A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Is it time to get out of Canada? Nobody really knows where oil is going. He feels oil can still go lower as there is still excess supply. The other problem with oil is that it can be stored and eventually storage could get filled up. It has to settle somewhere. It will probably go up higher over a period of time. There will be a point over the next period of time when it is a great time to buy great oil companies [Canadian].

Markets. We are in the late innings of this bull market in Canada. Bull markets don’t last very long. You never know when they are going to end, but it kind of feels tired to him. Earnings are not impressing people. Consumers are tapped out. Growth is weak. The US looks a little better, but it is not that strong either. He is 50% cash right now. The best time to invest in stocks is after they’ve corrected. We saw that in March 2009. Anything you buy goes up pretty much, and that is when you want to be fully deployed. He is still buying, but is more selective. His 2 favourite types of investments are turnaround stories and small high growth/high risk opportunities. That is where he has done the best. He tends to avoid resources because he doesn’t like the unpredictability of the resource price. Prefers betting on really intelligent, motivated entrepreneurs, which he finds pays off the most.

Graphene. A form of graphite, one atom thick, and has an amazing potential if anyone can find a way to produce it economically. Some companies do produce it, but it is very expensive and not very reliable. Doesn’t think anybody has nailed it down yet. If it works out, it will change our world, because it has so many amazing properties. For now it is very early stage. It is very, very risky as there are no guarantees a company will ever be able to produce it.

3-D printing. Pretty fascinating and if they can ever get it to work properly, it will solve a lot of problems. Brilliant future if they can figure out how to make it work. Loves the space and the concept, but just doesn’t know if it is investable.

The effect of baby boomers retiring and depending on, or selling their investments for monthly income? Expects you will see low interest rates for a long time. As people get older they want to buy bonds or fixed income. That will increase demand, and therefore lower yield. Dividend paying stocks should do very well and will have a lot of buyers. There are a lot of great little private businesses that are run by smart entrepreneurs that work hard. These are probably baby boomers and possibly getting tired, so there are a lot of businesses for sale. Rollups benefit from this. This is an interesting trend.

Economy. The biggest overriding macro question and trend right now is what Central Banks are doing in these currency wars. We have had 1.5 years where everything calmed down, and now all of a sudden Europe is popping up. You have negative interest rates in Switzerland and Germany as well as Japan. Those are really unusual situations. You have a major dysfunction and dislocation in Europe, both politically and economically. There is huge unemployment. There is a situation where all of these countries are trying to devalue currencies. It is very much like the depression era where people were trying to “beggar thy neighbour”. The strong US$ with Euro falling recently, is putting real pressure on. People are waking up to the fact that earnings growth is going to be a little bit slower and potentially quite a bit slower than what they had originally anticipated. With some of the earnings that are being announced, we are seeing pretty big headwinds. The US$ seems set to move higher mostly against the euro, and because the European authorities really want their currency to move lower. Federal Reserve Board hasn’t done anything to alleviate the concern, and will probably begin to raise interest rates. He thinks money is going to continue to flow into US$ investments.

Markets. 2 years ago he and a lot of others were saying to get out of Canada and buy US. The concerning issue right now is that for a year now everybody has been saying that the domestic economy is much stronger than the international economy, so a lot of people are focusing on those domestically oriented names. Because everybody is focusing on that, it becomes increasingly difficult to be finding real cheap value. These low energy prices are really starting to bite with job layoffs. As long as you pick good quality companies, and if you are patient, you are going to see some good value come to it.

How did you generate 9% in your cash holdings? Had made a conscious decision to pull his profits and money out of the Canadian equity landscape last year, and move it into US dollars. The Cdn$ depreciated by about 9%.

Interest Rates. The drop of interest rates by the Bank of Canada was a complete surprise. Feels it was the right move. With the situation on real estate in Alberta and the job losses, the move was prudent to prime the pump a little bit. It was a little insurance to help release a little more growth. Expects there will be at least one more cut, if not 2, given the way the market is moving right now. We had a pretty big miss on inflation numbers on Friday when that number started to tick down, Bank of Canada’s primary responsibility is maintaining inflation in the 1%-3% range. Thinks employment numbers in January will not be good.

Bonds. Global government bond yields are at, or near record lows. However, you don’t want to not be in this market now, because when everything else falls apart, this is the market that is going to perform. From a diversification standpoint and your overall portfolio, you definitely want to have some government fixed income and some long-term bonds to balance out the rest of your returns. It has really been a capital appreciation game for the last several years, and he thinks this can continue. In the long run, he thinks the bond market will beat cash. Compared to Europe and Japan, we can still move quite a bit lower, and still generate some pretty good returns for your portfolio. He is more inclined towards corporate and provincial.

What do “D+18” and “FF” mean in corporate bonds? FF is a “Fixed Floater”, which means you have a fixed coupon for the 1^st period, after which you have a floating coupon. A pretty complex security, so this is one where you want to talk to your advisor to make sure you know what you are getting into. In Canada the “Fixed Floater” typically gets called. In Europe and America it is not so much the case. Those Fixed Floaters are subordinate bonds of the financial companies, not senior credits. The D+18 means the issuer can Call that bond at any time. They take the then Canada yield at 18 basis points to generate a new price. Typically the 18 basis points is well below what the bond was issued at. This rarely, rarely happens.

3-12 month effects from the recent Bank of Canada rate cut and the European Quantitative Easing on Canadian markets? In his opinion, a lot of the rally in the equity markets has been driven by central bank policies. They have inflated asset prices, and equity markets are one component of that. The European move probably makes Canada look more attractive as a place to invest in. However, Canada is cutting rates because they see sliding growth, which is generally not good for corporate earnings or equities. He doesn’t think rate cuts are going to help drive the TSE further.

Are Strip Bonds a viable investment option? Canada has one of the most well-developed strip bond markets in the world right now. Effectively you are going from an interest bearing instrument to a compounding instrument. For example, you are buying $100 that comes due in 2025, and today you only pay $.70 on the dollar for that. It’s a great way to lock in a rate of return and a great way to compound your interest in a tax-exempt account. You don’t want to do this in a taxable account as even though you are not receiving any interest, you have to pay tax on it every year.

Why is there such a large market for low yielding bonds of 1% or less? The main answer is liquidity. In GICs, you are locking in your money. What if you need your money in 6 months time?

(A Top Pick Feb 24/14. Up 13.17%.) Ville de Montreal 3.5% Sep 1, 2023. This one outstripped what the overall market did. This still looks relatively cheap compared to provincials.