A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

We could be on one of three paths: 1) This is a quick bear market (i.e. Covid 2020), 2) year 2000 bear market when tech was laid to waste for a long time, or 3) the big kahuna of October 1987 when the market went down hard on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday then harder on Black Monday, falling 22%. Fortunately, we saw an excellent set of employment numbers, which may make it less likely that a stock market crash will lead to a recession, but if Trump stays stubborn and does nothing to lessen the damage the last few days, he will not be constructive (though contain his anger). None of this has to happen. If Europe moves against our tech companies with tariffs on Monday, we could see another crash, like Black Monday.

Tariffs have plunged the tariffs by over 2000 points. How can we focus on the long term when the short term is a horror show? Tariffs are incoherent, enormous, not reciprocal--and needless. It's like Trump wanted to be as dramatic as possible, like a TV show, not like he's running a country. But the stock market doesn't want Trump or a TV show. We want a president that can get things done and not throw us into a recession. He should be worried about a crash or recession which looks very possible. Mr. President, don't cause a crash--it will be your legacy.

Trying to Time the Market is a Fool's Errand

There is a reason that trying to time market bottoms and tops are what most would call a ‘fool’s errand’, and this is mostly because market bottoms and tops are exclusively obvious in hindsight, but also because it goes against our basic human nature. When the markets are declining day after day, and there is seemingly no end in sight, our instincts are to assume that this trend will continue and fear that the markets will not recover for quite some time. On the contrary, when markets are rising day after day, it is easy to believe that this trend will continue and human emotions stoke a fear that selling at those levels would be ‘too early’. Calling the winter market top of 2021 is now obvious in hindsight – inflation was picking up and the Fed was preparing for higher rates and reduced liquidity, but yet most investors chose not to sell – why? We believe that it is because most investors believed that the markets would continue their climb higher, as was the case in the latter part of 2020 and throughout 2021. Investors’ fear of selling at that point and regretting selling too early was high. 
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Last time we saw this was in March 2020, when everybody thought we were all going to die. Markets came back fairly quickly from that. This has a bit of a different feel to it.

We haven't had a proper bear market in NA since 2009. We've had 16 years of a bull market punctuated by some minimal corrections. So it could be that we're seeing the market turn over here, possibly heading for a bear market.

The Mag 7 have really been the ones leading the market downward. Those were the ones with the highest multiples and that have been lagging the market at least since the inauguration.

Other sectors are doing relatively well. With all the tariffs on retail products that are generally made in developing countries, it's surprising that dollar stores and COST are actually up today.

There are some good and proper times to panic, and he's not sure that today is one of them. If the tariffs had been less robust than feared, the markets would be on a tear the other way. Right now, he has a reasonable amount of cash (between 20-40%) in portfolios.

If you're adding to your portfolio on a regular basis, either by investing cash that's stored up or by regular contributions, these correction days are actually really helpful. These days provide excellent buying opportunities, even if markets go down further tomorrow. 

For stocks that you'd always wanted to get in on, today's not a half bad day to start. If you have $10k to invest, invest $2k today. It'll be easier to make the next decision tomorrow if you started with a smaller one today. If the market goes down, at least you have $8k left; if the market goes up, thank goodness you started to buy.

Yes. They didn't stop paying dividends even during the 2008 financial crisis. Except for MFC, all financial services companies also kept their dividends. At the best of times, it's a severe, career-interrupting move to cancel a dividend. For a Canadian bank, it would be catastrophic. 

Some are stronger than others. RY is the 800-pound gorilla that all the others are chasing. TD has had its issues in the US; but you'll notice it's up from the time US sanctions were imposed. All are resilient, a fiercely protected species.

If there's one thing the market doesn't like, it's uncertainty. And we've definitely seen that this year, a bit of a rollercoaster. Doesn't know why the market's up right now. Market's looking for some clarity, as she and everyone else are. 

You want to be able to digest the news and then take it from there. Have to assess the repercussions on Canadian, US, and global markets.

Probably, but the US administration has also said that there's room for negotiation. We've already seen it before, where tariffs have been stated, then reneged on, then postponed. We're all tired of trying to figure out what the implications are.

All we can do is our best in trying to formulate a portfolio that's resilient in any kind of tariff situation. Rather than what amount the tariffs are, the more important question is how long they remain in place.

Automotive and transportation for sure. Consumer discretionary. These are all sectors that her firm didn't have much exposure in to start with, and not because of tariffs. Their portfolios have always been more defensive, shying away from cyclicality. 

She likes a consistent dividend stream. As a result, their client portfolios are focused on utilities, pipelines, telcos, and the like. As it turns out, those sectors aren't prone to tariffs. So their portfolios have been performing really well as people make the flight to safety. Her firm has always liked the flight to safety, it's just that it's more popular now than it was last year.

Yes. They recommended this course of action last year when there was the huge risk-on sentiment related to AI. They were buying defensive names at cheaper prices. Now those defensive names are trading a little more expensively, as money has flown out of the risky stocks and into safe havens. As well, money's come out of the US and into areas such as Canada, which is where her firm has always been.

Still, those defensive names have resilience and can outperform in any kind of market environment. Especially as we're going into a period of potential economic weakness and more volatility.

Oligopolies, good businesses for the long term. But a lot of the growth seen over the last 10 years is behind them. There's been lots of consolidation in the space. Economic growth is a bit uncertain in Canada right now, in addition to the impact tariffs. Have to consider how each one manages with cost-cutting to increase margins.

Take a look at RY and TD.

Lots of Canadian names are exposed to the US. That tariffs on energy were initially announced at 10%, and not 25%, goes to show how much the US depends on Canadian oil & gas. Working to export gas to Asian markets, which would alleviate some of the risk.

The move in the CAD since tariffs were announced alleviates the impact of the 10% tariff. She's still confident on the Canadian oil and gas sector, despite the risk of tariffs.

Welcome to the world of dividends! She invests in dividends for clients at any stage of investing, but understands the extra motivation for dividends and stability as a person inches toward retirement. 

Last year, they were earning 4.8% on client funds invested in money market funds. This let them have the patience to ease into the market. Seeing more volatility in markets this year, which is good if you're seeking to deploy some cash. The yield on cash has come down significantly in the past year, especially in Canada with the BOC dropping rates. It's now only ~2.5%, and that's not enough to live on. So you're more attracted to investing in high-dividend-earning stocks.

Could we see more volatility in the market? Absolutely. She'd probably get 1/3 in now, and wait and see. On days when the market's taking a beating, buy more. And do it selectively. The pipeline space, for example, is still giving you about a 6% dividend yield. A name like Telus is also one to consider. Still some good opportunities for yield, without the crazy valuations. Selling some of those high-flying tech names at 30-50x PE and buying a utility at 20x PE, doesn't seem so expensive on a relative basis.