A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Educational Segment. A Closer Look At The Rally on the TSX. Always take a closer look to see what exactly is leading the markets. Look at what volumes are taking the market higher or lower. The RSI on a daily basis has a lot of noise, but on a weekly or monthly basis is gives you a sense of how deep the oversold condition is. When you get a nine month RSI below 30 on the TSX, your returns tend to be very compelling 6 to 12 months out. Based on historical observations, investors should use any kinds of weakness to participate effectively.

Market. We had a big, strong recovery since the Christmas Eve low. You got your head handed to you in trying to time it. We have run into resistance right now. It was a pro-cyclical bent in the markets in January: Base metals, energy, technologies, financials and industrials. Defensives were much weaker like bonds, bond proxies, and consumer staples. Going forward we have to see the US dollar go a little lower. We need to see positive comments on the China/US negotiations.

Bond ETFs – does Technical Analysis apply, e.g. ZLC-T? Yes. The ZLC-T is a lot like the market. Corporate long bonds are a call on the market. If this one can break out then it would be a good place to be. If we eventually get rates rising, then this would be the first one to drop.

Amazon's Bezos has been executing his business plan for many years. Last week's earnings were phenomenal. Amazon has a lot of running room, and it will be around a lot longer than its nemesis Donald Trump. He likes tech companies because the healthcare space is ripe for disruption. Amazon has a good start in this space with some early investments. Bill Gross, the Bond King, retired. He endured a couple of tough years and lacked the team he needed in that time. He's also 74. An illustrious career. He put some money to work in December. The problems haven't gone away, but markets were comforted by the Fed saying they'll raise interest rates only if it merits that. Also, trade issues (China-US) have calmed down so markets have risen.

Consensus Consensus is a lagging indicator. Most research that retail investors access is from bank-owned dealers and this leads to a conflict of interest. So, he doesn't find consensus useful. When something happens to conflict with consensus, advisors just lower the price target. The whole ranking system is ridiculous and rife with conflict. Instead, contact individual investment counsels or do your own research.

Market Outlook The bull run in 1982 is following the same pattern of the 2009 bull run -- which is very bullish. There has not been the hysteria of the tech bubble on the upside in this run. He thinks the bull run will continue. The recent correction was too soon to be a signal of the end of the bull run.

Weed Sector Outlook No one knows where this sector is going forward. He sees this area like agriculture and science combined -- but there is a lot of uncertainty. Prices are very strong and it makes the metrics very expensive. You are only seeing cash burn at this point. Until there is a normalized margin for the space, it is not worth his risk-reward evaluation.

Time to invest in the Utility Sector? The sector should do better than 2018 with the expectation of flat interest rates. If rates to up it will be negative for this space. He would prefer to own a select few strong companies, rather than a diluted ETF. The ETF yields about 4.6%.

Ron Joyce, co-founder of Tim Horton's, dies at 88. Good long life, and a successful Canadian business. He remembers the Tim Horton's from the 60's. Hugely successful over time. He will be missed.

Big market gains in January. The volatility is amazing. December 2018 was the fourth worst month in 100 years, so all we've done is get December back. There was some panic. The Fed has really helped with stopping tightening and slower rate raises. We had good job numbers this morning, and earnings are co-operating. Mid-year, if the Fed raises rates, is the market going to panic? He hopes the economy is strong enough to take measured increases. It should help valuations. It doesn't look as though there's a recession on the immediate horizon, so markets can go up from here.

Is it good that investors are not looking to hide now that the market's more buoyant? We stopped worrying about higher rates, which were pressing on all the yield plays. If rate rises are slower, the places to hide look more attractive, as they're cheaper.

Market. The Fed has given the market a clear signal that they will not get in the way of the market short term. It rallied 400 points higher yesterday and is going higher today. Don't be afraid of owning stocks. The drop in the S&P was the worst last month for a December. By year-end he thinks we will hit 3000. Earnings drive stocks so an accommodative Fed should ease credit pressure. M&A will happen and stocks can be valued at a higher level with lower interest rates. It will not go up in a straight line in the next 11 months. We face headwinds for earnings, China and the Fed: two out of three have been check marked and it seems like we will get some kind of agreement with China.

Market Outlook - Amazon.com (AMZN-Q) issued a Q1 guidance a little weak and perhaps that indicates slower consumer spending. Consumer spending in a rising interest environment is a theme going forward. Interest rates are still rising even if the US pauses for a while and the global economy is weakening at the same time. That is going to affect corporate earnings. We are seeing also wage inflation that we haven't seen in a while. On this kind of environment you want to really focus on valuation. The safe sectors are consumer staple and health care in case the economy falters.

Any mid-level oil producers? He has not stepped back into the energy sector yet. He needs to see oil sustain higher prices. Longer term, the valuations are very enticing. When investors return, it could move fast. He would suggest starting to pick away and add to them as they prove things are sustainable.