A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Will earnings season be a shock? We won't see that many misses, but projections won't be that exciting. Ample multiples in the US. In Canada, we're struggling with the resource sector. He believes that gold stocks only work when inflation rises, and it may not get back to 2% for a significant period. AI is beginning to have an impact on costs, and 5G will speed everything up. So inflation may lie dormant for the time being.

The old economic models aren't working. The world economies have evolved away from manufacturing toward service. And AI has added to that. We've had 10 good years of development, and we'll see the results of that, especially with 5G.

Where to park US cash? In a US dividend focused ETF. With the Canadian dollar strengthening, you're going to lose a bit in the exchange rate, so this ETF would make sense. But wait to buy until we see what happens with the Fed, as you might get more with your CAD.

Use ETFs to start an RESP? ETFs are perfect. Though you start off small, you still get instant diversification. ZLB is low volatility with good quality stocks, if you want to be really cautious.

Thoughts on the current market. He's still pretty fully invested. But in any market run up, not a bad time to take profits. Look for dividends, rather than growth stocks. Be a little more defensive. There's enough momentum coming out of the Fed to keep markets relatively happy. But come September, he'd be a little more concerned.

We're locked in a tug of war between a slowing economy and expectations for lower interest rates. US Fed Chair Powell meets with the Senate this week. Canadian oil stocks aren't attracting investors, because there is too much product that can't get out. Yes, some oil stocks are paying a high yield, but these may be too good to be true and unsustainable.

TRST has been punished this week for violating Heath Canada rules He doesn't own cannabis. The industry is unsettled, unclear where the value will be created and the regulations keep evolving. There's also the issue of corporate governance--who's on the board? He's seen some shady characters on the board of some cannabis companies (not TRST). Also, valuations are astronomical.

How are the markets? Markets are good, and so is the price of gold. So life is good.

Where is the price of gold going? Nice to see it break out after 5 years. It's going a lot higher. The global monetary and fiscal situation is a mess. The only way central banks can keep things going is by dropping interest rates and maintaining stimulus. Gold is moving because interest rates are moving down. It's what central banks are saying about the quality of the expansion, and it's not good, so they have to drop interest rates. All things come to an end. He's looking for the S&P to reach its calculated fair market value, he calculates it at about 3100, and we're at 3000 now.

Earnings expectations falling? A year ago, consensus for this quarter was a gain of 9%. Now it's looking for -2.9%. The bulls are saying 2019 will be soft, and 2020 will be a recovery. The expected earnings chart says otherwise.

Critical level for the S&P 500? Structural support level is 2550. If the market pulled back that far, you'd probably get a nice rebound from there.

Investing smartly and wisely. Massive disruption in retail driven by Amazon, and it's spreading. The rules of investing are changing. And if you don't grasp this and take advantage, your portfolio is going to get hammered.

Market Outlook The S&P500 finally breached 3000 points. A big round number has psychological meaning. The Fed is still hinting that another rate cut may be coming. He is giving his clients the message to keep a very balanced position. Global growth is slowing and global PMI is slowing -- not a great back drop. The NY Fed Recession Indicator is getting close to predicting another recession around mid-2020. The inverted yield curve is another signal. Investors should prepare for a recession within the next 6-12 months. In the interim, you can add real estate and be defensible.

Market. Trade tensions are starting to impact the US economy. The whole global economy is slowing and they see a rate cut at the end of July. It is a precautionary cut. The jobs number was strong last month, but if you look at manufacturing data, we are not expanding at the levels we were at 6-8 months ago. Things are softening. The housing market has stayed flat. We are in an extended bull market but the growth has been very slow vs. other cycles.

Every instinct tells him that the market will come off--correct--but not until the fall. We will skate along for the rest of the summer. Equities are strong because nothing will rock the boat. Until that comes along, we will skate along. Gold needs to pass $1,400 before he buys. The TSX chart is toppy, but it has a better chance of further upside than the American exchanges. With rates staying low, all is good for stocks. He is selling at these toppy levels in order to buy back later (when the market dips), like sell half.