Lock in some gains. Look for big, stable, high-income businesses to re-invest in. Base Metals, oils are doing their own thing. By this time next year, we may have cleaned up over capacity in natural gas.
Natural gas. Commodity prices reflecting a more bullish market but he is not sure of that yet. Depends on what winter is like. Storage levels are very full in US and Canada and doubts if we can use it all up this winter. Worries that we come out of winter with 1.5 to 2 TCF of gas left in storage and we start going into the build up season again. Thinks it will take 18 months to recover.
Crude oil. Thinks the price is very fair right now. $60 to $80 a barrel is in the right range. Over the very short term, his bias is negative because there is a lot in storage but long-term the current price is reasonable.
Junior Market. Not in the shape that it once was. Credit crisis impacted them severely. Hot/speculative money has not come back to the Junior market. Also, its audience has shrunk.
Markets. A correction is happening but there is a sector rotation happening, which is why you don't see the correction too much. Banks are going to be weaker and golds continue to be strong creating a rotation, which is why the TSX doesn't go down. The index could come back 10500-10250. This does not mean the end of the Bull market.
Buying Puts on stocks you own is a great strategy for a market like this. A way to pay a small premium today for what could be a disaster down the road. The one caveat is that Puts are not cheap.
Gold. He tends to buy gold itself through an ETF such as Comex Gold ETF (HUG-T) or SPDR Gold (GLD-N). He has a problem with buying single companies because of possible Operating problems. iUnits Gold (XGD-T) gives you a basket of senior producers.
Markets are fully valued. It was due for a pull back and we are getting it and hopefully we get a little more. You should be buying on weakness over the next couple of weeks. Technology, rails and transportation are going to benefit. The US banks could be bought on a pull-back business. Canada is a great place to invest in general. You have 55% of capitalization amongst Canada and the US. CAD$ will continue to be a strong currency.
Market: - Looking for a correction of 4%-5% between now and year-end but could be a little sooner than looking for a positive market. About 15%-20% cash in his conservative accounts. Heaviest weighting is energy. Limited amount in base metals and 15%-20% in gold. Banks are roughly 10%.
Canadian Banks: - Expecting earnings increases in 2010 over 2009 of about 1%-1.5% but going up to 10%-15% in 2011. Likes the banks and even if you have to wait for 2011 earnings will be much higher.
Bonds. Because there is no inflation, he thinks rates are going to go drop making this a pretty good time to buy. In particular, 10-year bonds are going to fall at about .5%. For terms of maturity, he would suggest 5 to 7 years.
US treasury bonds. He is bullish on government bonds and thinks they are going to go to 3%. He uses ten-year bonds, which are at 3.5%. Rates are going to fall.
Convertible bonds. There are some risks. They are subordinate to any other debt the company has. You also have to be very comfortable with the equity that they are converted to. A “buyer beware” market right now.
Corporate bonds. There are still opportunities in the Canadian bond market that has seen a very strong contraction in credit spreads from the beginning of the year. We still haven't reached what is considered as normal levels.