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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Inflation. Significant portion is coming from energy. There are real inflationary pressures out there, as the labour market keeps getting better and wages are rising. Interest rates will remain lower for longer, so it won't have too much effect on the companies they own for the long term. Shorter end bond yields, tied to monetary policy, has been moving all over the place. But the 10-years haven't moved quite that much. People might be thinking we're getting to peak inflation.
COMMENT
Positioning. Continues to like tech. It's been a great space. There was a time when rates were going up, tech stocks were getting pulled. It might make some sense on a discounted cashflow model for some higher growth companies; however, there are a lot of good companies that aren't as tied to rates as the market was suggesting. This disconnect has been rectified with tech now going up with rates, which is more normal. He's focused on workplace technology and enterprise solutions. Security has been important. He's not avoiding any sectors in particular; they have broad exposure.
COMMENT
Semiconductor sector. TSM has geopolitical risk, but he likes to think cooler heads will prevail. Hasn't participated in the recent rally as much, but it's only a matter of time. A great company, and one of his favourite ways to play the space for foundries. He likes AMD for CPUs, NVDA for GPUs, ASML and AMAT for semi manufacturing equipment.
COMMENT
Access to global stocks. This is what asset managers do. It is tricky to access them through the pink sheets or through ADRs. You have to make sure there's liquidity, look at foreign exchange, etc. In most cases, the simplest way to do it is through a fund.
COMMENT

WEIGHT OF THE CRYPTOCURRENCY ECOSYSTEM

In the last article, we saw that the market cap of crypto-currencies was around $3 trillion. The question of a speculative bubble or a real paradigm shift is on everyone's lips.

While it is always important to handle them with care, statistics can always give us clues that we need to dig deeper.

There is over $1 quadrillion in the world. The global equities market represents about $90 trillion, the precious metals market such as gold and silver represents $12 trillion. The world's total M2 money supply (physical money, deposits, etc...) is $40 trillion and global real estate accounts for $30 trillion. Including other forms of investment, global debt, and the derivatives market, we get a total of $1 quadrillion, or $1,000,000,000,000,000.

A quick calculation immediately reveals that the crypto-currency market represents 0.3% of all wealth in existence. It is also 4 times smaller than the precious metals market, and 30 times smaller than the global equities market.

We can therefore think that, even if there is a bubble (a lot of behavior leads us to think that there is an abusive speculation on the part of many investors), there is also, on the long term, a place to take for crypto-currencies which are increasingly adopted, have already proven themselves and are increasingly valued by people to fight inflation and have easy access to means of payment thanks to the DeFi.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Rates may go up soon. For the time being, investors could reduce very expensive growth stock exposure, and reduce high income dividends that have no growth. Short duration bonds should be the only type kept and be cautious of commodity exposure. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
5 year outlook. The market is very expensive right now. Beaten up stocks have come back. Some of it's justified, and some sectors like travel and leisure will take longer. EV has a lot of froth from low interest rates and a lot of momentum. There will be money lost 5 years from now. He prefers value investing, rather than chasing momentum with complete disregard for valuation, as this never ends well.
COMMENT
Internet giants. Some are looking frothy, though not necessarily MSFT or AMZN. NVDA and AMD have gone straight up, and they'll go down at some point. Small group of stocks that everyone's chasing, disregarding valuation, which is almost a guaranteed way of losing money. More a game of musical chairs than investing. Great opportunities to buy when everyone is panicking and selling.
COMMENT
Big 6 Canadian banks raising dividends. That's the 6M dollar question. Every bank should raise, but at different rates as some have lower payout ratios. BMO could raise the most. Question is whether they'll do it in one fell swoop, or over quarters. Owning any of them now is good. Stock prices have had quite a run, so the prices already reflect raised dividend potential.
N/A
Market. Tech names have PE ratios in the hundreds. Other stocks are in the teens. There is a big disparity. The FANG stocks' multiples have come down. They are priced to perfection. It's going to be hard for the FANG stocks to grow at 20-30% over the next few years. You hit saturation. This is where you risk PE ratio compression, which can be detrimental to price.
COMMENT
Educational Segment. The focus is on disruptive technology and innovative themes. This reminds him of the tech bubble in the 2000s. Some of these companies don't exist anymore. You run into market cycles where a lot of good news is priced in. The best stock in the past decade in the big cap space is Amazon. Intel has not come above the peak in the 2000s. Same with Cisco from the 90s. What stocks today are the Amazons and which one is a Cisco? We don't know.
COMMENT
The reconciliation bill is coming up. The budget ceiling and everything else was kicked down the road but it is coming up. It will go down to the wire. He does not think the US will default. The markets will be watching this. There is also China that cracked down on education firms but now they are allowing it now. There is a lot of noice. Feds also started tapering. 2022-2023 is about Fed tapering and less liquidity in the financial markets. Analyst targets for next year aren't much higher than today since the market has been pushed up by easy money policy.
COMMENT
Looking at the historical pattern of bond yields as QE is eased, the yield curve flattens. This flattens because they are worried about an economic slowdown. It is not bullish. Inflation pressure is new this time.
COMMENT
A key inflection point will be the mid-term elections. Based on last week's elections, the GOP will retain control of the senate and the lower house. This will mean lower spending and a fiscal cliff. Coupled with feds pulling liquidity, this will be a challenge. We could go higher in the next 3-4 months, but in a year, he expects it to be flat.
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