A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. Has been favouring foreign stocks for the last couple of years. For the foreseeable future, Cdn investors have to look outside of Canada, not just the US, but globally. Until now, he has avoided going directly into emerging markets. Looks for valuation, dividends and growth prospects. For the 1^st time in 35 years, his equity weightings are higher outside of Canada than in.

Markets. Doesn’t think there will be any change after this Wednesday’s Fed meeting. They won’t change until October. They may discuss future changes. The uptick on the unemployment rate prevents them doing anything now. Emerging market bonds have sold off dramatically in the last couple of months. But he thinks emerging markets both in equities and bonds are compelling. Thinks copper will dip below $3. He is negative for the next 6 months on Copper.

Markets. REITs have pulled off a little in the last few weeks. The world panicked at the Fed announcement and bond yield increase but this was very overdone. He focuses his portfolio to expect slowly increasing interest rates – 2.5% end of this year, 3% end of next year. He has sold off more highly levered plays. Don’t go for the higher yield these days.

Educational Segment. BXF-T is a way to play the bond market with strip bonds. He has non-couponed bonds in a ladder. But you can put these in a taxable account because there is no coupon. There is no management fee for the first year.

Markets. This is the end of a trend for the particular interest-sensitive stocks and the end of the 30 year bull market in bonds. We could have a pause in equities. The last thirty days in the markets has seen a big change and it is a shift of investors going out of interest-sensitive stocks and into cyclical names. Good time to move money out of bonds and into equities. He is positioned defensively for his clients – more cash than normal. We could see some choppiness in the markets in the next little while.

Long PG-N and Short JNJ-N? Great businesses but because of demand for yield have had huge moves and are trading at multiples that are too high for their growth profile. Not a bad pairs trade, but instead he would short staples ETF and long Cyclicals ETF.

Would silver ever pass by gold in price? It would have to go a long way so he doesn’t see that. Silver is a more leveraged way to play gold. Silver has more demands but gold is more of a currency. Likes gold and silver but has small positions. Every investor should have some small weighting of gold and silver as a hedge. He uses ETFs (GLD or SLV).

Markets. The US will experience pretty decent DGP growth but it will stretch out a little bit further. Relatively low inflation and high unemployment and lot more room for growth. You are starting to see the US economy turn in the right direction. Our economy in Canada will do well as the US does well. If a company in Canada exports to the US they will benefit. Likes good management teams, relatively strong balance sheet with good organic growth potential. Looks for dividend growers.

Markets. May 22 we had a bearish key reversal in US and Canadian markets - an engulfing pattern on an equity index. The Hindenburg Omen indicator also happened - it implies the markets are past a short term peak and are showing extreme volatility. You got a large number of stocks hitting new highs as well as a large number hitting new lows. The death cross occurred also - the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average. He doesn’t necessarily believe in the death cross but a lot of analysts watch it. He is 77% in cash. He does selective seasonal trades in the summer.

Dow. It recently broke below its 20 day moving average. It broke a short term trading range about a week ago. It is slightly outperforming the S&P, so one of the indicators is actually positive. His downside target is 14,400 for the correction. If Dow goes below its 50 day moving average, look out below.

Gold Stocks. Historically they are building bases at this time of year until mid to end of July and then move significantly higher. Season ends in Oct.

Markets. He looks at tangible book value and cash flow, PE multiples, hidden assets like tax carry forwards. He is a stock picker. It is a bottom up approach. Exploration, production and service companies in oil are favourable. They often trade below tangible book and replacement value. There is a disconnect between investor and market sentiment. No one is talking about the S&P upgrading government debt in the US.

Markets. He is holding about 40% in cash. However, S&P 500 is starting to show support at the 50 day moving average so he might start to deploy the cash. Starting to see some Buy signals. Historically there is some softness until the end of June and then the markets start to pick up. In Canada there has been a major outflow from some of the interest sensitive sectors, which had been the leading sectors over the past few years. However, metals, golds, precious metals are starting to base, i.e., they are not making lower lows. Wouldn’t buy the sectors yet but is waiting for a breakout.

S&P 500. Chart shows a strong upward trend that has formed a channel from late 2011. The top of the channel was hit a short while ago and the S&P has been bouncing off the 50 day moving average. Bounced twice in the past 2 weeks. If the 50 day moving average does not hold over the next week or 2, he suggests that the lowest point they could get to would be in the mid-$1500’s.

Golds. Gold is basing and has found support at around $1350. Typically on a seasonal basis, gold moves sometime between July and the fall and it looks like it is right on schedule to do that again. This is a great play.