A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

TOP PICK
Physical gold. Gold is one of the most liquid markets in the world. You can rapidly convert your gold back into paper money. The only game here is to preserve your capital. If assets get cheaper, you want to have buying power.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: - Last week’s draw on gas was one of the largest there has been in a long, long time. The wrench in this is what will happen with Liquid Natural Gas and this is a bit of overhang. Doesn't expect to see anything too aggressive until at least next winter. Could be more weakness this summer.
COMMENT
Junior Golds: Junior explorers/miners have a long way to recover in terms of the bullion price. Everyone is risk adverse and they go into the large caps first and then to the commodity. Now you have a situation where the leverage to some of the small-cap names is quite dramatic. If gold goes to $1000 or $1100 you'll get giant swings on some of the small cap stocks that have been ignored. He thinks June or July could be possible for $1100.
COMMENT
Silver: Thinks it has more potential than gold. Shortages could be acute. Above ground inventories are very low. There are limited Silver stocks available. Silver Wheaton (SLW-T) would be one way to play it once Goldcorp (G-T) gets out of the way.
COMMENT
Oil: Nothing has changed about basic fundamentals. Total production will be on an undulating plateau but into an irreversible decline. Prices will gradually rise from about $70 to about $95 over the next 10 years or so. Last fall's price was a total aberration caused by a mistake that the Saudis made. Very attractive investment environment for both oil and gas going forward
COMMENT
Natural Gas: Total Production in the US peaked several years ago and is levelling out in Canada. He is anticipating a significant long-term irreversible decline and prices will have to be high enough to cause a decline in consumption. There has been an aberration for the last 2 years, primarily because production has been restrained by developing tight gas through closer and closer drilling as well as new techniques. Prices will rise gradually from $7 to about $11 during the next 7 years. Very attractive investment environment for both oil and gas going forward
COMMENT
Market Outlook: He noticed that when the market was going down, it was on high volume but when it was going up, it was on low-volume and was rallying to lower highs. This shows a lack of conviction on the rallies. Indicates the market has further down to go. Would not put too much new money into the market yet.
DON'T BUY
US Banks: Still more cockroaches to come. It looks like, in the short run, US banks have bottomed but he can't say this for sure. Wait until there is more clarity.
COMMENT
Uranium Prices: Has been quite negative in the last few weeks. Expect it will retest the August lows of $75. This would be the time you want to re-enter the uranium sector.
DON'T BUY
Forestry: This has not reached its lows. There are still too many houses being built in the US, given demand. Also, pulp prices have not been that strong.
COMMENT
Gold: Doesn’t think of this as a safe haven as historically, it has proven not to be.
COMMENT
Oil: For the first time, in 2007, physical demand of about 87 million barrels was greater than physical supply of 86 million so inventories drop in prices went up. Believes that in the 2nd quarter of 2008, after Saudi Arabia brings on their new field of 500,000 barrels, there will be no new production coming on from OPEC. We will have to find 4 million or 7 million new barrels a year. It is conceivable that oil will be $150 by 2010.
COMMENT
Gold Formula: US recession plus US economy really weak plus really low US rates equals an international week US dollar and stronger gold prices.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: A year from now he expects the Canadian price to be in the $7.75 to $8.50 range. Expected to be about 10% higher in the US.
BUY
Gold: Would say that it is still heading up. The gurus are saying that it should go through $1000. The mines are more interesting than they used to be and it is validly a sector. Would buy the companies, but not the ETF’s.
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