Earning Reports to Watch (Feb 04-08)

Opinion about ADW.A-T: Stores may or may not be impacted by Ontario government rolling out more retail locations. The Pellers stepped down from the board, possibly planning a bid to privatize the company but he's not really sure.

Opinion about IDG-T: Has had a huge run and is not sure he would be courageous enough to get onboard at this point. Management has done a remarkable job of building this. He would look for a little lower entry point.

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about BPF.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Debt becoming a concern. Delivery and take-out only sources of sales. Special dividend paid this quarter. Dividend reinstated at a lower rate.

Opinion about GOOS-T: Good proxy for health of consumers in Canada. Luxury item that is discretionary. Hard to excited about this style of business. Not seeing major spending from average population. Better options for investors out there. 

Opinion about SAP-T: A month ago, SAP reported its full-year earnings, and EPS of €2.68 beat expectations, but was down from €3.24 in FY 2023. Revenues of €34.2b were 9.5% higher from FY 2023. The main driver was the cloud. In 2024, its cloud backlog leapt 43% year-over-year to €63.3 billion while cloud revenues jumped…

Opinion about RAY.A-T: Is fairly illiquid, but profitable and pays a 6.6% dividend. Price targets are high, so there's a runway ahead. But two-thirds of the business is concentrated in Canada, and a big risk is if song royalties rise. It's profitable though. He's watching it.

Opinion about Y-T: (A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their…

Opinion about FTG-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research FTG is a small ($230M market cap) global supplier of aerospace and defense electronic products and subsystems. It operates through 'FTG Circuits' (high-tech circuit boards for aviation, defense, and high-tech customers), and 'FTG Aerospace' (designs and manufactures illuminated cockpit products and electronic…

Opinion about FTT-T: Repeatedly compares this to TIH, and TIH always comes out on top in terms of ROIC and dividend growth.

Opinion about WJA-T: It’s under review by the government whether the takeover will take place. You’re dealing with regulatory uncertainty right now. If you bought it before the takeover, unless you’re in tune with what will happen, he wouldn’t own the stock any longer. The price is fair.

Opinion about ATS-T: (A Top Pick Feb 27/23, Down 28%)Disappointing growth in EV equipment. Rolled over and he got stopped out. Wasn't making higher highs and higher lows, no longer in an uptrend. In your portfolio, you have to quickly carve out the ones that aren't working before they hurt you.

Opinion about BIP.UN-T: BIP.UN vs. BN vs. BAM The closer you are to the top of the house in the Brookfield framework, the closer you are to the CEO and the Board, and the incentive structures tend to favour them. Doesn't have the great yield, but has upside. BAM offers you the yield and, broadly…

Opinion about TIH-T: Reasonably well-tied to commercial construction. Fantastic job dealing with uncertainties. Likes the business and management team. A bit too big for him, as it's about to exit "SmallCapLand". If you own, decent time to add.

Opinion about BBU.UN-T: A way to participate in Brookfield's excellent track record of private-equity investments. Owns companies like the largest residential mortgage insurer in Canada, and one producing low-voltage automotive batteries globally. Big discount of ~30% to NAV. Yield is 1%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.46)

Opinion about HRX-T: Very strong Canadian company that doesn't get enough attention from the markets. Last quarter starting to prove business prospects. Landing gear in very high demand within airline sector. Trading at discount to other names in the sector. Very high barriers to entry within the business. Margins continue to expand - will be…

Opinion about FCC-X: Cobalt is attractive but this is not a cheap producer, because they're in Canada and not Russia or Congo.

Opinion about UFS-T: This has been quite erratic and trading in quite a wide range. He’s been seeing contraction in breadth in forest companies, so is a little cautious on this area. If he had to focus in one space, it would be on lumber which looks attractive. You can use a basket of them…

Opinion about CFP-T: Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings…

Opinion about CFX-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research CFX has been on a steady downtrend. Revenue has been in decline over the last two years, free cash flow has gone negative and it has been operating at a net loss since 2019. Debt has been increasing as well and net…

Opinion about NTR-T: World's largest crop-nutrient business. Upstream production is vertically integrated with downstream retail. Gamechanger for him is that commodity price has bottomed for potash, nitrogen, and phosphate. Cash crop commodity prices are also slowly improving. Management changes. Operational changes to improve profitability. Trading at 1.1x book. Good luck tariffing potash, as the US produces…

Opinion about IFP-T: It has a higher level of production in the U.S. so would be less affected by tariffs than other Canadian lumber companies. The U.S. needs Canadian lumber and one quarter of production from B.C. goes to the U.S., -  but lumber is still needed for B.C.

Opinion about RUS-T: It is in the metal fabrication business. They just raised their dividend this year and have dramatically changed their balance sheet for the better, so it is in much better shape than in past cycles. They also have a U.S. operation and have done a great job managing their working capital. Tariffs…

Opinion about XAU-T: (A Top Pick May 29/09. Up 6.6%.) Very intelligently run company. The game plan is to generate ideas/geologic targets and bring a major company in to do the hard, expensive work. Made a discovery of a very nice deposit in Long Canyon Nevada and hold 49% with Frontier being a joint partner.

Opinion about GPS-T: Uses their GPS system to figure out where trains are, and to more accurately schedule trains and service vehicles for people working on the rails. Reported on Aug 14 and earnings were down 10%. That was against a 32% increase in sales. In the coming quarter, earnings are expected to be down…

Opinion about VCM-T: It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Opinion about PTQ-X: (A Top Pick May 29/20, Up 55%) Oxygen delivery. Recurring revenue model. Very strong outlook.

Opinion about SQD-X: They make life easier for large diagnostic test companies. It automates the testing process. They did a final financing. They've been working on this technology for 5 years.

Opinion about UNC-T: Making changes to be able to invest more in foreign stocks. Wait to see how they do.

Opinion about MIC-T: Share price on the path to recovery. Scores well on valuation, but held back by price momentum. Trades cheaply. Solid yield. Beat most recent quarter. Housing markets have been incredibly resilient. Could see himself as a buyer as they rotate into financials.

Opinion about IFC-T: (A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 34%) Executing so well. High catastrophic losses, but ROE still at 16.5%. Underwriting beat. Strong Q4. Canadian and US commercial beat. Firing on all cylinders, resilient in this environment. Trading ~17.5x 2026, growing ~16%. Not a bad buy, but don't chase -- can probably get at…

Opinion about GS-T: Owned it a few years ago and cut his losses. Now, cut your losses. This business is struggling as an asset manager, specifically to retain and attract new clients. Also, their key managers, including the CEO, have been leaving. They won't generate much in performance fees, which has been an attraction for…

Opinion about BPY.UN-T: Preferred shares. He does invest in some selective preferred shares for some clients with balanced mandates. Unique because BPY.UN used to be a separate, publicly traded company, so you got full transparency. But then Brookfield privatized it, so you don't get the same transparency. But Brookfield has always been a fairly good…

Opinion about GWO-T: Growing very decisively. Done extremely well. A good way to get exposure to this is via POW.

Opinion about CIX-T: (A Top Pick Sep 11/24, Up 81%) Taken out at $32.

Opinion about IGM-T: Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly With $144 billion in assets under management, we reiterate IGM as a TOP PICK.  Cash reserves are growing while shares are bought back.  It trades at 11x earnings, under 2x book and supports a respectable 12% ROE.  The robust dividend is backed by a payout ratio under…

Opinion about SU-T: He likes the big integrated names, but doesn't own any oil producers now. His team deemed that group as having first-derivative vulnerability to tariffs on volumes and profitability. Premium brand in the space. He's waiting out some of the volatility on the price of oil before getting back in. Nice dividend.

Opinion about HE-T: Generally not a fan of the Chinese inter-listed companies. He has a Short position in this one. There are better places to be.

Opinion about MTL-T: Grown by acquisition quite steadily over the years. Very good company and it won't hurt you, but he owns TFII instead.

Opinion about TVK-T: Has followed it a long time and should have bought it. They compound their capital extremely well. Management executes. A great business.

Opinion about MEG-T: Very defendable business in current oil price environment. Massive resource depth. US shale is in its twilight, which means they'll eventually have to come to Canada. Very healthy FCF yield. Buying back lots of stock. At least 35 years of stay-flat inventory. Superbly high-quality asset. Good balance sheet. Sold off on tariff concerns.…

Opinion about ARX-T: Attachie, a growth project, has superb economics. They have about 4 or 5 more buried in their portfolio. Exposure to condensates, but it's really a gas play. Outlook for Canadian nat gas is meaningfully improving as LNG Canada comes on. (This is as long as producers show discipline and don't flood the…

Opinion about CCO-T: Think of it as a core position in a Canadian context. Uranium has really come into its own. Outside of speculative companies, is the best low-cost producer. Nuclear servicing via Westinghouse purchase. Not something you need to jump into with both feet today.

Opinion about JE-T: They sell energy contracts. They have under gone several management changes over the years. He is not a great fan of this business model.

Opinion about BEP.UN-T: Brookfield is a very good manger and BEP contracts are with Microsoft. BEP is not only wind and solar power, but also hydro. They grow their dividend 5% per year. He is averaging down.

Opinion about VNR-T: A lot of success is tied to Gaz Metro in Québec, but they also have some wind farms that have recently come online in the last year or 2, and giving good returns to the company. Recent earnings were solid and they raised the dividend by 3.7%, and plan to raise it…

Opinion about BCE-T: Cashflow does not cover dividend, and that's why there's talk of cutting it. Personally, he feels they'll never cut it, since most people who own it are looking for dividends. Better opportunities elsewhere.