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Stock Opinions by Randall Abramson

STRONG BUY
Specialty paper/chemical company, which makes pulp into rayon. Likes this lot. Stock has corrected because of market sentiment against commodity related stocks. Also, the company is a couple of quarters behind. Should be at 90% of production by the end of June. 2nd mill goes on line at the end of 2013. Low-cost producer. Reasonably good balance sheet. Trading at about 4-5 times expected earnings. Should free cash flow $6-$7 a share starting June 30. Worth $60-$70 and going to over $100 in the next 3 years.
paper products / business forms
COMMENT
Gold group has come off in the last month or 2 because 1) general correction in commodities and 2) higher costs. This one has had production delays, didn't meet expected guidance and a recent large issue to raise funds. Looks like they are bottoming out. Golds should start going up again.
precious metals
STRONG BUY
Next-door neighbour to Lake Shore Gold (LSG-T). One of his largest positions. Had some operational issues last year where costs went up higher than expected and production was lower than expected. Now back on track. Making a very good profit margin. Should do $.12-$.14 in earnings this year and going higher next year.
precious metals
BUY
The whole group has come off because a) oil has come off a little and b) the fear factor of a soft landing in China escalating into a hard landing. There is currently a very tight market.
integrated oils
COMMENT
They are cleaning up. Liked the recent announcement of a cleanup of the systems. Doesn't seem to be acting any different than other big grocery chains in North America. With low inflation, it is difficult for grocers to make headway. Looks like competition is growing.
food stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/11. Down 57.57%.) Still likes. Very cheap. Has been hurt because of the atrocious gas prices. Have 3 significant plays, one gas and 2 potential oils. Expect they will have a partner for some of these.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/11. Up 7.06%.)
electrical / electronic
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/11. Up 53.47%.) Sold a quarter of his position Friday because they were up so much. Still likes. Trading at about 10X earnings.
electrical / electronic
TOP PICK
Trading at 50% of its fair value. Still in early stages although they are currently doing 2000 barrels a day. Have guided to 4000 barrels. Have guided to $48 million of cash flow starting at the end of this year. Trades at about 2X cash flow. Potential to cash flow more than its share price in 3 years.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
TOP PICK
BestBuy.com is growing at 30%-40% and forecasting another double digit growth for this year. Growing in China. Shrinking back there big box stores.
specialty stores
TOP PICK
About 85% of their business is oil. Looking for 25% more production as well as more earnings per share growth, etc. Should be about $25 of value in 3 years. Drilled about 99 wells last year and hit all 99.
oil / gas
N/A
Markets: Since 2008, everybody has been fearful but particularly the individual. Last year the fear came raging back and there is more money under the mattress than ever before. You are looking at 7 or 8% in North American markets.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Prefers American Eagle (AEO-N). Clothing retailers move between 8 and 20% margins. Buy them at low margins and hold for 24%. A dividend while you wait helps.
merchandising / lodging
DON'T BUY
Has not been growing in the recent past. Semefo (SMF-T) is more interesting to him, although it is fairly valued and he would prefer to buy it on weakness.
precious metals
DON'T BUY
Attractive, but not incredibly. SU is closer to fair value than the broader market. An issue with oil prices goes away shortly. Prefers others, such as one of his top picks.
integrated oils
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