Market. Central Banks with firing of the central banker in Turkey. There are parallels going on here. You have always seen techniques going on with truly overt government techniques. The government lowering rates is not going to work. You have this massive debt in the world and low interest rates, so we have to rethink policies on how to stimulate in the world. He likes that Trump makes it easier for businesses to do business. When you look at the FANGs, APPL-Q is not expensive. There is a the swath of hold recommendations so there is quite a bipolar recommendation developing.
GOLD. ETF or Income Fund. GLD-N is the biggest gold ETF and is the one he uses. There is an iShares one (CGL-T) to play gold with a currency hedge. He is fine with ETFs.
Educational Segment. We are at one of those magical market points where we are at a round number. We are nearing 3000 on the S&P. The psychology of the big round number… The DOW has been around longer. The S&P-500 is about 40% of the world in equities. So it is the benchmark of the world. The top is probably in but we made a new high here. The percentage of stocks lifting the market recently is shrinking and this is a sign of weakness. It is nothing to celebrate. Don't suffer from the fear of missing out.
Market. He has a more broad-based definition of infrastructure so it includes data centers, towers and some of the transports. He excludes pipelines. His stocks have under-performed global equities in growth in 2001, 2008 and 2015. Renewable energy costs are falling and especially in a place like India. It is a driving theme there – see the space where he would talk about past picks.
Renewable Energy in India. They have a lot of coal fired emissions. It is now economic to generate by solar panels. It makes economic sense. There is no variable cost to solar. A coal plant takes almost 48 hours to start up and it adds to the operating costs. Solar is 10% cheaper in India than coal. Solar power is still only 3.6% of generation in India.
US or Canadian Utilities. He would not add simply based on valuation. They are all trading at all time highs. This has been a risk-off trade, a crowded trade, so it is not about growth. He has been reducing them in his portfolio.
Another sell-off today ever since Friday's job report, which dampened the Fed outlook of cutting interest rates. This pullback is natural. He's a long-term investor and investing in the U.S. has paid off historically. There is little growth in Europe and overseas. The U.S. will continue to grind higher. It's up 18% year to date, but don't expect that rate for the rest of 2019. He does not see a recession in the next 18 months. There's confusion in the market now--where is the market going?
Banks outlook TD is one of his largest holdings. Canadian banks hacve endured good times and bad. Banks are a core holding. He like the banks' dividend yield plus 3-5% annually going forward. PE ratios are 9-12x, which is low. There is little to worry about unless there is a severe recession.
He can't guess what the US Fed will do, but he feels we're still in a rate-rising environment and now we're in a hiccup. Today's U.S. jobs number
makes it hard for the Fed to bow to the market. Always remember that liquidity remains the mother's milk of the market--it is key. Bonds are a bellweather for the wider market and we saw a big move today in the 10-year. Given all this, he expects the Fed will hold the rate and will muddle through. Later, the 10-year will rise, then the Fed will follow suit. Since 2016, the S&P has been trending up. It will likely rise into the fall until rates become restrictive. Finally, will Kawhi Leonard re-sign with the Raptors?
What is yourfav tech ind The 200-day moving average is vital, because it tells you whether there's a trend during events such as the start of a 10% correction.
Market. Thinks the economy is in pretty good shape right now and that there's a huge disconnect between the data and where all the economic figures are. There is a sense that something bad is going to happen, but looking at earnings and jobs data everything appears to be fairly strong. He doesn't know why people aren't listening to the numbers. We had a great run with the recent bull market, he would like to see some resilience in the market to get us ready for the next correction or recession. Interests rate have been low for quite a while he would like to see them going up.
Substainable investing opportunities? Feels low carbon assets are not properly valued and undervalued vs fossil fuel assets. Sees opportunities in renewable energy utilities and technologies that will benefit in a carbon pricing market, independently of the political environment and the upcoming election.
Canadian solar panel manufacturers? Not any in Canada to his knowledge. There is Canadian Solar but it's actually a Chinese company. He would be cautious when investing in specific manufacturers. If you really want to get in he would look into TAN Invesco Solar ETF. Need to be very cautious with the dynamic in China and price dropping so quickly.
Market. There is a demand for stability and for yield. There were some hundred-year European bonds issued in Austria at just over 1%. You are a lot better with European stocks that have a dividend over 1% and increase their dividends over time. Either the bond market or the stock market is right at being at all time highs. Resolving trade issues over the next 6 months would give reasons for the economy to improve. In a pullback he would look for sectors such as healthcare. Companies have to be able to increase dividends.
Canadian Banks. CM-T has the most exposure to the Canadian housing markets. CM-T is the cheapest but not his favourite. RY-T, BMO-T and TD-T are his preferences. This will be a good place to be if there are no housing blips.