Opinions
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
Exxon Mobil
XOM-N
DON'T BUY
Mar 13, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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His firm is doing some research on nuclear power and electricity generators. Hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Likes the idea of data centres driving change in electricity demand.
This name is about 2/3 oil production, and 1/3 natural gas. Also 13-14 refineries well-placed in the US and elsewhere. Chemical products business. New management has improved margins. Will benefit from Trump trade. Timely entry point.
Oil price is low, OPEC is extending cuts. Expectations of a slower economy impacts demand. May also see challenges if Trump encourages oil production. The challenges are showing up in the oil stocks.
CNQ chart shows a breakdown, negative profile. He'd hold off for both. Next seasonally strong time is February, perhaps late January. At that time, he'd prefer CNQ.
Shareholder returns are a little lighter than peers. Valuation a bit higher than peers. Cashflow per share growth is in line with peers, as is the payout ratio. Balance sheet better than peers.
How many boxes does it tick? Ends up being fair. He wouldn't be buying a big oil company right now in front of the OPEC meeting.
From a technical perspective, the stock looks bad. It has had a big fall-off. Going from $88 to $76 is a big drop for a stock like this. There is some buying support, the yield is not bad, but he would recommend caution and a tight stop, perhaps $72 and would not expect a near-term rise higher than $78. There is probably going to be a period of consolidation.