A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Pipelines. Reduced his holdings, but hasn’t moved out of all of his pipes. He thinks this is a good strategy. Take profits when you can.

Commodities. The commodity cycles in Canada are always a shock. They are brutal at the beginning and have a life to them. Often they take 3-5 months to start to show a bottom. We are already 3-4 months into this thing, so it could be in the next quarter or so before we start to see where a bottom is.

Markets. The numbers are actually looking pretty good. If you go back in history when the market got really rapped, there were some basic problems in the system. There aren’t any at the moment. We are doing very well in North America. Even though he loves his oil stocks, he knows that low oil prices are good for both the Canadian and US economies. Thinks there is a good deal of Canadian money going into the US. Their market looks a lot healthier than ours. In the consumer areas of discretionary and staples and looking at some of the multiples, it is a terrible place to do business. Margins are razor thin and there is a lot of competition. Also the yields aren’t anything to write home about.

Energy. We have to look at the oil price, not so much as an economic situation, but that the price didn’t really collapse until the Saudis came in and cut. There is a big political content here. When that happens, the market reacts. Drilling permits in the US have dropped 40% in November.

Shale oil has huge decline rates, with 75% in the 1^st year. You get in there, get a lot of oil, and then basically have to go next door and drill some more wells. At these kind of prices, that economic doesn’t fly anymore.

He suspects we will be in for several months of low oil prices, but then he sees them back into the $75-$80 range.

Even the gas side doesn’t look that exciting. Expectations of a repeat of last year’s weather are sort of fading into the background.

REITs? He thinks they are going to do fine, particularly with the market sort of getting bounced around. It looks as if interest rates could well be going up. He is not as concerned as others about that. He can see a 25 basis point increase in interest rates on the US side, but can’t really see it on the Canadian side. This shouldn’t really hit the REITs hard. However, going back to the taper tantrum in 2013, the moment the market turned against the REITs, they really sold off. If you have some good profits, consider taking some of those off in the new year. REITs are still the best place for yield you can find in this market.

Markets. Financials have been a good place to be, but he prefers the lifecos to the banks because the banks have been driven by the capital markets and by home loans. Outside of Canada is probably a better place to be than Canada. Regional US banks are a good place to be. He wants to own things that are good quality. Asia is out of favour here and so is a good place to be.

Markets. He is underweight energy, but the names that he does own are the higher grade names, such as Suncor (SU-T), Canadian Natural Resources (COS-T) and even Crescent Point (CPG-T) is not too bad. Some of the smaller caps, more highly levered names, are the ones that you want to avoid at this point. He is more exposed to the US than he is to Canada. If you think longer-term, who knows where energy prices are going to flow or where oil prices will land. $60 seems to be more of the consensus as a trough for oil prices. It depends on what OPEC does and how the economy responds, etc. Looking out 24 months as well as the energy sector in the past, and how they have fallen off in terms of the RSI, they tend to do well after 12 months, but do particularly well 24 months out. Longer-term, based on history, they tend to do okay if you’re picking up those shares at this point. He is expecting a little higher volatility next year.

ETF for the Chinese market? iShares Xinhua China 25 ETF (FXI-N) is the largest one out there and has the most assets. If you are looking at the performance of the Shanghai and seeing how it has done well, this one has not. You want something exposed to the A shares, a class that foreigners cannot purchase. 2 ETF’s that give you exposure to A class shares would be the Market Vector China ETF (PEK-N) and Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares (ASHR-N).

A US healthcare ETF? The largest ones would be the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH-N), which will give you exposure to names like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N), Pfizer (PFE-N) and Merck (MRK-N), etc. There is also SPDR Health Care (XLV-N). You could also consider the biotech space. In the healthcare space, he would rather pick some of the individual names, which are a little growthier.

Oil. In general, OPEC has decided to remain dormant and continue to produce 30 million barrels a day, not less which would shore up prices. There is shale on the US side, where production is getting better and more efficient, so supply is getting better. We need to see demand growth continuing to move upward, and that is really through a rebound in the global economy. If you look at what happened before in the 3 or 4 times that oil had dropped so quickly, you tend to see them do well 12 months later, or they will actually outperform the market by double digits 24 months later. It’s a matter of patience. They are starting to look interesting, but there could be a little bit more pain to come. He would probably look at a broader based ETF, such as iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy (XEG-T) to get that exposure.

Brian's Model Prices. For Brian’s model prices go to Google and type in “model price guy” and you’ll get his blog. His Facebook has 2000 companies listed where he gives his model price calculation (Fair Market Value) along with parallel lines which are called EBV (Economic Book Value) lines. These come straight from the balance sheet. Whenever there is a positive transit of these lines, it means the fundamentals are improving. A negative transit means fundamentals are getting negative. Usually the market responds before the fundamentals are known to the analysts or to the Street.

Markets. The drop in oil prices has made him more bullish on the US. There has been about a 38% decline in crude oil, and that is very welcome news. That will add about $1.3 trillion into the world economy. It reduces the drag on the lacklustre growth. With the fall in oil and all commodities, this is just one iteration of a strong US$. The Dollar Index is up about 10% against all currencies. However, we are only in the 1^st inning of this, and we are already seeing people shocked about the implications of a strong US$. This will go on for another 5 to 7 years. He has been steering clear of only the “high valued” stuff in energy. It boggles his mind that some of the names that are basically down 50% are trading at 5-7 times Book. For a commodity or a cyclical stock, that is outrageous in terms of valuation, he is very happy with the correction. It is not over yet and thinks there is a bear market coming in a lot of the names. If you stick to high cap, good valuation companies, you will ride out the storm. He is a valuation expert and looks for value in the market, and there is value in energy in some of the big names. He really didn’t get hit.

Markets. This is the most wonderful time of the year for stocks. December tends to be the strongest month of the year for equity markets. That is both on a frequency basis and an average return basis. The S&P 500 tends to gain about 76% of the time, averaging a gain of about 1.7%. The TSX is actually even better at 2.2% with a positive at about 86% of the time. Basically performance managers are chasing risks at this time. They’ve lagged the market for most of the year and they want to be aggressive at the end of the year. When their quarterly reports come out in January, they want to show that they are invested in the equity market, especially if it is going to run away. You typically get a big run up ahead of the US midterm elections in November. From about October to the end of the year, you get one of the best quarters out of the 16 quarter presidential cycle, and that actually continues on into the 2 quarters of the next year, so all the way through to June, you get some gains, returns that are actually 4 times above average. This is not a straight line. You get a lull from Dec 5th to Dec 15th, which is generally attributed to tax loss selling pressures. The average decline for the S&P 500 is about 9/10ths of a percent and is negative about 60% of the time. You are basically looking for sectors that have returned 5% or less in the year, which would include energy and small caps. Those are the areas you should probably stay away from, but it is also a buying opportunity. (See Top Picks.)

Copper? There has been a significant breakdown over the last few days, below $3. That is a concern. The chart shows a descending triangle pattern with a series of lower lows and lower highs and was constantly bouncing up against the support level of $3, and finally broke through that. This gives concern that this negative (bearish) set up could lead to significant downside. The pattern implies a move down to about $2. Their period of seasonal strength runs from about mid December through until May, which is attributed to the pickup in industrial demand, manufacturing, housing, etc.

Oil. Selling pressures on a seasonal basis comes to an end at this time of year. Over the past few weeks, there were significant lows at the $77 level. Now it is $67 which implies that we have a downward trend here. It has been significantly oversold. The weak seasonal tendencies are coming to an end at this time of year, and we could see this rise up into the quarterly futures expiration date in mid-December, so you could see a trade. Period of seasonal strength for oil and some of these energy stocks comes more towards February.