2020 should be good for world markets now that the China-US trade war has calmed and Brexit looks settled. What geographies to invest in and how much? Yes, a lot of political angst has been cleared, but he'd rather look at fundamentals. For 2020, he'd be underweight US, market weight Canada, overweight Europe and maximum overweight in emerging markets.
An ETF paying income for a senior Hard to identify one ETF. The biggest challenge for him is generating for clients yield in a low-interest rate time. The solution is moving into dividend-paying stocks, but these are not bond proxies.
Breaking news: Boeing is halting production of the 737 Max: Not a huge surprise. They alluded to it before. It will have financial impact. Their supply chain is backing up, so this may slow it down. This stoppage has never happened before that he knows of. To get people confident to fly a plane that has crashed will take a lot to get that back. Airlines will be hit and will want some sort of compensation from Boeing. During this year, Boeing stock remains positive, because there's a duopoly, but he still wouldn't buy Boeing. If there was more competition, Boeing would be crushed. They show some arrogance, too....Cineworld bought Cineplex today: it's a good deal for both companies. He sold Cineplex today. Cineplex's balance sheet was getting levered up and their strategy didn't work by paying a high dividend buy investing in various businesses. Now, under Cineworld, their position is stronger; the deal with be accretive, given them more of a global presence. He doesn't think Cineworld will pay a dividend.
Market. Central bankers have gotten used to just throwing money at the problem and we forget how unusual this is. It used to be in the US that the economy was used to improve financial assets and now it is financial assets that are being used to improve the economy. Share prices are now rising faster than earnings and revenues. You are seeing valuation inflation. The US FED is planning on buying half a billion dollars in bonds by mid-January to put them into record territory.
Market Outlook There is some kind of agreement on the US-China trade issues, but there is nothing in writing yet. She thinks the market had already factored this in and is now selling on news. Even an easing of tariffs would be positive for China and business confidence globally would pick up. She would like to see companies increase spending to expand capacity. Her top picks are avoiding deep cyclical names. She expects to see US economic growth to slow modestly, but a recession will be avoided. Even in Canada there is a shortage of skilled workers, causing he to be weary of wage inflation.
He was surprised by the election of Boris Johnson. Nothing moved today. There probably would have been more volatility if the news today didn't come in.
Market Outlook The base case for him is that global growth is slowing. Commodity producing countries are having a tough go -- Australia may have its first recession in over 25 years. The US election in 2020 will see the Republican party press economy friendly proposals. A lack of a trade agreement between the US and China could create tail winds if not resolved before then.
Market Outlook The Fed comment today was more dovish than he thought. We need to see consistent and persistent inflation before we raise rates, he thought was the message. Equity markets should go higher, unless trade tariffs impact things on the 15th. The US is expected to delay implementing tariffs against China. The rust belt is weakening the US and President Trump knows this, so tariffs will not likely stay in place long, he thinks. Trade war fears impact China more than the US and it creates headwinds for Europe. Next year, the market will be driven by earnings that could continue to improve if interest rates remain contained, which would lower earnings multiples and could propel the market higher.
US bank sector? The market is still pretty cheap, especially for US banks. It is a good long term hold. A cyclical uptick in the economy would add something on the investment bank side. The sector is a good hold for the next 10 years.
TFSA holdings for young investors? You can own banks with their earnings growth and dividends. The telcoms and utilities have done well through all ranges of interest rates.
Protection strategies If you are worried about markets falling, you might look to sell at a higher price later on, collecting a call premium and a dividend in the meantime. This adds cash to protect to market downside. For a high dividend stock, you could sell puts to collect premium and own a great dividend payer at lower prices. You can also consider selling futures to hedge your position, but not have to give up cash flow of your shares or incur capital gain taxes.