Jim Lebenthal Exxon Mobil XOM-N BUY Aug 02, 2024

His firm is doing some research on nuclear power and electricity generators. Hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Likes the idea of data centres driving change in electricity demand. 

This name is about 2/3 oil production, and 1/3 natural gas. Also 13-14 refineries well-placed in the US and elsewhere. Chemical products business. New management has improved margins. Will benefit from Trump trade. Timely entry point.

Oil price is low, OPEC is extending cuts. Expectations of a slower economy impacts demand. May also see challenges if Trump encourages oil production. The challenges are showing up in the oil stocks. 

CNQ chart shows a breakdown, negative profile. He'd hold off for both. Next seasonally strong time is February, perhaps late January. At that time, he'd prefer CNQ.

Is overvalued vs. Chevron. Don't own any oil stocks, because of their high PE which limits their yields.

Amazing capital allocators. Only problem is that political leaders think oil usage is obsolete. A must-own.

It reports Friday. He won't buy any oils, because these companies could cave to Trump's demands of drilling like mad. He thinks they will stay disciplined.

He's bullish energy and this is the must-buy. Scale will matter and XOM can spread its costs over a wide base.

They report Friday. He doubts they will report anything positive because of the low price of oil.

It's tough being overweight energy now with WTI negative on a YOY basis and badly underperforms the market.

Shareholder returns are a little lighter than peers. Valuation a bit higher than peers. Cashflow per share growth is in line with peers, as is the payout ratio. Balance sheet better than peers. 

How many boxes does it tick? Ends up being fair. He wouldn't be buying a big oil company right now in front of the OPEC meeting.

A name to consider instead of CVX.