Most Anticipated Earnings: IFC-T, MTLO-X and more Canadian Companies Reporting Earnings this Week (Feb 10-14)

Opinion about PSK-T: Second in line behind TPZ for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Opinion about CRT.UN-T: Likes it technically, pushing higher. Series of higher highs and higher lows. Looks as though it wants to break out. If you think we're heading into a defensive environment (his view), then this will work like a bond. Boring, but gives your capital some protection and spits out dividends. Yield is 5.98%.…

Opinion about IFC-T: Likes the thesis of buying companies that you pay into via your monthly bills. Likes the business. Nice diversifier within the financials. Weather events are always risks, but company's done good job with that. Strong management. About 20% market share of the overall industry.  Quite a bit of M&A. Trying to diversify…

Opinion about FCR.UN-T: Grocery-anchored retail in major cities in Canada. Most in-demand asset class in real estate today. Irreplaceable portfolio of great retail properties. World-class assets. Will have great rent growth, as new builds are too costly. Potential down the road to build apartments or condos on top of current sites, further adding to value…

Opinion about MRG.UN-T: Apartments on both sides of the border. Always trades at wide discount to NAV, a good starting point when you invest. Nice portfolio. Keep holding if you own, but better ideas out there. Nice distribution of 5.5%.

Opinion about SLF-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research SLF reported an underlying EPS of CA$1.79, in line with expectations of CA$1.78. Underlying Return on Equity (ROE) declined slightly to 17.6% from 18.1% in the same quarter last year. The financial leverage ratio remains healthy and in line with historical averages.…

Opinion about IAG-T: (A Top Pick Nov 13/20, Up 33%) Has started buying back shares and paying dividends. Financials should do well as the yield curve steepens. Valuation is not as compelling as before. Middle of the pack. Has moved to US banks and non-financial banks in Canada.

Opinion about CHP.UN-T: Most of the rent collected comes from Loblaw. Likes real estate and Loblaw, but has better ideas in real estate (AP.UN) and owns Loblaw outright. If you own it for the dividend, it's OK. Yield is 5.3%.

Opinion about SRU.UN-T: Main tenant is WMT, which is a blessing and a curse. WMT drives a lot of traffic and attracts a lot of tenants, and it has great credit. But WMT has locked in low rents for a long time, though rents can be raised for the other tenants. Not as much growth…

Opinion about HR.UN-T: Hostile takeover. Diversified REIT that doesn't work very well anymore, as it tends to trade at the multiple of the least-liked sector it owns, and it has a lot of office. If you own, hold on, as today's press release indicated interest from multiple parties (and so a higher bid may come…

Opinion about KMP.UN-T: Very well managed. Company size is in the top 5. Originally focused on the Maritimes, which has seen a lot of population inflows. Expanding into other markets in Ontario such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Likes that they're experienced developers, always improving. Energy-efficient, new construction. Not facing high-rent pressures of others.

Opinion about ERE.UN-T: Doing the right things, but public market is not rewarding it. Selling assets piecemeal until the REIT is liquidated, now about 50%, and distributed income to investors. Hold on, still lots of value. Could buy comfortably here as it's trading below $2.50 per share, but assets arguably are worth $3.

Opinion about MRT.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trading at high discount to NAV. Significant cash retention compared to peers. Diversified cash flow streams. Bid competition to slow acquisition growth.

Opinion about DRR.UN-T: Focused on assets in US. Has never traded above its IPO price. Pursuing strategic alternatives; if you own it, see how those go.

Opinion about FFH-T: Insurance sector's been behaving well over last 3 years. Trimmed about a month ago. Prefers capital markets banks at the moment, but nothing wrong with this name.

Opinion about DFY-T: Focused on efficiencies and growth. Looking to buy Travelers Canada, which would make it the fourth largest in Canada and give them good scale. Trades at 2.4x book value. Time to take some profit.

Opinion about CAR.UN-T: Decent dividend. He actually has 3 REIT positions (including XRE and NWH.UN) because they're value plays right now, all pay dividends, and are a bit overlooked. His view is that markets may be in for more volatility, so you want stocks with lower beta. Buy here at the bottom of its range,…

Opinion about GSY-T: The CEO left suddenly which un-nerved some investors. Last week's numbers were fantastic. It is moving into the next stage and sub-prime lending. Has kept loan losses at a reasonable level. It is adding an auto lending division which is very profitable. He sees growth in the next phase. You could trade…

Opinion about TSU-T: Has done very well since its spin-off years ago. Any insurer can generate earnings. If TSU revives their reserves down the road it will wipe out any earnings they've accumulated and any retained capital in that business. In insurance, Berkshire-Hathaway and Fairfax. Insurance stocks are more expensive, because they are counter-cyclical and…

Opinion about PMZ.UN-T: Why higher implied cap rate than peers? He scratches his head about this too. Likes it here. A bit of concern about shopping malls in general, with their sensitivity to the consumer. From what his team sees, consumers are continuing to spend $$. And it's cold up here, we love our malls.…

Opinion about CGY-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research In Q4 – 2024, CGY reported a revenue growth rate of 3%, with revenues reaching $181M compared to last year’s $175.9M. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved in the quarter to 12.5% from 11.6% last year. Overall, these were acceptable numbers but not that…

Opinion about AI-T: (A Top Pick Mar 11/24, Up 14%) More conservative than TF, and he owns both. Core position. Nice dividend. Not trying to shoot the lights out, just want to collect the income and reinvest.

Opinion about CUP.U-T: Fortis owns 60%. Challenge is that hurricane comes through every once in a while. Good system. Rates of return are higher than you can get in Canada. He owns Fortis

Opinion about FTS-T: Likes the regulated utilities. 

Opinion about CVO-T: Good job overall, well run. Exposed to some of the AI trends. Sizable competition for what they do. He's conservative on whether it can differentiate itself in the coming years. Must show it can get the big, multi-year contracts.

Opinion about SHOP-T: "The NVDA of the North". Different businesses, but in the sense that everyone is flocking to that name. Very few tech names to own in Canada, so when we do find one it tends to get run up. In top 5 by market cap of TSX, and probably 6-7% of the entire…

Opinion about CMG-T: Spiked up on the close last week. Everything looks really good about this for the long term, everything says you should own some. RSI against S&P since 2022 has been really good, up and to the right. Buy some today with a partial position, then add a second component on a further breakout,…

Opinion about MTLO-X: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Revenue grew 57% YOY despite soft results in Q4 2021 relative to expectations. A strong second half of 2022 financial year is expected. Holds $8.5M in cash. In talks with Microsoft for a deal. Continues to trade at relatively low valuation. Results…

Opinion about T-T: (A Top Pick Sep 05/24, Up 7%) Picked it because she was worried about the economy (still is), and would be happy with the dividend. Same reason she owns it today for the 7.4% yield. Slower growth, but very defensive industry. Price competition has lessened. Better financial position than peers.

Opinion about TIXT-T: It has dropped 90% since its IPO. A buyout from Telus has been proposed so you could hold it until the deal closes for a bit more.

Opinion about DND-T: Better opportunities elsewhere in higher-probability stocks. Very competitive business. He doesn't understand the analysts' price target average, and that's what lures people in. (Analysts’ price target is $36.40)

Opinion about TC-T: Sold because its ROIC returns started to get a bit wonky. In fact in last 3 years, ROIC has been negative. Satellite internet access has eaten the lunch of fibre. Hard to form a moat around its domain business. Wait for ROIC to be in excess of 20% for at least 3…

Opinion about ALYA-T: Just went public in June. Plays into same space as CGI. Small minnow in big pond, but very smart. Built business on acquisitions. Interesting, because they're picking out smaller and mid-size, and they have a long runway.

Opinion about IQ-X: New technology officer. Early stages. Wait to see what happens.

Opinion about TIH-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research EPS of $1.52 beat estimates of $1.49; revenue of $1.37B beat estimates of $1.35B. EBITDA of $248M beat estimates by 13%. Sales rose 1.2% but operating income did fall year over year. Tariffs are causing some customer uncertainty, but investors seem to…

Opinion about GRA-T: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Momentum is solid. The fundamentals are improving along with profitability. Debt relative to cash is also improving. Market cap has reached $520M with insiders owning 10%. Not profitable yet although revenue is ramping up. Expensive but revenue growth looks good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…

Opinion about OGI-T: (A Top Pick Jan 14/21, Up 35.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with OGI has triggered its stop at $3.00. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain…

Opinion about WCN-T: A long-term hold for him. One of the best performers in the US, but has been stagnant of late due to the higher PE and it is a defensive. Now, the market wants growth. Be patient. Are compounding cash flow at double digits. Think long term. 

Opinion about WFG-T: (A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Down 23%) (All the past picks today were from October, when he thought we were late cycle. His view is that we've started a new cycle, so tech and consumer discretionary risk-on names should do better.)Usually a really nice trade if you buy at Halloween, sell at…

Opinion about ADN-T: Unique company in Canada that gives investors a way to own an uncorrelated infrastructure-type asset. No sawmills, just a pure play on timber land. Many institutions and pension funds would have a small part of their portfolio in it. Pays a dividend.

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Opinion about CAE-T: One of only 2 names they own that doesn't have a dividend, so they have to be extra-convicted on the stock price. Its 2 sectors should work in investors' favour over the long run. Flight simulators for pilots amidst a pilot shortage. Defense side has been suffering, but PM Carney has announced…

Opinion about MTL-T: Grown by acquisition quite steadily over the years. Very good company and it won't hurt you, but he owns TFII instead.

Opinion about IFP-T: The lumber industry in Canada has been in the line of sight for tariffs for the past decade. Housing prices have depressed the price of lumber for the past 2 to 3 years. One he likes in this sector is Doman Building Materials which is more of a processor of lumber. It…

Opinion about WEF-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research WEF has rallied with interest rates, which help the sector, but is still down 26% for the year and 37% over 52 weeks. Note the dividend was cancelled in November 2023 and none is paid currently. This week WEF announced it would…

Opinion about MG-T: Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.If you own it, don't need the cash, and have…

Opinion about AC-T: He does not really take an interest in airlines. There may be an opportunity now for Air Canada with all the rhetoric around the strike. It's been around for some time. Settlement should not be a huge number for cost increases. It is looking to expand internationally. You could buy when the…

Opinion about IPCO-T: Also a Lundin Group company. Consistent in buying back shares. Stock's substantially undervalued. Heavy oil producer. Potential beneficiary of de-bottlenecking Keystone. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $20.27)

Opinion about CVE-T: Underwater 30%. Hold on or sell? Likes it. Hold, or buy more here. Making lots of $$. Trades ~13-14x PE. Huge share buyback program, which they can only do if making money and puts a floor under the stock.You could look to sell a covered call on this to try to generate…

Opinion about BIR-T: He lkes the size of the company but it has leverage issues. Could be a beneficiary of consolidation in the U.S. He wants to see long term past success of management. 

Opinion about PD-T: (A Top Pick May 23/24, Down 37%) He sold this around $90. It's tied to the fall in oil prices as drilling activity slides. Shares are at a 28% free cash flow yield, but he isn't confident about that figure. Revisit this in maybe 6 months after the market absorbs OPEC oversupply.

Opinion about KEY-T: LNG projects are growing and it will be one of the companies that benefits from the increased volume of natural gas. It made a big acquisition and has stable cash flow as a mid-stream company. Has a great future with another decade of growth.

Opinion about PSD-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Market cap is $180M, after a 61% gain this year so far. No analyst coverage. Dividend 1.96% with a 17% bump in April and semi-regular special dividends. Price/earnings 13X. No debt and $14M cash. Good cash flow. A big jump in last…

Opinion about ENB-T: Technical analysts love to give fancy names to chart patterns 😉  The 5-year for this name is showing a cup and handle -- with that rounded bottom, perhaps a little pullback, and then a breakout and consolidation. Also a nice swing trade. Now testing the breakout point, and successfully so. Looks good.

Opinion about TRP-T: (A Top Pick Sep 05/24, Up 30%) Not adding now because it's run up so much. Likes that its growth is now from smaller projects that are more likely to go through with minimal regulatory issues. Still a forever hold.

Opinion about SVM-T: Part of syndicate that brought company to markets. Financials in China a little opaque, but company has been generous to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Would recommend buying. 

Opinion about CCE-X: This company has been around for 20 years on the Venture exchange. It has no revenues and has a couple of properties, one in Quebec and the other in BC. I questions how many investors have made money on this. He has no interest in this one.

Opinion about ABX-T: Problems in Mali, and company's short-term performance depends on that outcome. High operating costs in Nevada goldfields. Has decided to be a mining company rather than a gold mining company, which an increasing amount of revenue coming from copper. Much growth will come from Pakistan project, which he likes but the market…

Opinion about K-T: He prefers Kinross because it has a little more growth but both are excellent. As to the price of gold he thinks it holds with no big moves higher or lower.

Opinion about RUS-T: Massively expanded footprint in US, so tariffs don't affect them as much. Benefits from infrastructure builds, both in Canada and US. Need material inputs to build all these data centres, energy infrastructure, and so on. Fantastic management. Amazing capital allocation. Very solid balance sheet, buying back stock. Margins went up last quarter,…

Opinion about NOA-T: A cheap play in the space. See his Top Picks.

Opinion about SOLG-T: Does not own shares, but thinks deposits are very good. Would recommend waiting to see if assets are able to produce economically. Also, hard area to produce with geopolitical risk. Regional politics also troublesome. 

Opinion about TMQ-N: Be cautious of very long timelines. Extremely high-grade copper deposit. Political winds are against it, as US government denied funding for access roads. First Nations are solidly in favour of the project. Own it for the extremely high potential value.

Opinion about LIO-X: Fiji is an interesting place. They have raised $85 Million last year when it was tough. If they get this thing going it will build up confidence. They are putting a relatively small scale gold mine into production while doing exploration. They should eventually get bought out.

Opinion about GFG-X: Some of the people behind Gold Standard Ventures, are behind this one as well. If you follow success in this industry, you will do relatively well. They raised a lot of money for Gold Standard Ventures and it has done well. It is probably in the 8th-9th inning before it gets bought…

Opinion about AEM-T: Who knows where gold is going? He avoids commodity stocks, though. AEM is one of the best-run commodity companies. If you are positive gold, then buy this.

Opinion about DPM-T: Dundee is nowhere as large as Barrick, Franco Nevada or Agnico Eagle, which comprise a third of the Canadian materials sector, but it has outperformed it so far in 2024. Dundee shares have rallied 8.5% in this time period while Barrick is down over 16%. Also, Dundee holds more potential upside. Consensus…

Opinion about CGX-T: It was a darling, a great business years ago that generated tons of free cash flow. He once owned it. Then, it was supposed to be bought, but bad luck saw Covid hit and the deal died. Great management and still a good business that generates cash, but times have changed--there are…

Opinion about QSR-T: She's nervous about the consumer, particularly in Canada. Highly indebted consumer is being more cautious on discretionary spending. If it were just Tim's, she'd be OK with it because she likes the trade-down economics. Burger King is still closing stores, lots of competition and margin pressure.

Opinion about BPF.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research BPF.UN is a small company, and may not be a 'blue chip' large company such as FTS. However, it just raised its distribution, is cheap, pays a 6.57% yield and has good management. We would be OK owning it for a small…

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about CTC-T: Traditional bricks and mortar business that will face competition from eCommerce. Undifferentiated shopping experience that is not enjoyable. Discretionary product offering makes it difficult to retain customers. Would not recommend investing at this time. Housing slowdown in Canada will also be hard on the business. 

Opinion about CTC.A-T: Kind of an up-and-down stock over its history. Resistance about a year ago, and looks to be attempting to bounce off that. Now you have to look for the next level of overhead resistance, which may be ~$195. Moves right now show it's very probably a near-term trade. How high and how…

Opinion about MTY-T: Used to be a good "compounder" (~20% annually). However, growth has slowed to around 10%. Is watching, but not investing at this time. 

Opinion about VCM-T: It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Opinion about Y-T: (A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their…

Opinion about TVA.B-T: A cash cow, owning many TV channels and make movies. But shares are down, because it's a small cap and there's pressure on TV ad revenues. Still cheap. Quebecor owns 70% and could easily privatize it around $5-6, which he thinks will happen one day. Generates a lot of cash. For patient…

Opinion about MBX-T: Very positive on the stock price, the company, and the partnerships they're announcing. Technicals indicate the stock may head toward 90 cents, but he says higher. Just won a contract from the Ontario government. Covid testing isn't going away. Sales should triple in the next 12 months.