Tahoe Resources (THO-T)

Sold it 7 years ago. He's not a silver/gold fan, so he won't rebuy it. It could recover partially from its decline. But he's not up on Guatemala now where Tahoe has a flagship silver mine that's currently shut down. There is lots of value here, if they can get it going. This is probably dead money.

This is a name he has avoided due to the uncertainty of their Guatemala silver mine investment. Social license is a big issue for some of these countries. Half of their net asset value is in this country. He worries about the potential for public company conflict with the various levels of government there.

Half of this company is a Guatemalan mine that went through social unrest and a shutdown. People want to see how this starts again. He used to own it but got out when it got a little pricier. It took a 50% correction. You will see a slow revaluation.

He won’t trade it. When rates are rising, gold will be under pressure. It is cheap on a book value basis but you have a very volatile stock with poor price momentum. He would want to see a bottom.

This is the Guatemalan end of the business of precious metals. They’ve got activists all around creating the usual problems. He believes the courts have permitted them to go forward. Expects it will get sorted out. Hold on or buy.

Had owned this because the Escobal project was one of the best silver deposit out there. The problem has always been Guatemala, which is why he sold his holdings. In July they had a court decision that suspended the mine. They have to deal with the suspension as well as a legal blockade, and in the interim, they have had to readjust their guidance, amend their credit facility, as well as suspend all dividend payments. As a single asset company, they get very highly discounted. There is still a lot of risk embedded in the stock.

(Top Pick Dec 20/16, Down 44%) He thought he was picking it up near the bottom. It is geopolitical issues. It is a difficult environment there now and he exited but may take another look at it.

Had a court injunction to shut down their big silver mine in Guatemala, which is about half their NAV, but recently won a decision to bring it back on. They are fighting locals who now have road blocks up, so timing is hard to tell how aggressive they want to get to move the protesters. He got out because he saw better value in other places. He would revisit this once there is more clarity.

It has been hampered by political issues. Most speculators would be well advised to wait to see more political certainty. Speculators could buy it in anticipation of resolution.

The return on capital has held in there at 10%. They put a lot of capital to work. The valuation looks good. He would be very interested in looking into this more.

This is silver. Higher rates, in the US in particular, are probably a negative for silver and gold. Had owned this in the past but sold it near $20. Doesn’t like the group.

Technicals are not looking good. There are some encouraging signs in that it has recently formed a trading range, and very briefly broke above it. Gold/Silver stocks do very well from the middle of July through to October. Wait for this to get down to the bottom of its trading range, and look for technical signs that it is starting to outperform.

(A Top Pick May 31/16. Down 31%.) Feels management missed on some targets and expectations. It’s a top tier management team and board that is well regarded.

This has been interesting and a bit disappointing. Historically this has done well from January to approximately the middle of May of each year, but this year not so much. Seasonality works most of the time, but not all the time. What you need to do with a seasonal trade is to wait until technicals show that the stocks have shown signs of bottoming and are starting to show signs of outperformance relative to the market.