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Market. The 10 year yield in the US is up to 3%. Friday the anxiety in the US on the rising yield reduced. There was a lot of coverage of the yield curve last week. Everyone is concerned. Long rates are going to go higher here and the curve will steepen out a little but the question is how high before things grind to a halt in the economy. We are starting to see some light on that. When the 10 year yield hit 3.05%, that is the key point and from there it moves to north of 5%, but he does not think we will see that. We are going to be tested here. He would want to buy into it rather than fear it. 1000 points could come off the S&P during the next recession.
Educational Segment. Digital Currency. In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency. They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency. He thinks central banks will control it. The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis. Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates.
The 10-year US yield at 3% doesn't mean very much. Would his clients accept US t-bonds at this rate? No. But as yields rise, it would make US stocks slightly less attactive. He's not selling stocks to buy more bonds, but pleased to receive slightly higher yields on bonds. It's a little better, that's all. Investors have been complacent given the strong markets of the past two years. Guess what? We'll have more 3-5% drops (like in early-February) to come. Own quality stocks and hold some cash to buy cheaper stocks. With dividends, those stocks will out-earn fixed income bonds.
General Market Comment. He is not deterred by the market move lately. He expects a little ebb and flow, but feels the economy is strong and interest rates will not be going into the stratosphere. Not a banner year, but he is not running for the hills. President Trump’s recent comments on $100 oil being too high is not going to change things, unless he releases from the petroleum reserves. A fair value of crude is $60-$80. Interest rates are not an issue until long term rates get up to 4-5% levels.
Market. Tran mountain: What you've got is a premier that is in office with three green MPs that are keeping him in office. He is trying to protect his office. He does into care what is happening to the rest of the country. The head of the green party and his ego is bigger and he talks nonsense half the time. He is not open to anything and just says no. Norman's Levine's opinion is that: 'why not have a vote today and see if he gets re-elected'.
Market. In December we had a great tax cut in the US and everyone thought 2018 would be a great year. Unfortunately this is the worst fiscal and monetary mistake the US Government could make. The dead weight of debt on the economy starts to weigh it down and we have crossed the threshold in the US for it to do that. In the past when there have been tax cuts but no spending cuts, the debt to GDP ratio gets worse each time. The US debt to GDP ratio has flat lined for the last 10 years since the last tax cut. We can't take another tax cut in the US, meaning it was the worst mistake they could make. This does not mean another recession because Japan has been in this situation for 80 quarters.
General Market Comment. He says last year was the lowest level of volatility on the VIX, now it has returned to a more normal level. The big change is that the medium and timeliness of “fake news” is now instant. Investors should not react to all the noise. Now if you want to spread a lie, it can be dispersed quickly. He prefers his information in print form.
Marijuana Industry. He sees this and cryptocurrency as being fascinating. The key is to correctly choose the future winners. Second Cup (SCU-T) is hoping to be able to distribute cannabis – he is not sure they will be. There are too many questions about legislation. If you see mining companies announce they are moving into this space, beware.
Market. This consolidation is a re-pricing consolidation. It is premised on the bond market being much bigger than the stock market and people are watching it. People are focused on 3%. The market is grinding because there is a re-pricing going on. We have come up a long way since Trump has been president. Comparing the 10 year and utilities, if you are into income and need cash flow, the utilities stocks' line on the chart shows that utilities have to come down when bonds go up to reset the pricing against the bond market. He thinks utilities are finished re-pricing.