Savanna Energy Services (SVY-T)

(A Top Pick Jan 2/15. Up 66.03%.) *SHORT* Not as much ability to participate in the deep drilling market.

(A Top Pick Jan 2/15. Up 66.61%.) *SHORT*. A decent company, but they just don’t have quite the same size of balance sheet and are also less contracted than some of their peers. They have good deep drilling rigs which is attractive.

Does not have the highest quality rigs and they are not located in the best possible places. There is still a business there so if the market rebounds this one should bounce back. But he prefers others in the same industry.

SHORT. The biggest problem is the quality and type of rigs it has. Very few long-term contracts to the rigs. Shallow rigs. Oil/gas drilling in Western Canada is largely deeper and more complex. They only have 2 of the triple type rigs, which are the most popular. Their fleet is just not purpose ready and the market is drying up. In a downward market, these are the first guys to get axed.

On his watch list. Has noticed that insiders are buying like crazy. It does have a big debt load, which is a major problem, and which continues to scare him. This is one that he has been kicking the tires more closely on. The insider buyers generally know more than an outsider. He will continue to watch.

He is looking for someone to know where the bottom is in oil. Buying this one depends on oil prices. These oil service stocks will be one of the first to move. Perhaps stick your toe in the bottom here and get a partial position.

Had liked the energy services sector, but it is coming off and coming off hard. His model price is $15.07, 106% upside, but it is coming down to a level of $7.07, and if it had a negative transit, it is going to go all the way back to $6.

Doesn’t follow this one super close. There is so much activity in the North American energy sector that probably a rising tide is going to lift all boats. He likes a number of names in this sector. 4.5% dividend yield.

Has owned in the past. Trimmed recently because of expected sell-off which has happened. Trading at a multiple of businesses with a better business model. Prefers those others.

Energy service sector is going through a boom and this one has been going through a rework. Had a lot of older rigs that were really great for dry gas and shallower gas drilling. Have also been moving down to Australia. Well-run company and the balance sheet is in pretty good shape. They’ve all had a pretty big move. Would prefer CanElson (CDI-T) which has a strong, strong balance sheet, good sustainable dividend and good management team. Very cyclical business, so keep a very, very tight eye on the long-term pricing environment.

Bought some recently a week or two ago as a laggard. Australian operations will not benefit from rising Canadian Nat Gas prices. But he sees a pretty good catch up trade of 3%. Not a long term hold for him.

Services companies are amongst the cheapest. 4.5% dividend. Just moved into Australia. Going to 14 rigs by end of next year. Hard book value is about $10.

He has no energy services except for Shaw Core. He looks for long term dividend outlook that extends beyond 5 years and cannot find a company in that sector. But they are due for some pretty good results in that sector over the next couple of years. Be ready for volatility.

Oil and gas service company. Has had a nice little run from the bottom. The big growth factor in this company is Australia. Have 11 rigs there and probably growing to 15. Margins will be pretty good. Pays a dividend.

On his Stock Watch list and has been for a couple of years. Would look for a pullback before buying. There are probably a lot of other stocks that are more worthwhile.