A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

20-30% of family offices are in private equity, so worth investing in? Yes, it's easier for smaller investors to invest in private equity firms. Large family offices are sophisticated and fee conscious, but it's hard for small investors to understand their fees or what they are buying. Also, so much institutional money is flowing into infrastructure an private equity that it's driving down yields and returns. Warning: the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. These are illiquid investments. If you pay too much for them, it'll be hard to get a return.

Emerging market sovereign high-yield bonds Don't buy them Greece is a good example. The rule can suddenly change and it's not worth the extra return. Too risky. Countries are not like companies--they change rules and an investor can't do anything.

A huge loss on the markets today. We've had quite a year. Take a step back and keep perspective. US earnings were up 1.5%, mostly positive, and better than expected. Many have been shorting volatility. Even a tweet can shift things entirely. Trump's latest tweet, threatening more tariffs against China, is not a surprise; he's done that before when negotiating. The sell off this week means investors are taking risk off the table. He's actually hoping stocks falls more to meet his buy targets. A deal will likely happen. Meanwhile, hold some cash. Economic data globally still isn't great.

Market. There is no need to worry about Trump's latest tweets about trade with China. It is just Trump being Trump. Put yourself in China's shoes. Is there a bigger risk of US markets collapsing and Trump having to give in? He thinks you have the potential to see China say for the US to raise tariffs. He would not be surprised if China called his bluff. More tariffs are bad for the world, but he thinks this is the only way to bring China to the table.

Preferred Shares that have declined dramatically. There is a place for preferreds in everyone's portfolios but you have to understand the sensitivities. When rates are falling, the reset preferreds have price risk, but they are beneficial as rates rise. The reset preferreds are much more risky.

Return of Capital in non-registered accounts. The bad return of capital is when you earn a dividend and half of it is return of capital. Good return of capital is when a young ETF grows hugely. As dividends are coming in and the ETF is growing due to new investment by unit holders, they return some capital so everyone gets the higher dividend.

China – purchasing stocks, not ETFs in order to diversify. The Hong Kong – listed shares vs. the 'A' share markets differ quite dramatically over time. China has growth issues with the average age being 42. They are still a major growth engine for the world but with 50% more volatile than the rest of the world. He has no direct exposure right now to the Chinese market. He is looking for a pull back later this year in order to step in.

Educational Segment. Financial Planning. The Financial Planning standards counsel puts out a document every year with guidelines for assumptions that planners should make when doing planning for clients. The average Canadian is almost 41 years old. You have a 10% probability of one of a couple getting to 101 years of age. 25% is the chances of getting to 98 and 50% for getting to 95. Net returns after fees in conservative portfolios are only 3.16% so retirees want to go into aggressive portfolios. Canadian stocks do not have the exposure to the high growth sectors. He thinks financial planners have a high likelihood to underperform. People are not saving enough.

Market. Everything in the model looks really good. He is looking for the NASDAQ to be the growth part of his portfolio. The trade deal affects some parts, but Tech situations are up. The TSE has not had any rate of return in years. S&P and NAZDAQ stocks have done very well. You have to have some growth in the portfolio or it will underperform. Bank stocks, for example, have done nothing. There is 2% inflation eating away at your nest egg every year.

He didn't take any action today, despite the sudden market drop. A lot of times in investing it's best to do nothing. Let things go. Interesting today was how oil and copper acted. If Trump's tweet is the precursor to not getting a China trade deal done--that would be a very bad outcome. Six months from now, we could be tallking about much higher rates, so now could be a pause. You need a pro-growth portfolio with some defense. Oil stocks will be a place of value (a top pick today) and plough right through in the coming months. The US dollar will roll over soon.

Fibonacci trading Use them in retracements, where a stock peaks then comes down, and those levels are 76.8%, 61.8%, 38.2% and 23.6%. The nuance is in finding your spot. So, if a stock makes a brand-new high and starts to head down. You got a lot of trading action at those four levels. This isn't foolproof, but shows clusters that tend to happen. Some investors really adhere to this theory. Do more research online.

How do you do tech analysis on a new, young company with little history? Also, are there any new patterns used in tech analysis? He wouldn't. There's not enough data. And he isn't aware of any new patterns, and that's good. Tech analysis began when Japanese rice farmers looked at past patterns of harvests to determine the future harvest.

Market Outlook He thinks the market reminds him of the saying, "But the Emperor has no clothes!" Semi-conductor stocks are up 35%, but their industry is in depression and going down. Phone sales are flat or going down. He thinks investors are only focusing on recent analyst forecasts -- if they beat it, buy it. He has been in the business 50 years and calls this market "insane." He thinks the S&P500 would hit fair market value at 3080 -- historically a major turning point down when the broad market achieves full valuation.

S&P500 He sees technical support for the S&P at 2.5 times book value -- about 2505. Until then it is still a bull market. The ceiling is 3080 -- fair market value.

Stock market buoyancy today. Market of two tales. Any correction in growth names, like tech and consumer discretionary, tends to get bought. Good numbers are coming in. Defensives like healthcare and utilities are a different story.