A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Wisdom of a dividend portfolio in midst of higher inflation. In a high inflation world, you have to protect your capital. Money is just a utility. It allows you to buy something or do something in the future. Trying to keep your purchasing power level with inflation. To the extent that you outpace inflation, it increases your standard of living. He doesn't think we're in a 10-15% inflationary world. We're seeing tremendous deflation based on technology. With inflation, all the companies that provide the things we need will see profits go up, and dividends won't be as modest. Invest conservatively in things we absolutely need. Technology may outpace inflation when times are good, but it won't when there's a downturn. The middle road is the answer. Infrastructure equities with solid dividends that pass through inflation, and try to find some secular growers within that space.
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He targets the S&P at slightly above 5,100, the highest target on the street. He is optimistic about markets. That target is based on 4.5x adjusted book value, the peak valuation of the market in 2000, hitting that peak three times until the market declined. Meanwhile, extremely valued companies began tumbling, but the wider bear market didn't happened until 2001. This could happen again. The TSX is stunningly cheaper than the S&P based on book value. The TSX has quite a way to run, because the banks have huge upside. Bank earnings: At least two quarters will see those loan loss provisions will flow back into Canadian bank earnings, which will allow the banks to raise dividends, which had been frozen during the lockdown as a precaution. The bank stocks have done well, but well short of historic average highs (by valuation).

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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The large amount of liquidity that was injected into the system due to the pandemic will probably cause higher inflation than previous years. However, hyperinflation is not expected. The best defense is to have asset class diversification. Commodity exposure, real return bonds and certain stocks should do well as well. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
It's driving him nuts how an analyst today was saying that you track the market by tracking the Fed and the money supply. Argh! The sector and the company are what you need to track, instead. Following the Fed can help at the most, that's all.
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Covid will linger for a while until we return to normal. To figure out where we are in the world is a lot more complex, but we are in much better situation than a year ago. If we stay on this course, the numbers were be better, but expect volatility as banks around the world must inevitably slow down quant. easing, though the banks must be careful, because economies are fragile. We'll be in this situation well into 2022. Supply chain disruptions are more disruptive than an overheated stock market. He expects more normalized growth in 2022. Governments have been taking on more debt during Covid, and they will weigh on those nations' growth. Meanwhile, consumers are spending less (as seen in lower credit card balances) though they are getting more credit cards. Inflation will certainly exist going forward.
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Market outlook. Yellen was supportive of Powell's re-appointment. It is calming for markets if Powell is reappointed. How much is the Feds going to spend, and how much will be monetized. Taper is on the agenda. Expectations are for beginning of tapering to be pushed back due to delta variants.
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Saw in the Feds meeting minutes that there is a signalling to hawkish attitudes. In the weakness, if delta is an issue, tapering can be pushed out. Should put upward pressure on interest rates and cool markets.
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Saw a big announcements from major corporations that they are mandating vaccine shots. There is also tightening in Australia and China from the variant. However, ultimately demand will come back in due course. There is some uncertainty still.
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Gold. Downgraded assessment the outlook for gold. Should be rallying more than it should be. It should be trading at 2200-2400 range. Digital assets are taking away money from the traditional inflation hedge from gold.
COMMENT

Tech stock allocation in portfolio. Tech accounts for 21% in the global index. Tech will drive productivity and growth decades into the future. How you construct that will be different for everybody. A handful of large stocks accounts for a third of the S&P. They are huge influencers. For TSX, it is 11.6% tech. Shopify accounts for 7.2%. In Canada, we do not have a diverse sector. Must look globaly for tech stocks. Right now, it is expensive and at risk to rising interest rates. Could see underperformance in large cap tech.

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Educational Segment. President Biden's approval rating has dropped significantly after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. There are implications on policy but also on the markets. It will be harder and harder to get his agenda passed. Fed's are talking about tapering and markets are starting to see weakness. The VIX curve has flattened. Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the trend. Although the Nasdaq is at all time highs, more stocks are trading at 52-week lows. Market bredth is breaking down.
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Market. It feels like the last two months had little damage compared to the average. The big five fang tech stocks have held up the average. In Canada it was the banks. There has been a lot more damage below the surface. The Russell 2000 was down 10% from the peak on Friday and here it was the energy sector that took the hit. That is where we will see the opportunities. The number of stocks participating is declining. Demand is not slowing down, but there are supply-driven issues. He thinks we are positioned for a pretty long cycle. Find your valuation point and hold them.
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Regulation to require a third of a corporate board to be workers. It is interesting. Europe is doing it in some countries. The Conservatives are considering it. He thinks getting employees more involved in the management of the company is beneficial.
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Where to put RESP Money. 40% in tech: big cap, QQQ, SMH ETF. Financials: Canadian bank stocks. Go into growth sectors. Communications services and telecoms.

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