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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Peak tax loss selling tends to be in the third week of November. This is also the best time for buyers that are looking for a contrarian play. Inflation is also a fear so investors should look at companies with pricing power. Consumer discretionary, utilities and health care should be areas of interest. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
After September and October, we've now reached the promised land--November. Be bullish in these year-end trends: cars, the environment, the metaverse, cloud computing, and oil (oil should stay above $60 for the rest of the year).
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Supply chain issues. There were questions about whether inflation was transitory or not. This is an extraordinary period with lots of supply chain issues. We won't know the impact of inflation for some time. The central bank is hawkish. If the Feds become more hawkish, it will affect investor sentiment further.
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Stagflation. Weak economic growth with higher prices could happen like in the 70s. No one knows for sure. The Fed will err on the side of caution and disinflation. The Fed will not be too hawkish in his opinion. Technology is disinflationary and a global workforce enabled by tech is also disinflationary. This will end up being transitory but we will not know for an uncomfortable amount of time.
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Portfolio strategy. Still in a low interest rate environment. There are a lot of dividend stocks that are working and returning value to investors. Small cap, material, energy and oil are doing well. Lots of names in the US that are pricy. These are the names he is staying away from. In the Canadian and US tech, there are some opportunities. Toggle back and forth where you want to buy. There is opportunity in the big cap tech in the US.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Commodity prices should continue to be elevated from higher inflation and ongoing economic recovery. Things should settle down once inflation normalizes. Oil, gas and copper probably has some room to run. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Markets. Right now, the market has the bit in its teeth. Q3 earnings are excellent. Market's reaching up toward his target of 4.5x book value of 5250. Not an unwarranted target, as that was the precise peak of the stock market in 2000. It may rise as we get more balance sheets in, as numbers are affected by growth in the balance sheets. As the market gets higher, people are getting complacent, especially looking into 2022. That might be one concerning sign. But right now, that's not the case.
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Canaries in the coal mine. He looks at particular sectors and stocks as his personal canaries. For example, FANG stocks, the leaders since 2009. If they break, it will be all over. AMZN might be the stock to signal the end. In the whole Covid selloff, AMZN barely budged. It warrants attention, as it represents poor value, even if it's holding in.
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Stock buybacks. Not a fan when the valuation of a stock is at or around book value. Marginal value to a client is very small, compared to the marginal value of having a dividend. Management should pay the dividend instead.
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Volatility in September/October. Historically, September and October tend to be volatile as capital moves to new positions and there's profit taking. Things tend to settle down after that. In December, less volatile and markets cruise through to the end of the year.
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Challenges this year like inflation and petro currency. Today, BOC announced it's going to stop bond purchases. This will lead to higher rates. Mortgages could be challenged. Also signals our economy is stronger and can stand on its own. Increase in the CAD means we'll have trouble being competitive compared to Europe, US, and Asia. These challenges will impact the Canadian economy.
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Take advantage of a higher CAD. Europe's on sale. Look to buy high quality European, US, or Asian companies at a positive currency differential. Investors need to be cognizant of these opportunities.
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TFSA ideas for a USD investment. Healthcare is an interesting area, especially with a slant toward medical devices. MDT is a safe and steady name, significant track record of dividend increases. For a 25K investment, you need to decide if you're looking for safe and steady, or significant upside. See also his Top Picks.
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Buying commodities. You can buy them when they start moving, for example last year. Another strategy is that you trade around. When a stock runs up, you trim it. When it bottoms and starts to move again, you push capital towards it. So you always have a base position, not necessarily a full weighting at all times.
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