A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
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If you can buy puts in your portfolio you should consider covered call put protection. It is challenged, though. His funds work in this way.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
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Educational Segment. Eventshares created an ETF that deals with government policy. He does not see Trump winning the election last year. PLCY-N is overweight energy and industrials but it is a bet on LNG, refining, utilities and infrastructure. Also it is into military and defense. This allows you to participate in some of the dramatic changes.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
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Market. Keep some extra cash right now. Investors are being lulled by some false things going on like in the US they keep saying the market hit a new high. Over the last year it has not gone anywhere. With all the uncertainty going on, and earnings not being that great, it is a good time to have some extra cash. He is willing to give up some near term gains in order to hold cash.
Norman LevineUnknown
BUY
BUY
Regional Banks. He owns two. See his Top Picks today. He likes the regional banks. As we swing to value stocks, money should flow back into regional banks.
Norman LevineOwned
COMMENT
He's bullish, though there remains seasonal risk to mid-October. His own Bear-o-Meter indicates that risk is actually declining in the markets which are looking for an entry point as soon as a few days, perhaps a few weeks. But these are trades, not long-term investments, that would last only a few months. The US-China trade deal will probably be settled in the short term, which will result in a market lift. The US election begins in February, so probably sell at that time. That could be the final rally. He is bullish, but not long-term. In late-2020 into 2021 he feels more bearish when a downturn could happen. He likes Europe--it has sold off and is setting up for a buyer's market. Same goes with emerging markets, such as Brazil. These are all places where investors are not (America is a crowded trade now).
COMMENT
Market Outlook All of Europe, Germany in particular, is looking soggy as exports dry up. US manufacturing is also slowing. We not facing recession just yet, however. Employment figures are showing a big division between service and manufacturing jobs -- service jobs outnumbering manufacturing by 10:1. The service sector is still growing, but wage growth is decelerating. He didn't think today's job numbers were disappointing as the jobs increased by 45,000 over the month. He is watching a US steel story. Tariff increases have led to farmers cutting back plantings, which has led to a slowdown in farm equipment purchases. You have to be aware of the unintended consequences.
David BaskinUnknown
COMMENT
Data was mixed for the economy in the US. Tariff wars turned out to be non-productive in the past and this will probably be the case now. He's been reducing equities and focusing more in ETFs.
David CockfieldUnknown
COMMENT
There's too much emphasis on negotiations because they'll probably just keep going. Maybe the Chinese are waiting for the elections to get rid of Trump for a better deal.
David CockfieldUnknown
COMMENT
Markets are currently waiting for clear answers, especially for the trade war. It looks like it will escalate. There could be a good correction if the trade war continues.
David CockfieldUnknown
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Market. There is always some kind of drama. This week it feels like something has changed but he sees it playing out in a normal fashion. There has been a bit of slowing economic data and the ISM Service Non-manicuring data has not moved into contractionary territory but is showing signs of slowing. The cracks in the services side of the economy in the US are a sign that what is happening in the rest of the world does affect the US. There is political impact from the trade drama. Trump is in a weaker negotiating position with the Chinese and this will cause a more protracted trade war with China which will be bad for growth. He is a little more conservative with equities. He is gearing his portfolios for slower growth and lower yields. If you get a moderate pull back in the economy, zero growth or negative growth but not a deep contraction you do get a decoupling and differentiation and you can stock pick better. You might consider REITs as they do better in that environment. He is more into bonds than equities at present.
Cameron HurstUnknown
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Market. There are clearly risks as we go into the fourth quarter. There is a lot of political risk. The US China trade talks this weekend are important. China is playing off Trump's weaknesses. We are looking at a year when there are technically no earnings growth. He thinks the US don’t want Trump to have an election win. Congress will not pass an infrastructure spending bill. The unfunded pension liability globally is estimated to be $200-300 Trillion over the next 30-50 years. Low interest rates are a key reason for this. This problem will not be solved with interest rates going to zero again.