Consumer stocks tend to see a bump up at this time of year through to May. We are still in a period of seasonal strength, which begins around the Oct/Nov timeframe. There was a bottom in December, and it has now traded higher. Trending above its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Support seems quite firm at the 20 day. A bit of caution, he sees the short and intermediate term trending positive, but the 200 day is still pointing lower. This indicates longer-term investors are selling every time it bumps up to that level, whereas intermediate or nimble players are playing the swings. Given your time horizon, it might be a bit toppy here. Chart shows a bearish candlestick, and the next level of support would be around $80, which would be the better time to pick it up.

Global and operates in over 150 countries. Skincare is where they are making their money. They are also in fragrance through licensed agreements. Shares have done tremendously well, and a big part of that has been their ability to gain traction in China. Thinks a lot of the future growth in China is already priced in. A catalyst that could add share price appreciation will be their ability to execute on their e-commerce strategy. E-commerce is about 8% of their overall revenue, and if they are able to grow that it will help their income. At 29X PE he wouldn’t be in a rush to Buy this. A very low dividend of about 1.25%.

There must have been something fundamental that changed in mid-August.  We are running up against some resistance at $84.  He would be concerned again around $93.  We have a nice 3 year trend where it bounced nicely off support from an uptrend line through lows. 

His screens show a 7%+ top line growth, bottom line growth even faster. Over the next 3 years he would expect at least 100 basis points of margin expansion per annum. This gives him a top line growth with an accelerating bottom line growth. Where he really sees leverage is on the travel side. More and more Chinese, for example, are traveling abroad. Travel retail accounts for 12% of sales, but he estimates it accounts for up to 25% of their profits. Lots of room for margin improvement. Yield of 1.15%.

Quite an amazing little company.  Biggest market in face and skin creams.  Prestige beauty market is growing and these guys are growing faster.  Owner is 75 years old and there is potential for a takeout but that is not why he buys it.  Diversity of brands and countries.