-Tard. Argument for not paying $40 is it’s close to its all-time high. If gets back to mid-30s, they’ll be heavy buyers. Long-term hold, not a trade.

merchandising/lodging
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$40.140
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Extendicare Inc(EXE-T) 

August 9, 2018

Owned in past, not now. Two concerns are the balance sheet and government involvement. Current Ontario inquiry plus more regulation could squeeze margins. Well run, lots of growth. Regulatory environment would keep him away.

other services

Owned in past, not now. Two concerns are the balance sheet and government involvement. Current Ontario inquiry plus more regulation could squeeze margins. Well run, lots of growth. Regulatory environment would keep him away.

other services
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$7.530
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD

Hold or sell? Prem Watsa is bright and capable. So he’s puzzled that this has failed to gain. India still has big challenges. Inclined to hold and give it some time. If he were way up, might sell some. Betting on Watsa’s ability to navigate investments in India. Lots of opportunity, but lots of history to overcome.

E.T.F.'s

Hold or sell? Prem Watsa is bright and capable. So he’s puzzled that this has failed to gain. India still has big challenges. Inclined to hold and give it some time. If he were way up, might sell some. Betting on Watsa’s ability to navigate investments in India. Lots of opportunity, but lots of history to overcome.

E.T.F.'s
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$15.990
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 9, 2018

State of the current market? Prem Watsa’s bear thesis will bear fruit, but that’s 12-18 months out. US economy is on such a roll, it will bowl through a lot of obstacles. Betting on the wall of worry will eventually work out. Serious market correction maybe 18 months out or a little longer.

State of the current market? Prem Watsa’s bear thesis will bear fruit, but that’s 12-18 months out. US economy is on such a roll, it will bowl through a lot of obstacles. Betting on the wall of worry will eventually work out. Serious market correction maybe 18 months out or a little longer.

Unknown
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

August 9, 2018

Still owns a bit. Keyera and PPL are better ideas at this point. No place to get the world price of oil, but IPL still gets paid to move the oil. Growth for oil sands and IPL is limited. Selling was overdone, not a bad price now. Well run. Would be keener if they did more diversification.

oil pipelines

Still owns a bit. Keyera and PPL are better ideas at this point. No place to get the world price of oil, but IPL still gets paid to move the oil. Growth for oil sands and IPL is limited. Selling was overdone, not a bad price now. Well run. Would be keener if they did more diversification.

oil pipelines
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$25.210
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Exchange Income(EIF-T) 

August 9, 2018

Collection of companies, aviation and others, where he thinks there’s huge value. In it for the long haul. It’s a hold at this level, but only because they already own a lot.

Transportation & Environmental Services

Collection of companies, aviation and others, where he thinks there’s huge value. In it for the long haul. It’s a hold at this level, but only because they already own a lot.

Transportation & Environmental Services
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$32.890
Owned Owned
Yes

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WATCH
Air Canada(AC-T) 

August 9, 2018

In a good position. Canada is a diverse country, with immigration from everywhere, and a lot more direct flights globally than before. The new fuel-efficient planes are extremely profitable. Getting more domestic competition. Buy it in low 20s for sure. At $24, a good chance of seeing it in high 20s or low 30s in 12-18 months.

Transportation

In a good position. Canada is a diverse country, with immigration from everywhere, and a lot more direct flights globally than before. The new fuel-efficient planes are extremely profitable. Getting more domestic competition. Buy it in low 20s for sure. At $24, a good chance of seeing it in high 20s or low 30s in 12-18 months.

Transportation
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$23.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 9, 2018

Aeroplan. Don’t panic about your points, they still have value. Aeroplan’s credible because Air Canada’s credible, not because Aimia’s credible. Don’t want the recent kind of publicity if you want people to see you as steady-eddy.

Aeroplan. Don’t panic about your points, they still have value. Aeroplan’s credible because Air Canada’s credible, not because Aimia’s credible. Don’t want the recent kind of publicity if you want people to see you as steady-eddy.

Unknown
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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PAST TOP PICK
Cargojet Inc(CJT-T) 

August 9, 2018

(A Top Pick June 11/2018, Up 5%) Still loves it, worth buying at these levels. Fabulous business. Extremely well managed. Have the biggest clients.

Transportation & Environmental Services

(A Top Pick June 11/2018, Up 5%) Still loves it, worth buying at these levels. Fabulous business. Extremely well managed. Have the biggest clients.

Transportation & Environmental Services
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$70.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Enerplus Corp(ERF-T) 

August 9, 2018

(A Top Pick June 11/2018, Up 1 %) Canadian company, but about 80% of production is in US, so they get world price for oil. The Canadian listing gives them the dividend tax credit and it’s well managed.

oil/gas

(A Top Pick June 11/2018, Up 1 %) Canadian company, but about 80% of production is in US, so they get world price for oil. The Canadian listing gives them the dividend tax credit and it’s well managed.

oil/gas
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$16.610
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Akumin Inc.(AKU.U-T) 

August 9, 2018

 (A Top Pick June 11/2018, Down 4%) Consolidate diagnostic imaging centres in US. A growth company, recent $27M acquisition in Florida which will add 20% to revenue. There are 7500 imaging centres in US, so ripe for consolidation. Will outperform its bigger competitor over time. Thinks it’ll eventually be acquired as a vehicle for AI in digital imaging.

medical services

 (A Top Pick June 11/2018, Down 4%) Consolidate diagnostic imaging centres in US. A growth company, recent $27M acquisition in Florida which will add 20% to revenue. There are 7500 imaging centres in US, so ripe for consolidation. Will outperform its bigger competitor over time. Thinks it’ll eventually be acquired as a vehicle for AI in digital imaging.

medical services
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$3.980
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY

PE ratio this high is a red flag on the surface. He’d be reluctant to own the high PE multiple in a sector where other companies have lower multiples. Own another one, or own a few to diversify. Can’t tell if high PE due to price too high, or a one-time hit to earnings.

property mngmnt/investment

PE ratio this high is a red flag on the surface. He’d be reluctant to own the high PE multiple in a sector where other companies have lower multiples. Own another one, or own a few to diversify. Can’t tell if high PE due to price too high, or a one-time hit to earnings.

property mngmnt/investment
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$15.550
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 9, 2018

Marijuana stocks. Has been investing. Trading them. Bit worried about valuation. Combined market cap of Canadian public companies is $20B vs. a $5B market size. Sense that in October, lack of supply will help price shoot up, but he’s not so sure. Blueprint will be different in each province. Not quite as crazy as the dot.com era, but there will be consolidation. He’d stay with the bigger players like Canopy Growth. Look to the US for much lower multiples.

Marijuana stocks. Has been investing. Trading them. Bit worried about valuation. Combined market cap of Canadian public companies is $20B vs. a $5B market size. Sense that in October, lack of supply will help price shoot up, but he’s not so sure. Blueprint will be different in each province. Not quite as crazy as the dot.com era, but there will be consolidation. He’d stay with the bigger players like Canopy Growth. Look to the US for much lower multiples.

Unknown
Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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