A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Markets. We are in a bit of a trading range. Currently we are in the classic tug-of-war. Are earnings better or worse than expectations? Also rising interest rates are not boding well for equities in the longer run. But interest rates are low and will stay low and earnings are good. There is also lots of dividend growth.
COMMENT
Markets. Thinks this is the last time the Greeks can go to the trough and will have to see what happens after that. When that settles in and people are happy with that, the markets could have a good run. If it doesn't, the markets could have check back but that would be a buying opportunity.
N/A
Markets: A bit of a rotation into cyclical stocks and this put pressure on dividend stocks. REITs have had a run but net operating income will remain and higher valuations are indicative of higher net asset values.
COMMENT
Markets. US financial sector has been looking appealing for the last few years. There is also a turnaround in the US housing sector. Since the end of November until now, a lot of the companies on his watch list have really moved by 20%-25% so are less attractive now. On the Canadian side there is very little of interest for a contrarian.
COMMENT
What kind of banks would you be interested in putting into a TFSA account? He puts really boring, guaranteed GIC kind of thing. He doesn't put stocks in it but that doesn't mean you shouldn't.
COMMENT
Markets. There are some very positive numbers coming out of the US recently. People seem to be a lot more confident about the economy. There can't be an excessive amount of growth given the excessive amount of debt. Doesn't expect the world to grow at 5% but expects 2%-3%.
N/A
Markets: The market is getting a little over bought and is showing signs of complacency. It is very much unlike what we had all of last year with the volatility. Markets take breathers. They keep investors honest by throwing a curve ball when you least expect it. It is a healthy thing for markets to correct. Will be a fairly shallow correction of about 3-5%. We should budget 7-9% rate of return this year in the equity markets. Housing sector is not nearly off the bottom and the banks are challenged. Other areas are doing fairly well.
BUY
Healthcare or Technology: Technology has more exciting fundamentals and better growth, more innovation and at a cheaper price. Stays away from pure pharmas because it is difficult to make money in the pharmas. You spend a lot of money up front and then there are the patent issues (time limit). Prefers ABT in healthcare because it is hybrid – diagnostic and nutrition.
N/A
Markets: Since 2008, everybody has been fearful but particularly the individual. Last year the fear came raging back and there is more money under the mattress than ever before. You are looking at 7 or 8% in North American markets.
COMMENT
Growth VS Value: Growth has to do with momentum. Value is when it is trading less than book value.
COMMENT
Markets. Have gotten off to a great start and most of it is on the improving economic point data coming out of the US in terms of jobless claims, job creation and consumer confidence. This is outweighing the deteriorating economic data coming out of Europe.
COMMENT
REITs. Pretty rosy picture right now but it has morphed into a stock picker's market, that is, the sector is not universally cheap. Historically has traded on an average of 14X free cash flow and today it is trading at 16, well below the peak of 20X a while about the cost of 8X.
DON'T BUY
Centurion Apartment REIT. A private REIT, which owns exclusively apartment buildings spread out around south-western Ontario. Management is highly respected. There is so many high quality apartment REITs in the publicly traded market that he sees no need to invest in this one.
COMMENT
US markets. It won't be great investing in the US, but it won't be horrible either. It will be slow, steady and plodding. Good news is that corporations are generally flush with cash. His key to investing is to go with companies whose profits are rising and have lots of cash. Governments, federal and states, will be cash strapped.
COMMENT
Gold. Trending higher but hasn't got back to its highs of August-September. Doesn't know if we have seen the peak for this cycle or not. Not big on gold but he tends to own 1 or 2 gold stocks as insurance.
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