Earning Reports to Watch (Feb 04-08)

Opinion about ADW.A-T: Stores may or may not be impacted by Ontario government rolling out more retail locations. The Pellers stepped down from the board, possibly planning a bid to privatize the company but he's not really sure.

Opinion about IDG-T: Has had a huge run and is not sure he would be courageous enough to get onboard at this point. Management has done a remarkable job of building this. He would look for a little lower entry point.

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about BPF.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research BPF.UN is a small company, and may not be a 'blue chip' large company such as FTS. However, it just raised its distribution, is cheap, pays a 6.57% yield and has good management. We would be OK owning it for a small…

Opinion about GOOS-T: Good proxy for health of consumers in Canada. Luxury item that is discretionary. Hard to excited about this style of business. Not seeing major spending from average population. Better options for investors out there. 

Opinion about SAP-T: (A Top Pick Feb 05/25, Up 15%) (Note the short timeframe.)  In Canada, it's retail. But south of the border it's more food services and is #3, and the US is dragging down its profitability. If it can return to half of former levels in US, it will be a very cheap…

Opinion about RAY.A-T: Is fairly illiquid, but profitable and pays a 6.6% dividend. Price targets are high, so there's a runway ahead. But two-thirds of the business is concentrated in Canada, and a big risk is if song royalties rise. It's profitable though. He's watching it.

Opinion about Y-T: (A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their…

Opinion about FTG-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research FTG is a small ($230M market cap) global supplier of aerospace and defense electronic products and subsystems. It operates through 'FTG Circuits' (high-tech circuit boards for aviation, defense, and high-tech customers), and 'FTG Aerospace' (designs and manufactures illuminated cockpit products and electronic…

Opinion about FTT-T: (A Top Pick Apr 12/24, Up 22%) Correlated with copper, and it set up nicely with where we were in the business cycle. Big breakout over the last 2 months. Good-looking chart with higher highs and lows. Sees further upside into August.

Opinion about WJA-T: It’s under review by the government whether the takeover will take place. You’re dealing with regulatory uncertainty right now. If you bought it before the takeover, unless you’re in tune with what will happen, he wouldn’t own the stock any longer. The price is fair.

Opinion about ATS-T: Upward trend from April selloff, showing strong support from the technical side. Fiscal 2025 EPS was slightly down, but forecast to rebound. Price target is 10% upside from here. Still below 52-week high. Analysts remain confident in company's leadership despite CEO stepping down, and she'll be monitoring closely.

Opinion about BIP.UN-T: There has been a pullback so this is good entry point. Business is good and the last quarter beat expectations. It is constantly putting money to work. The stock yields 5.5%. It is a steady compounder and she sees good upside potential.        Buy 8  Hold 3  Sell 0 (Analysts’…

Opinion about TIH-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research EPS of $1.52 beat estimates of $1.49; revenue of $1.37B beat estimates of $1.35B. EBITDA of $248M beat estimates by 13%. Sales rose 1.2% but operating income did fall year over year. Tariffs are causing some customer uncertainty, but investors seem to…

Opinion about BBU.UN-T: Private equity arm of Brookfield. Projects all across the world. Could do quite well going forward.

Opinion about HRX-T: Very strong Canadian company that doesn't get enough attention from the markets. Last quarter starting to prove business prospects. Landing gear in very high demand within airline sector. Trading at discount to other names in the sector. Very high barriers to entry within the business. Margins continue to expand - will be…

Opinion about FCC-X: Cobalt is attractive but this is not a cheap producer, because they're in Canada and not Russia or Congo.

Opinion about UFS-T: This has been quite erratic and trading in quite a wide range. He’s been seeing contraction in breadth in forest companies, so is a little cautious on this area. If he had to focus in one space, it would be on lumber which looks attractive. You can use a basket of them…

Opinion about CFP-T: Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. WFG has done the best in holding its share price.IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings…

Opinion about CFX-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research CFX has been on a steady downtrend. Revenue has been in decline over the last two years, free cash flow has gone negative and it has been operating at a net loss since 2019. Debt has been increasing as well and net…

Opinion about NTR-T: Lots of geopolitical things happening. When stock shot up from Russian invasion, sold some but still retains a 1/2-2/3 position. Likes it long term. BHP is bringing on Jansen, but it's behind (and second phase may be mothballed). Good diversifier. Nice yield.For new clients, buying a half position. Ideally, want to buy…

Opinion about IFP-T: The lumber industry in Canada has been in the line of sight for tariffs for the past decade. Housing prices have depressed the price of lumber for the past 2 to 3 years. One he likes in this sector is Doman Building Materials which is more of a processor of lumber. It…

Opinion about RUS-T: Massively expanded footprint in US, so tariffs don't affect them as much. Benefits from infrastructure builds, both in Canada and US. Need material inputs to build all these data centres, energy infrastructure, and so on. Fantastic management. Amazing capital allocation. Very solid balance sheet, buying back stock. Margins went up last quarter,…

Opinion about XAU-T: He rarely talks about Gold. He thinks it is a strong sector bet. It is been out of favor for so long that mines have closed, productions have closed, mergers and acquisitions happened. Central Banks are now massive buyers of Gold. they want to get out of the US dollar. The Fed…

Opinion about GPS-T: Uses their GPS system to figure out where trains are, and to more accurately schedule trains and service vehicles for people working on the rails. Reported on Aug 14 and earnings were down 10%. That was against a 32% increase in sales. In the coming quarter, earnings are expected to be down…

Opinion about VCM-T: It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Opinion about PTQ-X: (A Top Pick May 29/20, Up 55%) Oxygen delivery. Recurring revenue model. Very strong outlook.

Opinion about SQD-X: They make life easier for large diagnostic test companies. It automates the testing process. They did a final financing. They've been working on this technology for 5 years.

Opinion about UNC-T: Making changes to be able to invest more in foreign stocks. Wait to see how they do.

Opinion about MIC-T: Share price on the path to recovery. Scores well on valuation, but held back by price momentum. Trades cheaply. Solid yield. Beat most recent quarter. Housing markets have been incredibly resilient. Could see himself as a buyer as they rotate into financials.

Opinion about IFC-T: Impressive management. The entire space is subject to the unpredictability of catastrophic losses. But this company has done great, able to manage all the risks. Post-pandemic inflationary environment helped (replacement costs went up, so premiums did too). Recent results were fine, but stock dropped. Could have just exhausted itself for now. May have…

Opinion about GS-T: Owned it a few years ago and cut his losses. Now, cut your losses. This business is struggling as an asset manager, specifically to retain and attract new clients. Also, their key managers, including the CEO, have been leaving. They won't generate much in performance fees, which has been an attraction for…

Opinion about BPY.UN-T: Preferred shares. He does invest in some selective preferred shares for some clients with balanced mandates. Unique because BPY.UN used to be a separate, publicly traded company, so you got full transparency. But then Brookfield privatized it, so you don't get the same transparency. But Brookfield has always been a fairly good…

Opinion about GWO-T: (A Top Pick Aug 14/24, Up 31%) Are totally different from MFC and SLF which have businesses in China and India. GWO instead has business in Europe where they can buy attractive companies. Is an income stock. Trades at only 11x PE, with strong growth. A core holding. Pays a dividend around…

Opinion about CIX-T: (A Top Pick Sep 11/24, Up 81%) Taken out at $32.

Opinion about IGM-T: Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly With $144 billion in assets under management, we reiterate IGM as a TOP PICK.  Cash reserves are growing while shares are bought back.  It trades at 11x earnings, under 2x book and supports a respectable 12% ROE.  The robust dividend is backed by a payout ratio under…

Opinion about SU-T: A core Canadian energy name, along with CNQ. Still, energy space has been very tough. Prices have been low, OPEC producing more than expected. Regulatory environment in Canada is challenged, as is the macro global economy. 

Opinion about HE-T: Generally not a fan of the Chinese inter-listed companies. He has a Short position in this one. There are better places to be.

Opinion about MTL-T: Grown by acquisition quite steadily over the years. Very good company and it won't hurt you, but he owns TFII instead.

Opinion about TVK-T: It has done a phenomenal job of growing by acquisition. Its big advantage is it has really good costs to buy steel so steel company acquisitions are immediately accretive to earnings. The last quarter was a bit weaker than expected and there are not big volumes so it gets pushed around. There…

Opinion about MEG-T: Thoughts on the offer? Both SCR and MEG held in taxable account. He's not an M&A guy. If you want a really good answer, ask somebody else 😉  A board will often reject something like this because they think it should be higher. And maybe a competitor will come along with a…

Opinion about ARX-T: (A Top Pick Jun 24/25, Down 10%) (Note the short timeframe.)  He even bought a bit more. Hasn't broken key support levels; so as long as it doesn't, he's OK. Nat gas demand for AI is huge. There's also cloud computing, population growth, and general energy usage. Lots of reasons that nat…

Opinion about CCO-T: For the longest time, no one wanted to talk about this one. All of a sudden people have realized that nuclear is safe, clean, and abundant. Has become in vogue. When uranium is sold to power utilities, those contracts are done for 5-10 years at a time. So he's not sure the…

Opinion about JE-T: They sell energy contracts. They have under gone several management changes over the years. He is not a great fan of this business model.

Opinion about BEP.UN-T: The chart for AQN tells the story for the sector.Seeing signs of improvement. Both AQN and NPI have moved above 200-day (40-week) moving average, a positive. Especially so because a lot more quant funds are moving $$ in the markets, and one of the triggers they look at is whether or not…

Opinion about VNR-T: A lot of success is tied to Gaz Metro in Québec, but they also have some wind farms that have recently come online in the last year or 2, and giving good returns to the company. Recent earnings were solid and they raised the dividend by 3.7%, and plan to raise it…

Opinion about BCE-T: Telcos in NA are a mixed bag right now. He'd be a seller. Other things outside of telecom to do with your money.