A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

For sure. Of course, macro's always on our minds. Macro stuff will come and go. In the short term he doesn't care what anyone's predictions for gold or interest rates or inflation are. Most people are wrong anyway.

He always tells clients that you have to figure out what type of investor you are. At his firm they're long-term, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch-style investors. Focus on owning great-quality companies that offer some reasonable certainty that they'll be selling more of a product or service in the next 3-5 years.

There have been huge reactions to lots of stocks where there's been no impact on earnings, but the narrative is driving the story. The market's forgetting the most important thing when it comes to investing -- it's the mathematics of future cashflows. For example, MSFT reported last week with no indication of software being disrupted, yet the stock sank. 

When stocks report earnings, you never know what the reaction is going to be. He's going to keep focusing on company results. Not conjecture, not what someone says on X.

Fact is, we should feel pretty good about markets heading into 2026. Corporate earnings are extremely strong, with another year of probably double-digit earnings growth. Interest rates have come down a lot. Inflation seems to be pretty tame. What more do you want?

There's an advantage to owning companies that have already built up billions of customers, such as AAPL, MSFT, V, or AMZN. Especially when they have such strong goodwill from customers, and they keep adding products and services. 

In this day and age we don't know what's going on with AI, and the consumer's really frightened about how the world's going to look. You want to stick with companies that have the best brands, best distribution, and best marketing that you can trust.

He expected the gold correction, and the downside could last months or years. In 2011 or 2012, gold peaked at $1,900 and it took more than a decade to return to those highs. Gold could go higher, but it could easily correct again. Gold's 200-day moving average is around $3,700 now, and we'll probably test that. Don't buy today, but wait.  He doesn't expect to return to the highs for a while. Kevin Warsh was probably the best choice as new US Fed Chair, and the market felt some relief with that choice though have we solved the US debt issue? His historic views have been critical of the Fed, but he expects these to come. Among this week's earnings, he's watching Google and Amazon and what they will say. What Microsoft earlier said about the cloud and Azure is partly why MSFT shares are down. If Amazon said the same thing, that could trouble the broader markets. Tesla is an example of shareholders punishing a company for not saying what they want to hear (phasing out some EV car models and focusing more on self-driving cars).

Great question that applies to probably 50% of the show's viewers. Regulators won't allow him to answer the question, but he strongly suggests hiring a professional advisor.

He likes private credit funds which are better than Canadian total return ETFs. These funds pay dividend yield of 6-8%, while some target 10-12%, but there are risks. Go to CAIA to see the risk breakdown: 0-6% can be multi-strategy funds, convertible arbitrage, long-short credit, global macros; 6-11% event-driven, CTA/futures; 11-16% emerging markets; over 16% digital assets. These are illiquid, so you may not get your money out quickly. If you don't need money ready, then consider these funds.

The S&P remains in a secular bull market with more momentum to come--the 13-, 26- and 40-week moving averages are moving up. Former resistance of $6,920 is now a support level. If it can't hold that, then $6,845 is the next level of support. She would buy at that level. She's worry if it fell to last October's low of $6,550. In the S&P equal weight chart, the  the 13-, 26- and 40-week moving averages are moving up ever higher than the non-EW chart. Again, this chart has broken above the last resistance ($7.896) to become the new support. The rally has broadened nicely, away from megacaps. He thinks it's good that the rally is broadening, but because of weakness in the Bitcoin chart, we won't see a repeat of 2025's strong gains.

No new show today. Repeat broadcast from yesterday.

We started 2026 with an almost-Goldilocks approach. Yesterday, both the BOC and The Fed indicated they were happy with where rates were in the short term. Thinks the trend is lower, which would be supportive of markets. It's kind of wait and see.

In his portfolios, he's been adopting a sit-on-his-hands approach. Yesterday the S&P 500 touched all-time highs. Volatility in general is low, but today we're seeing a bit of a spike. He's keeping his portfolios in line and looking to add some positions here and there.

Surprised by how resilient it's been. The consumer is still the #1 piece. As corporate earnings come in, he's seeing a lot of announcements coupled with layoffs. That's one of the risks out there and what could sidetrack momentum.

In both Canada and the US it's consumption, for the most part, that drives the overall economy.

We've seen some fiscal policy out of Ottawa that could drive some positive momentum. It'll be up to leadership to continue on that path. If actions follow all the nice words, that could be a lot of potential for Canada. It would be a key driver in the resources sector, materials, and even energy.

If we can start to forge other trade relationships, that would be very positive for Canada.

Hopeful, but these projects take a long time. We need to see some shovels in the ground. The Davos speech last week was fantastic, but can we actually get some physical action and momentum going?

Really tough question. If you already have a position in gold, you're in good shape. He'd look to lower your weight in those positions. He would not take a brand-new position in gold here. Gold's done well, and silver's gone parabolic, so he'd be inclined to take some off the table.

There will be a pullback, and he imagines that it will be quite violent. If you're going to go into something, try XGD. There are also some mixed bullion ETFs.

Mag 7 has come off, and today they're really getting hit. But that's OK. For the market to keep going, you need rotation from sector to sector. Though it may be a "tech wreck" today, of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, 7 were still positive when he left for the studio. There will be give and take, depending on the day.

He still likes the outlook for technology. The pause may be what it needs to shake out some people, and then it can accelerate again.