A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The state of the energy market He's been out of this sector since fall 2014. It's been a classic bear market since with some extreme bear rallies. Two things: the global oil market is already hard, compounded by domestic pipeline issues. It's just too hard. To own this sector, you must firmly believe that global oil will stay at $60-65 and not plummet, and that pipelines will happen soon. He has no confidence in either, especially the latter. True, there's excellent value in Suncor, Vermillion and Whitecap, but these catalysts need to happen.

Growth stocks as a TFSA strategy Put all your growthier winners in your TFSAs? Yeah, I guess you could, but.... aim for singles like dividend growth. It's safer.

Protection strategies if the market plunges 20% The average bear market has a 42% drawdown. If you're not prepared for this, then have an asset allocation. First thing is, how much of a drawdown can you stomach? Next, diversify into bonds and stocks. Also, have covered call strategies. Point is, be ready, and have a strong hand when others are weak. Buy when others struggle.

Should I let dividend stocks ride the ups and downs of a market, or use a stop order? It depends on you. Storm clouds are gathering now. We will hit a recession at some point, though he expects the current rally to continue for a while. A downtown could amount to 20-30%, but remember that those stocks will rise back up the following year or so. If you maintain good positions and they pay good dividends (i.e. AQN-T), then there's nothing wrong with that. He prefers to hold, most of the time. But some may want to sell a bit off.

If a stock keeps falling, at what point do you stop averaging down? Depends. Some stocks are very whippy. Long-term, he likes NVDA-Q which has sold off half, but it doesn't mean there's anything wrong with the stock long term. Others though, there is indeed something wrong.

For a senior looking for safety and dividends, what sector or ETF to buy? Buy U.S. tech. Valuations are still cheap, like Apple and Google. Amazon is growing rapidly. They boast strong cash flow. Will they be broken up? Will the earnings streams be broken? The latter answer is probably not; they won't kill the golden goose. Yes, he likes ETFs.

Market Outlook He suggests putting money into the "risk-on" assets. The market was weakening back in April and had cautioned clients pause. Now they believe an intermediate low has been established and are recommending capital be redeployed back into the market. Today's price action is likely a signal we are about to move to new all time highs. This includes getting back into the crude oil space -- especially the integrated companies.

Gold prices Gold prices are testing key resistance again at $1350 /oz. He thinks a pullback may be coming back towards $1300 soon and reaccelerate later in the summer to potentially test $1400 or higher. Trading in the mining space seems to suggest the smart money is heading for the exit right now. If you are patient you may be rewarded handsomely.

Which oscillator do you recommend? The MACD is the most commonly used. It measures the differences between a slow and faster moving average. Technicals are driven by herd behavior, so if you follow the more broadly used indicator you will better understand the moves in the market.

Oil Prices They recommended to buy back into oil back in February. By the end of April they recommended that oil was due to retrace and they moved their clients toward gold. Now he thinks it is time to get back into the black gold.

Today's Trans Mountain green light gives him some confidence in the pipeline. He expects more court challenges. he doesn't think the Transmountain will cause a huge amount of environmental harm and is likely safer than transferring oil by train. Also, oil pipelines won't be around one day as we transition to cleaner energy...Markets are up today Trump threatened China with more tariffs--this is theatre of the absurd, a crazy way of running things.... The US Fed: he wouldn't be surprised if they said they saw some negative numbers (i.e. unemployment). "We may see some negative indications, but we're not ready to cut....yet."

Market. A lot of people are calling for an emergency rate cut, but we are at full employment. Rate cuts at this point are pushing on a string. They are not going to work. It creates a miss-allocation of capital and bubbles. The Fed is saying they are considering negative interest rates to stimulate. We don’t want this here. The academics need to really rethink policy. There is an 80% chance of a rate hike priced into the market for July.

Lumber & US Home Builders. WOOD-N trades in the US for lumber manufacturing. It is in a downtrend. There can be a short up tick due to natural disasters. XHB-N plays the home-builders and suppliers. Both sectors have been beaten up significantly. It is not until the recession hits main street that these things bottom out. Anything positive since the last recession is a counter-cyclical really and should be sold into.

Gold. He thinks the Fed is willing to let inflation run hot. He thinks we are ready for a breakout in Gold. It is one of his biggest positions in most of his portfolios. He likes the sector here.

Canadian $. He thinks it will ping-pong from here. Ultimately it will head lower. This always hits the oil sector.