Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF-N)

Just upgraded on Wall Street. Estimated $1.2 billion free cash flow this year. Debt-to-EBITDA is just below 1, so they have little debt to buy. Input costs have decreased while car production rises (good for CLF). Expects them to buy back a ton of shares.

With so few steel companies, Nucor and Cleveland Cliffs enjoy scarcity value with enough business to keep pricing up, though Nucor has a much better balance sheet. It reports Monday.

They announced share buybacks a while ago, but the money still isn't flowing here.

Iron ore space is a rollercoaster ride, high beta, depends on China. Volatile space, due to false start in China. He's been trimming names over past months. Nothing wrong with the operation, but dividend not attractive enough to provide protection in an economic slowdown.

Many felt that the cycle was over and prices would collapse, but he feels this is a little downturn. Demand will bounce back because of infrastructure spending to come next and demand for EVs and batteries. This is where the cycle is heading for base metals.

Consolidating after reaching new highs. Head and shoulders pattern. Good entry point now, with limited upside to $19. Need to sell around $13.60.

Has risen to be the #2 steelmaker. Revenues have jumped from $2 billion in 2019 to $23 billion in 2022. Trades at only 6x trailing earnings. However, the street predicts EPS to fall from $5.35 in 2021 to $2.04 this year. His take: if we avoid recession, shares will soar, which makes this a trade.